Tondela vs AVS Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio João Cardoso Sat, 21 Mar - 8:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Tondela CDT
0 – 0
AVS AFS
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 8:30 PM
Round 27 Regular Season

CONTEXT

The match has finished, ending in a 0-0 full-time draw between Tondela and AVS. Going into the game, the pre-match market favored the home side, giving Tondela a 50.9% chance of victory compared to AVS's 21.1%, alongside a 28.1% probability for a draw. Because the match ended level, there was a significant deviation from market expectations involving AVS. Consequently, the final result was not aligned with the pre-match market forecast. On the pitch, the underlying metrics closely mirrored the scoreless tie, confirming that the outcome

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AVS showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Tondela C. Bacci
C. Bacci
VS
AVS J. Oliveira Nunes Henriques
J. Oliveira Nunes Henriques
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.45
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting CP Rank: 88 D
Rio Ave Rank: 61 L
Santa Clara Rank: 67 D
Estrela Amadora Rank: 61 W
Alverca Rank: 65 D
Estoril Rank: 70 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Santa Clara Rank: 65 L
Alverca Rank: 64 D
Estrela Amadora Rank: 61 D
Benfica Rank: 87 L
Estoril Rank: 70 W
Famalicão Rank: 73 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tondela
50.85%
Draw
28.06%
Away AVS
21.09%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.7
55.9
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tondela
AVS
Power Score
53.7
55.9
League Position
17
18
Global Rank
455
606

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tondela — Opponent-weighted form score
AVS — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tondela AVS

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Tondela

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AVS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Tondela ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AVS
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.25
28.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.88
27.25
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Tondela -0.16 Efficiency Index
vs
AVS +0.16 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Tondela
AVS
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Tondela
vs
AVS
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Tondela AVS
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Tondela AVS
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Tondela
AVS
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tondela CDT Home
1 matches
AVS AFS Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
2
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
B. Parise Fontes
Brazil
31 B. Parise Fontes
R. Machado
Substitution
Brazil
2 R. Machado
J. Antunes da Silva
Substitution
Portugal
44 J. Antunes da Silva
C. Marques
Portugal
4 C. Marques
B. Medina
Colombia
20 B. Medina
R. Fernandes Conceição
Substitution
Portugal
27 R. Fernandes Conceição
P. Pereira dos Santos
Brazil
7 P. Pereira dos Santos
J. Hodge
Republic of Ireland
10 J. Hodge
H. Lopes Vieira Tavares
Substitution
Cape Verde
8 (C) H. Lopes Vieira Tavares
M. Aiko
Substitution
France
90 M. Aiko
B. Mbunga-Kimpioka
Sweden
23 B. Mbunga-Kimpioka
Pitch
A. Vasconcelos Ramos
Brazil
1 A. Vasconcelos Ramos
L. Rivas
Substitution
Paraguay
12 L. Rivas
C. dos Santos Rodrigues
Cape Verde
26 (C) C. dos Santos Rodrigues
A. de Jesus Santos
Brazil
33 A. de Jesus Santos
M. Cardoso Francisco
Brazil
97 M. Cardoso Francisco
P. Lima Barros
Brazil
8 P. Lima Barros
R. Medeiros de Moura
Substitution
Brazil
70 R. Medeiros de Moura
G. Mendonça
Portugal
23 G. Mendonça
?. Perea Abonce
Substitution
Colombia
14 ?. Perea Abonce
A. Fernandes Mendes
Substitution
Portugal
7 A. Fernandes Mendes
A. Green
Substitution
England
25 A. Green

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 21, 2026, 08:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio João Cardoso
Capacity :
30127
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Miguel Bertolo Nogueira
Sérgio José dos Santos Guelho
Paulo Ricardo Duarte Brás
Nuno Filipe Figueiredo Pires

Statistics

Possession
CDT
57%
AFS
43%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 2
14 Shots 9
47 Dangerous attacks 51
60 Possession 40
7 Corners 6
15 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

