Torino vs Sassuolo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino Fri, 8 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Torino TOR
2 Winner 1
Sassuolo SAS
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:45 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Marcus Pedersen - 70'
Giovanni Simeone - 66'
Goal
|
Goal
Kristian Thorstvedt - 51'

CONTEXT

Torino defeated Sassuolo 2-1 in a match that was level at 0-0 at halftime. Sassuolo enjoyed marginally more possession with 52% compared to Torino's 48%, yet the home team proved more clinical in attack during the second half. As the pre-designated stronger side, Torino capitalized on their opportunities to secure the victory without any red cards disrupting play. The result demonstrated minimal structural deviation of 4.4%, aligning closely with expectations. Efficiency metrics for both teams remained in line with projections, reflecting balanced performances overall. With no major tactical adjustments noted in the second half and xG data unavailable, the outcome underscores Torino's ability to grind out a win against a resilient Sassuolo outfit.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match result showed minimal 4.4% structural deviation favoring Torino.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: Torino's victory fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No significant events altered match dynamics or flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards resulted in no distortion to game structure.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Galipò

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Bindoni

1st Assistant

Italy

A. Tegoni

2nd Assistant

Italy

F. Maresca

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.71
Yellow cards / match 3.19
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.17
Torino R. D'Aversa
R. D'Aversa
VS
Sassuolo F. Grosso
F. Grosso
1.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.44
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Udinese Rank: 75 L
Inter Rank: 90 D
Cremonese Rank: 66 D
Hellas Verona Rank: 65 W
Pisa Rank: 63 W
AC Milan Rank: 84 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
AC Milan Rank: 85 W
Fiorentina Rank: 77 D
Como Rank: 83 W
Genoa Rank: 75 L
Cagliari Rank: 71 W
Juventus Rank: 86 D
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 10 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Torino
95.61%
Draw
4.2%
Away Sassuolo
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Torino
+3.27%
Draw
-3.19%
Sassuolo
-0.08%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.11
63.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Torino
Sassuolo
Power Score
75.11
63.1
League Position
12
10
Global Rank
114
99

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Torino — Opponent-weighted form score
Sassuolo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Torino Sassuolo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Torino

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sassuolo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Torino ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sassuolo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.08
29.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.42
42.08
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Torino +1.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Sassuolo -1.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Torino
Sassuolo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Torino ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sassuolo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Torino Sassuolo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Torino Sassuolo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Torino
Sassuolo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Torino
vs
Sassuolo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Torino Sassuolo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Torino 0.41
Sassuolo 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Torino Sassuolo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Torino 0.02
Sassuolo 0.05
Torino
Sassuolo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TOR had peak pressure around 42'.
  • SAS started the game with stronger pressure.
TOR Pressure SAS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TOR reached the top pressure at 42' (87.24).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Torino TOR Home
29 matches
Sassuolo SAS Away
Match Record
13
Wins
6
10
Draws
10
6
Losses
13
Goals
45
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
45
+13
Goal Difference
-13

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:02:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
A. Paleari
Italy
1 A. Paleari
L. Marianucci
Italy
35 L. Marianucci
S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
Equatorial Guinea
23 S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
E. Ebosse
Cameroon
77 E. Ebosse
V. Lazaro
Substitution
Austria
20 V. Lazaro
M. Prati
Substitution
Italy
4 M. Prati
G. Gineitis
Lithuania
66 G. Gineitis
Rafael Burguera
Substitution
Spain
33 Rafael Burguera
N. Vlašić
Croatia
10 N. Vlašić
A. Njie
Substitution
Sweden
92 A. Njie
G. Simeone
Substitution
Argentina
18 G. Simeone
Pitch
A. Murić
Kosovo
49 A. Murić
J. Doig
Substitution
Scotland
3 J. Doig
T. Muharemovic
Bosnia and Herzegovina
80 T. Muharemovic
S. Walukiewicz
Poland
6 S. Walukiewicz
W. Coulibaly
France
25 W. Coulibaly
K. Thorstvedt
Norway
42 K. Thorstvedt
N. Matić
Substitution
Serbia
18 N. Matić
L. Lipani
Substitution
Italy
35 L. Lipani
A. Lauriente
France
45 A. Lauriente
A. Pinamonti
Substitution
Italy
99 A. Pinamonti
C. Volpato
Substitution
Italy
7 C. Volpato

