Tromsø vs Brann Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Alfheim Stadion Wed, 29 Apr - 5:00 PM
Eliteserien
Tromsø Tromsø
0 Winner 5
Brann SKB
Full Time Wed, 29 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 17 Regular Season
|
Goal
Markus Haaland - 90+3'
Ulrik Mathisen - 50'
K. Ingason - 37', 22', 19'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Tromsø 0–5 Brann. The result saw Brann take the points. Brann showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 53%–47%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result exhibited minimal 3% structural deviation favoring Brann.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market assessments.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No impactful events or second-half adjustments recorded.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Kringstad

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Langseth

1st Assistant

M. Lokkeberg

2nd Assistant

E. Bertheussen

4th Official

Tromsø J. Vik
J. Vik
VS
Brann F. Alexandersson
F. Alexandersson
2.55
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.73
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sandefjord Rank: W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: W
Lillestrøm Rank: D
Kristiansund Rank: W
Rosenborg Rank: W
Brann Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rosenborg Rank: D
Viking Rank: L
Sandefjord Rank: L
HamKam Rank: W
Tromsø Rank: L
Kristiansund Rank: L
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 9 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tromsø
0.64%
Draw
2.37%
Away Brann
96.99%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
38.58
19.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tromsø
Brann
Power Score
38.58
19.52
League Position
1
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tromsø — Opponent-weighted form score
Brann — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tromsø Brann

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Tromsø

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Brann

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brann
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.26
32.66
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.66
42.26
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Tromsø +0.98 Efficiency Index
vs
Brann -0.98 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Brann
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brann
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Tromsø Brann
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Tromsø Brann
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Brann
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Tromsø
vs
Brann
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Tromsø Brann
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Tromsø 0.28
Brann 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Tromsø Brann
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Tromsø 0.11
Brann 0.00
Tromsø
Brann
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SKB had peak pressure around 39'.
  • Tromsø started the game with stronger pressure.
Tromsø Pressure SKB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SKB reached the top pressure at 39' (65.61).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tromsø Tromsø Home
35 matches
Brann SKB Away
Match Record
13
Wins
13
9
Draws
9
13
Losses
13
Goals
49
Goals Scored
50
50
Goals Conceded
49
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
2
xG
1.30
1.30
xGA
2

Data last updated: 2026-04-30T00:01:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
J. Haugaard
Denmark
1 J. Haugaard
L. Jean Cornic
Norway
2 L. Jean Cornic
I. Vådebu
Norway
30 I. Vådebu
T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
Norway
21 T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
A. Kinteh
Substitution
25 A. Kinteh
A. Warneryd
Substitution
Sweden
29 A. Warneryd
D. Edvardsson
Sweden
5 D. Edvardsson
R. Yttergård Jenssen
Substitution
Norway
11 R. Yttergård Jenssen
J. Hjertø-Dahl
Norway
6 J. Hjertø-Dahl
L. Larsen
Norway
7 L. Larsen
H. Larsen
Substitution
Norway
22 H. Larsen
Pitch
S. Nilsen
Norway
12 S. Nilsen
V. Winger Dragsnes
Norway
20 V. Winger Dragsnes
T. Pedersen
Norway
23 T. Pedersen
F. Pallesen Knudsen
Substitution
Norway
3 F. Pallesen Knudsen
D. De Roeve
Substitution
Belgium
21 D. De Roeve
F. Horn Myhre
Norway
8 F. Horn Myhre
J. Sørensen
Denmark
18 J. Sørensen
K. Ingason
Substitution
Iceland
10 K. Ingason
J. Thorsteinsson
Substitution
Iceland
7 J. Thorsteinsson
K. Eriksen
Norway
16 K. Eriksen
U. Mathisen
Substitution
Norway
14 U. Mathisen

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 29, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 17 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Alfheim Stadion
Capacity :
6687
Attendance :
5221
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Runar Langseth
Monica Lokkeberg
Egil Bertheussen
Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Statistics