13 Throwins 21
19 Successful Headers 23
7 Goal Kicks 10
13 Dribble Attempts 11
4 Successful Dribbles 3
31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
5 Substitutions 5
2 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Injuries 2
9 Goal Attempts 8
90 Ball Safe 69

Attacking

108 Attacks 89
3 Counter Attacks 1
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
84 Successful Passes Percentage 74
433 Passes 294
362 Successful Passes 219
63 Long Passes 51
34 Successful Long Passes 22
11 Key Passes 8

Defensive

17 Tackles 17
7 Interceptions 4
2 Saves 3

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 21
7 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

12 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Miguel Bertolo Nogueira

Starting XI ▼

31
Bernardo
Bernardo Goalkeeper
7.61
2
Bebeto
Bebeto Defender
7.06
26
Arjen van der Heide
Arjen van der Heide
Attacker88'
4
Christian Marques
Christian Marques Defender
6.7
20
Brayan Medina
Brayan Medina Defender
7.42
27
Rodrigo Conceição
Rodrigo Conceição Defender
7.45
60
Nor Maviram
Nor Maviram
Defender88'
6.82
44
João Silva
João Silva Defender
6.97
29
Jordan
Jordan
Attacker68'
6.7
7
Maranhão
Maranhão Midfielder
7
8
Hélder Tavares
Hélder Tavares (C) Midfielder
6.93
15
Yaya Sithole
Yaya Sithole
Midfielder74'
6.76
10
Joe Hodge
Joe Hodge Midfielder
7
90
Makan Aïko
Makan Aïko Midfielder
7.4
70
Moudjatovic
Moudjatovic
Attacker89'
6.61
23
B. Kimpioka
B. Kimpioka Attacker
6.89
Referee : Miguel Bertolo Nogueira

Starting XI ▼

1
Adriel
Adriel Goalkeeper
7.1
12
Leonardo Rivas
Leonardo Rivas Defender
6.69
24
Christian Neiva Afonso
Christian Neiva Afonso
Defender85'
6.4
26
Carlos Ponck
Carlos Ponck (C) Defender
6.74
33
Aderllan Leandro de Jesus Santos
Aderllan Leandro de Jesus Santos Defender
7.63
97
Mateus Pivô
Mateus Pivô Defender
6.93
8
Pedro Lima Barros
Pedro Lima Barros Midfielder
7.34
23
Gustavo Pinto Mendonça
Gustavo Pinto Mendonça Midfielder
6.64
70
Roni
Roni Midfielder
6.52
19
Tiago Galletto López
Tiago Galletto López
Midfielder29'
6.48
7
Tomané
Tomané Attacker
6.81
18
Ânderson Miguel da Silva
Ânderson Miguel da Silva
Attacker85'
6.74
14
Óscar Perea
Óscar Perea Attacker
6.57
11
Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola
Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola
Attacker65'
6.8
25
Andre Green
Andre Green Attacker
6.63
20
Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete
Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete
Attacker65'
6.82