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino
Capacity :
27958
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Daniele Bindoni
Alberto Tegoni
Fabio Maresca
Simone Galipò

Statistics

Possession
TOR
50%
SAS
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 4
4 Shots 7
44 Dangerous attacks 46
48 Possession 52
7 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 13
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

2 Hit Woodwork 0
16 Throwins 15
4 Goal Kicks 10
11 Goal Attempts 9
80 Ball Safe 84
73 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57
14 Successful Headers 8
11 Dribble Attempts 7
8 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

95 Attacks 86
4 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

85 Successful Passes Percentage 87
28 Successful Long Passes 34
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 67
55 Long Passes 51
373 Successful Passes 418
439 Passes 480
14 Key Passes 10

Defensive

5 Saves 2
13 Tackles 10
4 Interceptions 10
42 Duels Won 33

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 14
7 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

13 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Simone Galipò

Starting XI ▼

1
Alberto Paleari
Alberto Paleari Goalkeeper
23
Saúl Coco
Saúl Coco Defender
35
Luca Marianucci
Luca Marianucci Defender
77
Enzo Ebosse
Enzo Ebosse Defender
4
Matteo Prati
Matteo Prati Midfielder
6
Emirhan İlkhan
Emirhan İlkhan
Midfielder67'
20
Valentino Lazaro
Valentino Lazaro Midfielder
16
Marcus Pedersen
Marcus Pedersen
Defender59'
33
Rafa Obrador
Rafa Obrador Midfielder
25
Niels Nkounkou
Niels Nkounkou
Defender86'
66
Gvidas Gineitis
Gvidas Gineitis Midfielder
10
Nikola Vlašić
Nikola Vlašić Attacker
18
Giovanni Simeone
Giovanni Simeone Attacker
17
Sandro Kulenovic
Sandro Kulenovic
Attacker86'
92
Alieu Njie
Alieu Njie Attacker
91
Duván Zapata
Duván Zapata
Attacker59'
Referee : Simone Galipò

