Tondela vs Moreirense Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio João Cardoso Mon, 11 May - 7:15 PM
Liga Portugal
Tondela CDT
2 Winner 0
Moreirense MFC
Full Time Mon, 11 May 7:15 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Rony Lopes - 60'
Makan Aïko - 18'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga 90+4'

CONTEXT

Tondela claimed a 2-0 win over Moreirense in a match defined by resilience and a key disciplinary event. The home side led 1-0 at halftime, having capitalized on limited possession of 40% against Moreirense's 60%. Despite being outpossessed throughout, Tondela added a second goal in the second half following Moreirense's red card, which altered the game's structure. This outcome represented a significant structural deviation for Tondela, the pre-match market favorite at 48.6% implied probability, while Moreirense entered as the stronger team per assessments. Efficiency stayed in line with expectations, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. The red card distortion notably impacted second-half proceedings, preventing a Moreirense comeback and underscoring Tondela's defensive solidity.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Tondela's 2-0 win marked a significant 51.4% structural deviation from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: Moreirense's red card decisively influenced match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion shaped second-half adjustments and outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Baixinho

Portugal
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Gomes Carreira

1st Assistant

Portugal

H. França Luís Coimbra

2nd Assistant

Portugal

S. dos Santos Guelho

4th Official

Portugal

League averages

Liga Portugal Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.01
Yellow cards / match 4.38
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.37
Tondela G. Feio
G. Feio
VS
Moreirense V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Casa Pia Rank: 62 W
Sporting CP Rank: 88 D
Nacional Rank: 64 L
Porto Rank: 86 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 D
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Benfica Rank: 87 L
Estoril Rank: 68 W
Famalicão Rank: 74 D
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Arouca Rank: 67 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tondela
48.61%
Draw
27.87%
Away Moreirense
23.52%

Movement

Changes since opening
Tondela
-49.28%
Draw
+25.95%
Moreirense
+23.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
54.63
67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tondela
Moreirense
Power Score
54.63
67
League Position
17
8
Global Rank
422
279

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tondela — Opponent-weighted form score
Moreirense — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tondela Moreirense

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Tondela

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Moreirense

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Tondela ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Moreirense
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.13
20.92
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.92
39.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Tondela — Efficiency Index
vs
Moreirense — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Tondela
Moreirense
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Tondela ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Moreirense
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Tondela Moreirense
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Tondela Moreirense
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Tondela
Moreirense
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Tondela
vs
Moreirense
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Tondela Moreirense
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Tondela 0.42
Moreirense 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Tondela Moreirense
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Tondela 0.00
Moreirense 0.06
Tondela
Moreirense
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MFC had peak pressure around 92'.
  • CDT started the game with stronger pressure.
CDT Pressure MFC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MFC reached the top pressure at 92' (62.84).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tondela CDT Home
15 matches
Moreirense MFC Away
Match Record
6
Wins
5
4
Draws
4
5
Losses
6
Goals
19
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
19
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:03:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Parise Fontes
Brazil
31 B. Parise Fontes
T. Silva Manso
Portugal
48 T. Silva Manso
J. Antunes da Silva
Portugal
44 J. Antunes da Silva
C. Marques
Portugal
4 C. Marques
R. Fernandes Conceição
Portugal
27 R. Fernandes Conceição
C. Alves Santana
Substitution
Brazil
97 C. Alves Santana
J. Rodríguez López
Ecuador
32 J. Rodríguez López
P. Pereira dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
7 P. Pereira dos Santos
H. Sequeira
Substitution
Portugal
79 H. Sequeira
M. Aiko
Substitution
France
90 M. Aiko
M. Mesquita Lopes
Substitution
Portugal
16 M. Mesquita Lopes
Pitch
C. Gobbo Secco
Brazil
22 C. Gobbo Secco
F. Teixeira Domingues
Substitution
Portugal
27 F. Teixeira Domingues
J. de Brito Gonzaga
Brazil
26 J. de Brito Gonzaga
K. Monteiro de Souza
Brazil
4 K. Monteiro de Souza
F. de Souza Silva
Substitution
Brazil
70 F. de Souza Silva
A. Cunha Almeida
25 A. Cunha Almeida
M. Stjepanovic
Substitution
Serbia
8 M. Stjepanovic
F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
Substitution
Portugal
10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
N. John
England
23 N. John
D. Martins Travassos
Portugal
2 D. Martins Travassos
A. de Souza Guimarães
Substitution
Brazil
11 A. de Souza Guimarães