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Moudjatovic → Makan Aïko
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Arjen van der Heide → Bebeto
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Nor Maviram → Rodrigo Conceição
9th Substitution
88'
85'
Event
Christian Neiva Afonso → Leonardo Rivas
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Ânderson Miguel da Silva → Tomané
7th Substitution
Event
Yaya Sithole → Hélder Tavares
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Jordan → João Silva
4th Substitution
68'
65'
Event
Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete → Andre Green
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola → Óscar Perea
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
J. Henriques
1st Yellow/red Card
31'
Event
Tiago Galletto López
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
29'
Event
Tiago Galletto López → Roni
1st Substitution
22'
Event
Carlos Ponck
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
A shot on goal has been stopped. Tunde Akinsola from AVS took a left-footed attempt from the right side of the six-yard area, but Bernardo Fontes from Tondela made a save, diving to the bottom right corner. The opportunity was set up by a cross from Pedro Lima.
90
Update Update
Benjamin Kimpioka commits a foul for Tondela.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Arjen van der Heide from Tondela earns a free kick on the right side of the field.
90
Update Update
Emmanuel Maviram from Tondela earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
90
Update Update
Nenê commits a foul for AVS.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Jordan Siebatcheu from Tondela took a left-footed shot from the left side of the six-yard box but couldn't find the target.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at Tondela 0, AVS 0.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AVS after a deflection off Bernardo Fontes.
90
Update Update
Pedro Lima from AVS earns a free kick in his own half.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Nenê from AVS heads the ball from just a few yards out, but Bernardo Fontes from Tondela makes a crucial save right in the middle of the goal. The chance was set up by a cross from Tunde Akinsola.
90
Update Update
Kiki from AVS commits a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Tondela after Aderllan Santos allowed the ball to go out.
90
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Benjamin Kimpioka from Tondela tries a left-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Pedro Maranhão.
89
Attempt Attempt
The shot is deflected. Diego Duarte from AVS tries a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. He was set up by Tunde Akinsola.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tondela: Moudjatovic Ouattara comes on to take the place of Makan Aiko.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tondela: Emmanuel Maviram comes on to take the place of Rodrigo Conceição.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tondela: Arjen van der Heide comes on to take the place of Bebeto.
87
Update Update
Nenê from AVS is awarded a free kick in their own half of the field.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Sphephelo Sithole of Tondela.
86
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Tunde Akinsola from AVS took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the right. The chance was set up by Pedro Lima during a quick counterattack.
85
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Tunde Akinsola from AVS took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it didn't find the target.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AVS: Nenê comes on to replace Tomané.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AVS: Kiki comes on to take the place of Daniel Rivas.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tondela, following a play that resulted in a foul by Pedro Lima.
82
Update Update
Daniel Rivas from AVS commits a foul.
82
Update Update
Pedro Maranhão from Tondela earns a free kick on the right side of the field.
79
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Tondela after Aderllan Santos allowed the ball to go out of play.
79
Attempt Attempt
The shot is deflected. Jordan Siebatcheu from Tondela takes a right-footed attempt from a challenging position on the right, but it's blocked.
78
Update Update
Rodrigo Conceição from Tondela earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
78
Update Update
Tunde Akinsola commits a foul for AVS.
78
Update Update
The pause has ended. The teams are set to resume play.
78
Update Update
The game has been paused due to an injury to Adriel from AVS.
76
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Makan Aiko from Tondela takes a right-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but the goalkeeper makes the save.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tondela after a play that resulted in Carlos Ponck giving it away.
75
Update Update
Makan Aiko from Tondela strikes the right post with a right-footed effort from the left side of the penalty area, with an assist from Jordan Siebatcheu.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AVS after a deflection off Jordan Siebatcheu.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tondela: Sphephelo Sithole comes on to replace Hélder Tavares, who is leaving the field due to an injury.
73
Update Update
Bebeto commits a foul for Tondela.
73
Update Update
Tomané from AVS earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
72
Update Update
Offside call against AVS. Aderllan Santos has been flagged for being in an offside position.
71
Update Update
Pedro Lima from AVS earns a free kick in the offensive half of the field.
71
Update Update
Hélder Tavares from Tondela committed a foul.
70
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
69
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Hélder Tavares from Tondela.
69
Update Update
Pedro Maranhão from Tondela connects with a header from the center of the penalty area, but it strikes the right post. The opportunity was set up by Makan Aiko, who delivered a cross after a quick counterattack.
68
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Gustavo Mendonça from AVS takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes over the goal and to the right. The assist came from Pedro Lima.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tondela: Jordan Siebatcheu comes on in place of João Silva.
66
Update Update
Matheus Pivô from AVS commits a foul.
