Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium de Toulouse Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Toulouse TOU
2 Winner 1
Olympique Lyonnais LYO
Full Time Sun, 10 May 7:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Warren Kamanzi - 78'
Dayann Methalie - 10'
Goal
|
Goal
Corentin Tolisso - 71'
Aron Dønnum 79' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Toulouse 2–1 Olympique Lyonnais. The result saw Toulouse take the points. Toulouse showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 39%–61%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Toulouse's 2-1 win showed a 76.5% significant deviation favoring the home team.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable to assess outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: Home red card occurred, influencing match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion shaped second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Dechepy

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Haulbert

2nd Assistant

France

B. Parinet Le Tellier

1st Assistant

France

F. Batta

4th Official

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.25
Yellow cards / match 3.19
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.27
Toulouse C. Martínez Novell
C. Martínez Novell
VS
Olympique Lyonnais P. Rodrigues Fonseca
P. Rodrigues Fonseca
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Strasbourg Rank: 79 W
Monaco Rank: 79 D
Lens Rank: 81 L
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 L
Lorient Rank: 75 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rennes Rank: 80 W
Auxerre Rank: 69 W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 94 W
Lorient Rank: 75 W
Angers SCO Rank: 67 D
Monaco Rank: 80 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 9 - 21
21

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Toulouse
23.47%
Draw
24.01%
Away Olympique Lyonnais
52.52%

Movement

Changes since opening
Toulouse
-66.6%
Draw
+14.46%
Olympique Lyonnais
+52.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.53
83.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Toulouse
Olympique Lyonnais
Power Score
73.53
83.27
League Position
10
3
Global Rank
138
45

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Toulouse — Opponent-weighted form score
Olympique Lyonnais — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Toulouse Olympique Lyonnais

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Toulouse

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Olympique Lyonnais

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Toulouse ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Olympique Lyonnais
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Toulouse Olympique Lyonnais
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Toulouse Olympique Lyonnais
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Toulouse
Olympique Lyonnais
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Toulouse
vs
Olympique Lyonnais
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Toulouse Olympique Lyonnais
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Toulouse 0.00
Olympique Lyonnais 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Toulouse Olympique Lyonnais
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Toulouse 0.00
Olympique Lyonnais 0.00
Toulouse
Olympique Lyonnais
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LYO had peak pressure around 51'.
  • LYO started the game with stronger pressure.
TOU Pressure LYO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LYO reached the top pressure at 51' (96.46).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Toulouse TOU Home
37 matches
Olympique Lyonnais LYO Away
Match Record
7
Wins
21
9
Draws
9
21
Losses
7
Goals
38
Goals Scored
65
65
Goals Conceded
38
-27
Goal Difference
+27

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T18:30:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
G. Restes
France
1 G. Restes
M. McKenzie
United States
3 M. McKenzie
C. Cresswell
England
4 C. Cresswell
R. Nicolaisen
Denmark
2 R. Nicolaisen
A. Dønnum
Norway
15 A. Dønnum
A. Vossah
Substitution
France
45 A. Vossah
C. Cásseres Yepes
Venezuela
23 C. Cásseres Yepes
D. Methalie
Substitution
24 D. Methalie
S. Hidalgo Massa
Substitution
Argentina
11 S. Hidalgo Massa
Y. Gboho
Substitution
France
10 Y. Gboho
J. Russell-Rowe
Substitution
Canada
13 J. Russell-Rowe
Pitch
D. Greif
Slovakia
1 D. Greif
A. Da Silva Santos
Brazil
16 A. Da Silva Santos
M. Niakhaté
Senegal
19 M. Niakhaté
C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
Angola
22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
A. Maitland-Niles
Substitution
England
98 A. Maitland-Niles
C. Tolisso
France
8 C. Tolisso
T. Morton
Substitution
England
23 T. Morton
A. Bastardo Moreira
Portugal
17 A. Bastardo Moreira
K. Merah
Substitution
44 K. Merah
E. Moreira de Sousa
Brazil
9 E. Moreira de Sousa
R. Yaremchuk
Substitution
Ukraine
77 R. Yaremchuk

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadium de Toulouse
Capacity :
33150
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bastien Dechepy
Julien Haulbert
Brice Parinet Le Tellier
Florent Batta

Statistics

Possession
TOU
42%
LYO
58%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
10 Shots 13
36 Dangerous attacks 66
39 Possession 61
7 Corners 8
9 Free kicks 20
6 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

17 Dribble Attempts 12
8 Successful Dribbles 6
8 Throwins 13
12 Successful Headers 23
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
9 Goal Kicks 7
2 Assists 1
63 Ball Safe 59
7 Goal Attempts 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

81 Attacks 112
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

56 Long Passes 51
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
82 Successful Passes Percentage 87
11 Key Passes 10
26 Successful Long Passes 28
304 Passes 480
250 Successful Passes 418

Defensive

16 Tackles 18
2 Saves 4
6 Interceptions 5
44 Duels Won 62

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 10
14 Total Crosses 29

Discipline

20 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Bastien Dechepy

Starting XI ▼

1
Guillaume Restes
Guillaume Restes Goalkeeper
6.77
2
Rasmus Nicolaisen
Rasmus Nicolaisen Defender
6.71
3
Mark McKenzie
Mark McKenzie Defender
6.71
4
Charlie Cresswell
Charlie Cresswell Defender
7.05
15
Aron Dønnum
Aron Dønnum Midfielder
7.3
23
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Cristian Cásseres Jr. Midfielder
7.1
24
Dayann Methalie
Dayann Methalie Midfielder
6.48
12
Warren Kamanzi
Warren Kamanzi
Defender60'
6.54
45
Alexis Vossah
Alexis Vossah Midfielder
6.45
18
Pape Demba Diop
Pape Demba Diop
Midfielder61'
7.13
10
Yann Gboho
Yann Gboho Attacker
7.01
35
Seny Koumbassa
Seny Koumbassa
Defender90+1'
6.47
11
Santiago Hidalgo
Santiago Hidalgo Attacker
6.75
19
Djibril Sidibé
Djibril Sidibé
Defender82'
6.73
13
Jacen Russell-Rowe
Jacen Russell-Rowe Attacker
6.59
20
Emersonn
Emersonn
Attacker61'
6.78
Referee : Bastien Dechepy