Starting XI ▼

49
Arijanet Murić
Arijanet Murić Goalkeeper
3
Josh Doig
Josh Doig Defender
23
Ulisses Garcia
Ulisses Garcia
Defender75'
6
Sebastian Walukiewicz
Sebastian Walukiewicz Defender
25
Woyo Coulibaly
Woyo Coulibaly Defender
80
Tarik Muharemović
Tarik Muharemović Defender
18
Nemanja Matic
Nemanja Matic Midfielder
50
Darryl Bakola
Darryl Bakola
Midfielder84'
35
Luca Lipani
Luca Lipani Midfielder
90
Ismaël Koné
Ismaël Koné
Midfielder63'
42
Kristian Thorstvedt
Kristian Thorstvedt Midfielder
7
Cristian Volpato
Cristian Volpato Attacker
10
Domenico Berardi
Domenico Berardi
Attacker63'
45
Armand Laurienté
Armand Laurienté Attacker
99
Andrea Pinamonti
Andrea Pinamonti Attacker
8
M'Bala Nzola
M'Bala Nzola
Attacker76'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Gvidas Gineitis
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Niels Nkounkou
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Niels Nkounkou → Rafa Obrador
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Sandro Kulenovic → Giovanni Simeone
9th Substitution
86'
86'
Event
Kristian Thorstvedt
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Darryl Bakola → Nemanja Matic
8th Substitution
76'
Event
M'Bala Nzola → Andrea Pinamonti
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Ulisses Garcia → Josh Doig
6th Substitution
Event
Marcus Pedersen
Header / 3rd Goal
70'
Event
Emirhan İlkhan → Matteo Prati
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Giovanni Simeone
Header / 2nd Goal
66'
Event
Matteo Prati
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
63'
Event
Domenico Berardi → Cristian Volpato
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Ismaël Koné → Luca Lipani
4th Substitution
Event
Duván Zapata → Alieu Njie
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Marcus Pedersen → Valentino Lazaro
1st Substitution
59'
Event
Luca Marianucci
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
51'
Event
Kristian Thorstvedt
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Luca Lipani
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gvidas Gineitis receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Niels Nkounkou takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ulisses Garcia takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
89
Attempt Attempt
Darryl Bakola takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Niels Nkounkou receives a yellow card.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Kristian Thorstvedt.
86
Substitution Substitution
Niels Nkounkou is substituted for Rafael Obrador.
86
Update Update
Sandro Kulenovic replaces Giovanni Pablo Simeone.
84
Update Update
Darryl Bakola comes on for Nemanja Matic.
82
Attempt Attempt
Duvan Estevan Zapata Banguera takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
Emirhan Ilkhan attempts a header but misses the shot.
78
Attempt Attempt
Armand Lauriente takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
76
Update Update
MBala Nzola comes on for Andrea Pinamonti.
75
Update Update
Ulisses Garcia replaces Josh Doig.
70
Update Update
Marcus Holmgren Pedersen scores with a header.
69
Attempt Attempt
Giovanni Pablo Simeone takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
68
Update Update
Emirhan Ilkhan replaces Matteo Prati.
66
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Giovanni Pablo Simeone with a header results in a goal.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Giovanni Pablo Simeone scores, making it 1-1.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matteo Prati receives a yellow card.
64
Attempt Attempt
Duvan Estevan Zapata Banguera attempts a header but misses the shot.
63
Update Update
Ismael Kone comes on for Luca Lipani.
63
Update Update
Domenico Berardi is on, and Cristian Volpato is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
Giovanni Pablo Simeone takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
60
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Holmgren Pedersen takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
59
Update Update
Marcus Holmgren Pedersen is on, and Valentino Lazaro is off.
59
Update Update
Duvan Estevan Zapata Banguera is on, and Eybi Nije is off.
58
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Pinamonti takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Gvidas Gineitis takes a left-footed shot but misses.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luca Marianucci receives a yellow card.
51
Attempt Attempt
Nemanja Matic takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Thorstvedt takes a left-footed shot and scores.
46
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Prati's right-footed shot is blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Prati attempts a header but misses the shot.
39
Attempt Attempt
Giovanni Pablo Simeone takes a header but misses the shot.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luca Lipani receives a yellow card.
34
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Vlasic takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Luca Marianucci takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Luca Lipani's right-footed shot is blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Volpato takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Armand Lauriente takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Pinamonti takes a right-footed shot but misses.
14
Update Update
Tarik Muharemovic's header is blocked.
14
Attempt Attempt
Luca Lipani's right-footed shot is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Eybi Nije attempts a header but misses the shot.
11
Attempt Attempt
Eybi Nije takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
10
Attempt Attempt
Gvidas Gineitis takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Armand Lauriente's right-footed shot is saved.
2
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Pinamonti takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.

CONCLUSION

Torino's 2-1 triumph over Sassuolo highlights their second-half resilience after a goalless first period. Holding firm despite Sassuolo's possession edge, Torino converted chances efficiently to match their status as the stronger team. The minimal deviation and market alignment indicate a predictable outcome, unmarred by red cards or disruptions. Without xG insights, focus shifts to tangible metrics like possession and efficiency, both consistent with form. This result bolsters Torino's campaign, showcasing composure under pressure against a competitive Sassuolo side.

Torino vs Sassuolo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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