Possession
Tromsø
53%
SKB
47%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 5
0 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 5
68 Dangerous attacks 47
53 Possession 47
6 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 18
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
6 Successful Dribbles 2
29 Throwins 21
22 Dribble Attempts 14
4 Goal Kicks 8
0 Assists 1
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 14
92 Ball Safe 106
1 Injuries 1
7 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

108 Attacks 92
0 Counter Attacks 1

Possession

37 Successful Long Passes 22
66 Long Passes 67
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
507 Passes 474
79 Successful Passes Percentage 78
403 Successful Passes 370
10 Key Passes 2

Defensive

2 Saves 4
8 Interceptions 11
42 Duels Won 58
13 Tackles 24

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 2
11 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

18 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Starting XI ▼

1
Jakob Haugaard
Jakob Haugaard Goalkeeper
7.1
2
Leo Cornic
Leo Cornic Defender
7.24
21
Tobias Guddal
Tobias Guddal Defender
7.35
25
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh Defender
7.48
4
Vetle Skjærvik
Vetle Skjærvik
Defender46'
7.31
29
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd Defender
7.1
37
Sander Innvær
Sander Innvær
Midfielder46'
6.45
30
Isak Vådebu
Isak Vådebu Defender
7.06
5
David Edvardsson
David Edvardsson Midfielder
7.21
6
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Jens Hjertø-Dahl Midfielder
7.38
11
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen Midfielder
7.29
10
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Midfielder68'
6.58
7
Lars Olden Larsen
Lars Olden Larsen Attacker
7.04
22
Heine Åsen Larsen
Heine Åsen Larsen Attacker
7.04
9
Daniel Braut
Daniel Braut
Attacker46'
6.78
Referee : Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Starting XI ▼

12
S. Nilsen
S. Nilsen Goalkeeper
6.71
3
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen Defender
6.88
6
Cheikh Mbacke
Cheikh Mbacke
Defender61'
6.72
20
V. Dragsnes
V. Dragsnes Defender
6.43
21
Denzel De Roeve
Denzel De Roeve Defender
7.02
17
Joachim Soltvedt
Joachim Soltvedt
Defender46'
6.93
23
Thore Pedersen
Thore Pedersen Defender
6.7
8
Felix Horn Myhre
Felix Horn Myhre Midfielder
6.97
10
K. Ingason
K. Ingason Midfielder
3
6.62
25
Niklas Jensen Wassberg
Niklas Jensen Wassberg
Midfielder76'
6.51
18
Jacob Lungi Sørensen
Jacob Lungi Sørensen Midfielder
7.12
7
Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson
Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson Attacker
7.25
32
Markus Haaland
Markus Haaland
Midfielder84'
6.55
14
Ulrik Mathisen
Ulrik Mathisen Attacker
6.68
29
Noah Holm
Noah Holm
Attacker61'
7.38
16
Kristian Eriksen
Kristian Eriksen Attacker
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Markus Haaland
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
87'
Event
Jacob Lungi Sørensen
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Markus Haaland → Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson
9th Substitution
Event
Lars Olden Larsen
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
78'
76'
Event
Niklas Jensen Wassberg → K. Ingason
8th Substitution
Event
David Edvardsson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
70'
Event
Troy Engseth Nyhammer → Ruben Yttergård Jenssen
7th Substitution
68'
61'
Event
Cheikh Mbacke → Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Noah Holm → Ulrik Mathisen
6th Substitution
50'
Event
Ulrik Mathisen
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Daniel Braut → Heine Åsen Larsen
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Sander Innvær → Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Vetle Skjærvik → Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Joachim Soltvedt → Denzel De Roeve
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Var
37'
Event
K. Ingason
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Heine Åsen Larsen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
27'
22'
Event
K. Ingason
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
19'
Event
K. Ingason
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Brann's 5-0 triumph stands as a testament to their attacking potency, dismantling Tromsø despite the hosts' possession advantage and favored status. The 3-0 halftime cushion set the tone, allowing Brann to control proceedings seamlessly. This minimal-deviation result underscores Brann's efficiency in a market-aligned performance, free from disruptive events. Tromsø's inability to capitalize on superior ball control exposed key weaknesses, propelling Brann up the standings with momentum intact.

Tromsø vs Brann preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Eliteserien, Norway View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