66
Update Update
Makan Aiko from Tondela is awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
65
Update Update
Offside call against Tondela. Makan Aiko has been flagged for being in an offside position.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AVS: Diego Duarte comes on to take the place of Andre Green.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AVS: Tunde Akinsola comes on to take the place of Óscar Perea.
62
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Benjamin Kimpioka from Tondela attempted a header from the middle of the box, but it went wide.
61
Update Update
Daniel Rivas from AVS commits a foul.
61
Update Update
Benjamin Kimpioka from Tondela earns a free kick on the right side of the field.
59
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
58
Update Update
Óscar Perea from AVS commits a foul.
58
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Bernardo Fontes from Tondela.
58
Update Update
Bernardo Fontes from Tondela earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
56
Update Update
Hélder Tavares from Tondela commits a foul.
56
Update Update
Pedro Lima from AVS earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
55
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Pedro Lima from AVS took a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
54
Update Update
Offside call against Tondela. Pedro Maranhão has been flagged for being in an offside position.
53
Update Update
Pedro Lima from AVS committed a handball foul.
50
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Tondela, following a defensive play by Adriel.
50
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Tondela, following a play where Adriel was responsible for the concession.
47
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AVS after João Silva allowed the ball to go out.
47
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Aderllan Santos from AVS directed a header from the center of the box after a set piece, but it went wide.
46
Update Update
Matheus Pivô from AVS is awarded a free kick on the right flank.
46
Update Update
Hélder Tavares from Tondela commits a foul.
46
Update Update
Pedro Lima from AVS earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
46
Update Update
Joe Hodge from Tondela commits a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Tondela 0, AVS 0.
45
Update Update
The first half concludes with the score tied at 0-0 between Tondela and AVS.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Pedro Maranhão from Tondela heads the ball from the center of the box, but it goes over the bar. The cross was delivered by Rodrigo Conceição.
44
Update Update
Pedro Maranhão from Tondela is awarded a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
44
Update Update
Óscar Perea commits a foul for AVS.
43
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Óscar Perea from AVS took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it didn't hit the target.
42
Update Update
Tomané from AVS earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
42
Update Update
Christian Marques from Tondela commits a foul.
40
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Tondela after Daniel Rivas allowed the ball to go out.
38
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Benjamin Kimpioka from Tondela took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal. Bebeto provided the assist.
37
Attempt Attempt
A shot from outside the penalty area by Rodrigo Conceição of Tondela is stopped by the goalkeeper.
32
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Hélder Tavares from Tondela.
32
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tiago Galletto from AVS receives a yellow card for committing a foul.
31
Update Update
Tiago Galletto from AVS commits a foul.
31
Update Update
Hélder Tavares from Tondela earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
30
Update Update
João Silva from Tondela commits a foul.
30
Update Update
Pedro Lima from AVS is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
29
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
29
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AVS: Tiago Galletto comes on to replace Roni, who has been injured.
28
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Roni from AVS.
26
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt by Carlos Ponck from AVS is blocked. He fired a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but Bernardo Fontes from Tondela makes a save right in the middle of the goal.
25
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AVS after Bebeto allowed the ball to go out of play.
24
Update Update
Pedro Lima from AVS earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
24
Update Update
Hélder Tavares from Tondela commits a foul.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tondela after Carlos Ponck allowed the ball to go out.
22
Update Update
Carlos Ponck commits a foul for AVS.
22
Update Update
Pedro Maranhão from Tondela is awarded a free kick in the offensive half of the field.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Carlos Ponck from AVS receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
21
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
20
Update Update
The game has been paused due to an injury to Pedro Lima from AVS.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AVS after a deflection off Hélder Tavares.
15
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Pedro Maranhão from Tondela.
15
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
14
Update Update
Óscar Perea from AVS commits a handball foul.
11
Update Update
Benjamin Kimpioka from Tondela commits a handball foul.
7
Update Update
Rodrigo Conceição from Tondela is awarded a free kick in the opponent's half.
7
Update Update
Rodrigo Conceição from Tondela earns a free kick on the left side of the field.
7
Update Update
Gustavo Mendonça commits a foul for AVS.
7
Update Update
Roni from AVS commits a foul.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AVS after Bebeto allowed the ball to go out.
4
Update Update
Carlos Ponck commits a foul for AVS.
4
Update Update
Benjamin Kimpioka from Tondela earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
2
Update Update
Roni from AVS earns a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
2
Update Update
Bebeto commits a foul for Tondela.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: AVS exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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