Toulouse vs LOSC Lille Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Ligue 1, France

Stadium de Toulouse Sun, 12 Apr - 3:15 PM

Ligue 1

Toulouse TOU

LOSC Lille LOSC

Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 3:15 PM

Round 29 Regular Season

Olivier Giroud - 88' (P)

Matías Fernández-Pardo - 55'

Romain Perraud - 50'

Thomas Meunier - 23'

Mark McKenzie 48'

CONTEXT

The match between Toulouse and LOSC Lille is finished, ending 0-4 at full time after the visitors led 0-1 at the interval. LOSC Lille produced a dominant display that showed only minimal deviation from pre-match expectations, with the away side identified as the stronger team beforehand. Their control proved decisive, as they held 63 percent possession to Toulouse’s 37 percent and converted that territorial advantage into a four-goal margin. Efficiency remained in line with expectations across the contest. No expected goals data was available to assess alignment on that metric, yet the outcome matched the pre-match projection overall. A red card to Toulouse created a clear distortion in the second half, altering the balance and enabling Lille to pull away comfortably without reply. The result reinforced Lille’s superiority on the day.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: LOSC Lille showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

H. Ben El Hadj

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

H. Ocak

2nd Assistant

A. Taleb

4th Official

G. Pasqualotti

1st Assistant

C. Martínez Novell

B. Génésio

1.29

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.86

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

9 - 11 - 17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Toulouse

1.18%

Draw

4.16%

LOSC Lille

94.66%

Team Power Ranking

19.64

34.1

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Toulouse

LOSC Lille

Power Score

19.64

34.1

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Toulouse — Opponent-weighted form score

LOSC Lille — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Toulouse LOSC Lille

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Toulouse

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

LOSC Lille

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Toulouse ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy LOSC Lille

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

26.89

26.75

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

26.75

26.89

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Toulouse +0.01 Efficiency Index

LOSC Lille -0.01 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Toulouse

LOSC Lille

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Toulouse ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy LOSC Lille

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Toulouse LOSC Lille

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Toulouse LOSC Lille

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Toulouse

LOSC Lille

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Toulouse

LOSC Lille

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Toulouse LOSC Lille

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Toulouse LOSC Lille

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Toulouse

LOSC Lille

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

LOSC had peak pressure around 90'.
LOSC started the game with stronger pressure.

TOU Pressure LOSC Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: LOSC reached the top pressure at 90' (79.19).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Toulouse TOU Home

37 matches

LOSC Lille LOSC Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-13

Goal Difference

+13

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:08:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 G. Restes

3 M. McKenzie

35 S. Koumbassa

2 R. Nicolaisen

19 D. Sidibé

23 C. Cásseres Yepes

18 P. Diop

24 D. Methalie

15 A. Dønnum

10 Y. Gboho

20 E. Correia da Silva

1 B. Özer

15 R. Perraud

23 A. Mandi

3 N. Ngoy

12 T. Meunier

21 B. André

6 N. Bentaleb

27 F. Sanches Correia

10 H. Haraldsson

17 N. Mukau

7 M. Fernandez Pardo

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 12, 2026, 03:15 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 29 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadium de Toulouse

Capacity :

33150

Pitch Surface :

N/A

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Huseyin Ocak

Ahmed Taleb

Gwenaël Pasqualotti

Hakim Ben El Hadj

Statistics

Possession

TOU

39%

LOSC

61%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 4

3 Big Chances Created 2

5 Shots 4

19 Dangerous attacks 37

37 Possession 63

4 Corners 2

12 Free kicks 12

2 Yellow Cards 0

1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

2 Successful Dribbles 2

78 Ball Safe 90

15 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33

1 Hit Woodwork 0

17 Throwins 8

13 Dribble Attempts 6

5 Goal Kicks 5

5 Substitutions 5

10 Successful Headers 7

0 Assists 2

4 Goal Attempts 12

0 Penalties 1

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1

83 Attacks 102

Possession

371 Passes 645

306 Successful Passes 582

36 Long Passes 42

14 Successful Long Passes 22

39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

82 Successful Passes Percentage 90

5 Key Passes 11

Defensive

13 Tackles 19

17 Interceptions 13

5 Saves 1

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 7

1 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

0 Offsides 3

13 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Hakim Ben El Hadj

Manager ▼

C. Martínez Novell Coach

Starting XI ▼

Guillaume Restes Goalkeeper

Rasmus Nicolaisen Defender

Mark McKenzie Defender

Seny Koumbassa Defender

Pape Demba Diop Midfielder

Alexis Vossah

Midfielder60'

Djibril Sidibé Midfielder

Charlie Cresswell

Defender59'

Cristian Cásseres Jr. Midfielder

Dayann Methalie Midfielder

Yann Gboho Attacker

Santiago Hidalgo

Attacker76'

Aron Dønnum Attacker

Warren Kamanzi

Defender60'

Emersonn Attacker

Jacen Russell-Rowe

Attacker71'

Substitutes ▼

Charlie Cresswell

Defender59'

Alexis Vossah

Midfielder60'

Warren Kamanzi

Defender60'

Jacen Russell-Rowe

Attacker71'

Santiago Hidalgo

Attacker76'

Bench ▼

Kjetil Haug Goalkeeper

S. Mchindra Goalkeeper

Mario Sauer Midfielder

Julián Vignolo Attacker

Referee : Hakim Ben El Hadj