Starting XI ▼

1
Dominik Greif
Dominik Greif Goalkeeper
7.01
16
Abner
Abner Defender
6.87
19
Moussa Niakhaté
Moussa Niakhaté Defender
7.03
22
Clinton Mata
Clinton Mata Defender
6.83
98
Ainsley Maitland-Niles
Ainsley Maitland-Niles Defender
6.8
11
Malick Fofana
Malick Fofana
Attacker89'
6.9
8
Corentin Tolisso
Corentin Tolisso Midfielder
7.28
9
Endrick
Endrick Midfielder
7.35
17
Afonso Moreira
Afonso Moreira Midfielder
7.03
23
Tyler Morton
Tyler Morton Midfielder
7.09
99
Noah Nartey
Noah Nartey
Midfielder83'
6.71
44
Khalis Merah
Khalis Merah Midfielder
6.66
10
Pavel Sulc
Pavel Sulc
Midfielder67'
6.97
77
Roman Yaremchuk
Roman Yaremchuk Attacker
6.93
37
Ernest Nuamah
Ernest Nuamah
Attacker83'
6.16

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Seny Koumbassa → Yann Gboho
9th Substitution
90+1'
89'
Event
Malick Fofana → Ainsley Maitland-Niles
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Noah Nartey → Tyler Morton
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Ernest Nuamah → Roman Yaremchuk
7th Substitution
Event
Djibril Sidibé → Santiago Hidalgo
5th Substitution
82'
Event
Aron Dønnum
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
79'
Event
Warren Kamanzi
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
78'
71'
Event
Corentin Tolisso
Header / 2nd Goal
70'
Event
Roman Yaremchuk
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
67'
Event
Pavel Sulc → Khalis Merah
4th Substitution
Event
Pape Demba Diop → Alexis Vossah
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Emersonn → Jacen Russell-Rowe
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Warren Kamanzi → Dayann Methalie
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Charlie Cresswell
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
57'
56'
Event
Endrick
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Mark McKenzie
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Alexis Vossah
Simulation / 3rd Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Dayann Methalie
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
44'
Event
Aron Dønnum
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
26'
Event
Dayann Methalie
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
10'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Afonso Moreira attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Update Update
Ernest Nuamah's header is blocked.
90
Update Update
Seny Koumbassa replaces Yann Gboho.
90
Update Update
Pape Diop's header goes wide.
90
Attempt Attempt
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Update Update
Afonso Moreira's header goes wide.
89
Update Update
Malick Fofana replaces Ainsley Maitland-Niles.
83
Update Update
Ernest Nuamah comes on for Roman Yaremchuk.
83
Update Update
Noah Nartey replaces Tyler Morton.
82
Substitution Substitution
Djibril Sidibe is substituted off for Santiago Hidalgo.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aron Donnum receives a second yellow card.
78
Attempt Attempt
Waren Hakon Christofer Kamanzi takes a right-footed shot and scores.
75
Attempt Attempt
Roman Yaremchuk takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
74
Attempt Attempt
Aron Donnum's left-footed shot is saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Yann Gboho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Update Update
Corentin Tolisso scores with a header.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Roman Yaremchuk receives a yellow card.
67
Update Update
Pavel Sulc is on, and Khalis Merah is off.
65
Attempt Attempt
Corentin Tolisso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Charlie Cresswell's header is saved.
63
Attempt Attempt
Waren Hakon Christofer Kamanzi takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
62
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Hidalgo takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
61
Update Update
Emersonn Correia da Silva comes on for Jacen Russell-Rowe.
61
Update Update
Waren Hakon Christofer Kamanzi is on, and Dayann Methalie is off.
60
Update Update
Pape Diop comes on for Alexis Vossah.
59
Attempt Attempt
Tyler Morton takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Charlie Cresswell receives a yellow card.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa receives a yellow card.
55
Attempt Attempt
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Yann Gboho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Charlie Cresswell attempts a header but misses the shot.
47
Attempt Attempt
Roman Yaremchuk takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Abner Vinicius Da Silva Santos takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mark McKenzie receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alexis Vossah receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Hidalgo takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa's right-footed shot is blocked.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dayann Methalie receives a yellow card.
40
Attempt Attempt
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aron Donnum receives a yellow card.
24
Attempt Attempt
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Yann Gboho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Khalis Merah takes a header but misses the shot.
10
Attempt Attempt
Dayann Methalie scores with a left-footed shot.
3
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Hidalgo's right-footed shot is saved.

CONCLUSION

Toulouse's gritty 2-1 triumph over Lyon underscores their defensive solidity and clinical finishing, even after playing with 10 men for much of the second half. Despite Lyon's superior possession and status as the stronger team, Toulouse capitalized on limited opportunities to secure the points. This upset reflects a significant deviation from expectations, with the red card adding distortion but not derailing the hosts' resolve. Lyon's inability to break down a depleted defense raises questions about their finishing prowess. Overall, Toulouse's victory boosts morale and standings, while Lyon must regroup after dropping points to a resilient opponent.

Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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