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio João Cardoso
Capacity :
5000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ricardo Baixinho
Ricardo Jorge Gomes Carreira
Hugo Alexandre França Luís Coimbra
Sérgio José dos Santos Guelho

Statistics

Possession
CDT
42%
MFC
58%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 6
33 Dangerous attacks 51
40 Possession 60
1 Corners 8
9 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
2 Assists 0
15 Throwins 23
9 Goal Kicks 8
70 Ball Safe 97
5 Successful Headers 12
15 Dribble Attempts 8
5 Successful Dribbles 3
2 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5
8 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

84 Attacks 116
6 Counter Attacks 3
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
16 Successful Long Passes 28
288 Successful Passes 463
79 Successful Passes Percentage 86
9 Key Passes 8
365 Passes 538
55 Long Passes 54

Defensive

7 Interceptions 10
14 Tackles 20
2 Saves 1
33 Duels Won 49

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 25
2 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

14 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Ricardo Baixinho

Starting XI ▼

31
Bernardo
Bernardo Goalkeeper
4
Christian Marques
Christian Marques Defender
27
Rodrigo Conceição
Rodrigo Conceição Defender
44
João Silva
João Silva Defender
48
Tiago Manso
Tiago Manso Defender
7
Maranhão
Maranhão Midfielder
5
João Afonso
João Afonso
Defender90'
32
Juanse
Juanse Midfielder
79
Hugo Félix
Hugo Félix Midfielder
29
Jordan
Jordan
Attacker83'
90
Makan Aïko
Makan Aïko Midfielder
8
Hélder Tavares
Hélder Tavares
Midfielder72'
97
Cícero
Cícero Midfielder
23
B. Kimpioka
B. Kimpioka
Attacker72'
16
Rony Lopes
Rony Lopes Attacker
10
Joe Hodge
Joe Hodge
Midfielder72'
Referee : Ricardo Baixinho

Starting XI ▼

22
Caio Gobbo Secco
Caio Gobbo Secco Goalkeeper
4
Kevyn Monteiro
Kevyn Monteiro Defender
26
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga Defender
27
Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues
Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues Defender
78
Landerson
Landerson
Attacker72'
70
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva Defender
71
Leandro Santos
Leandro Santos
Defender83'
2
Travassos
Travassos Midfielder
8
Mateja Stjepanović
Mateja Stjepanović Midfielder
9
Luís Semedo
Luís Semedo
Attacker46'
10
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso Midfielder
7
Cedric Wilfried Teguia Noubi
Cedric Wilfried Teguia Noubi
Attacker46'
23
Nile John
Nile John Midfielder
25
Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida
Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida Midfielder
11
Alan de Souza Guimarães
Alan de Souza Guimarães Attacker
99
Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa
Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa
Attacker72'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jordan
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga
Argument / 1st Redcard
90+3'
Event
Cedric Wilfried Teguia Noubi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
João Afonso → Maranhão
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Jordan → Hugo Félix
9th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Leandro Santos → Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Joe Hodge → Rony Lopes
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Hélder Tavares → Makan Aïko
7th Substitution
72'
Event
B. Kimpioka → Cícero
4th Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa → Alan de Souza Guimarães
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Landerson → Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues
5th Substitution
Event
Rony Lopes
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
60'
46'
Event
Cedric Wilfried Teguia Noubi → Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Luís Semedo → Mateja Stjepanović
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
29'
Event
Alan de Souza Guimarães
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Makan Aïko
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
18'

Match Commentary

1
Update Update
Cícero from Tondela won a free kick in the defensive area.

CONCLUSION

Tondela's 2-0 triumph highlighted effective game management against a possession-dominant Moreirense, who suffered from a critical red card. Leading 1-0 at halftime with just 40% possession, Tondela exploited the numerical advantage post-red card to secure the points. This significant deviation underscored the home team's opportunism, aligning with market views despite Moreirense's stronger billing. Absent xG metrics, the focus remains on tangible events like the red card distortion, which prevented any visitor recovery. Tondela's result reinforces their structural edge in this encounter.

Tondela vs Moreirense preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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