Thun vs Young Boys Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stockhorn Arena Thu, 14 May - 2:30 PM
Super League
Thun THU
3 Winner 8
Young Boys YBO
Full Time Thu, 14 May 2:30 PM
Round 37 Championship Round
Leonardo Bertone - 79'
Elmin Rastoder - 13', 11'
Goal
|
Goal
Chris Bedia - 77' (P)
Alan Virginius - 64'
Samuel Essende - 54' (P), 26' (P), 1'
Alvyn Sanches - 43'
Marco Bürki 45+3' Red Card
Jan Bamert 76' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Thun 3–8 Young Boys. The result saw Young Boys take the points. Young Boys showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 43%–57%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result exhibited a significant 67.3% structural deviation favoring Young Boys.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome misaligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable from data.
  • Event impact: Two red cards to Thun created major second-half event impact.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion identified as key second-half adjustment.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Kanagasingam

Switzerland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Küng

1st Assistant

Switzerland

B. Lengacher

2nd Assistant

Switzerland

J. Mandach

4th Official

Switzerland

League averages

Super League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.57
Yellow cards / match 4.22
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.46
Thun M. Lustrinelli
M. Lustrinelli
VS
Young Boys G. Seoane
G. Seoane
1.87
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.26
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sion Rank: 64 L
Basel Rank: 62 L
Lugano Rank: 64 L
Basel Rank: 61 W
Lugano Rank: 65 L
Zürich Rank: 51 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Basel Rank: 64 W
Lugano Rank: 65 L
St. Gallen Rank: 64 L
Servette Rank: 63 D
Basel Rank: 61 D
Lugano Rank: 65 D
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 18 - 27
27

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Thun
43%
Draw
24.3%
Away Young Boys
32.7%

Movement

Changes since opening
Thun
+42.35%
Draw
+22.39%
Young Boys
-64.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.9
64.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Thun
Young Boys
Power Score
53.9
64.5
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
430
344

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Thun — Opponent-weighted form score
Young Boys — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Thun Young Boys

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Thun

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Young Boys

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Thun ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Young Boys
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.88
48.77
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
48.77
39.88
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Thun -0.80 Efficiency Index
vs
Young Boys +0.80 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Thun
Young Boys
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Thun ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Young Boys
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Thun Young Boys
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 3.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Thun Young Boys
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
3.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Thun
Young Boys
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Thun
vs
Young Boys
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Thun Young Boys
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Thun 0.35
Young Boys 0.45
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Thun Young Boys
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Thun 0.14
Young Boys 0.07
Thun
Young Boys
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • YBO had peak pressure around 60'.
  • THU started the game with stronger pressure.
THU Pressure YBO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: YBO reached the top pressure at 60' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 55 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Thun THU Home
55 matches
Young Boys YBO Away
Match Record
10
Wins
27
18
Draws
18
27
Losses
10
Goals
61
Goals Scored
106
106
Goals Conceded
61
-45
Goal Difference
+45

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T00:01:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Steffen
Switzerland
24 N. Steffen
F. Fehr
Switzerland
47 F. Fehr
J. Bamert
Switzerland
19 J. Bamert
M. Bürki
Switzerland
23 M. Bürki
M. Heule
Switzerland
27 M. Heule
L. Bertone
Substitution
Switzerland
6 L. Bertone
M. Käit
Substitution
Estonia
14 M. Käit
J. Roth
Switzerland
16 J. Roth
K. Imeri
Substitution
Switzerland
7 K. Imeri
C. Ibayi
Substitution
France
18 C. Ibayi
E. Rastoder
Substitution
Switzerland
74 E. Rastoder
Pitch
M. Keller
Switzerland
1 M. Keller
S. Bukinac
Serbia
33 S. Bukinac
L. Benito
Switzerland
23 L. Benito
S. Lauper
Switzerland
30 S. Lauper
Y. Valery
Substitution
Tunisia
22 Y. Valery
E. Fernandes
Substitution
Switzerland
6 E. Fernandes
D. Pech
Czech Republic
13 D. Pech
E. Colley
Substitution
Gambia
11 E. Colley
A. Antonio Sanches
Substitution
Switzerland
10 A. Antonio Sanches
D. Males
Substitution
Switzerland
39 D. Males
S. Essende
France
99 S. Essende

General Information

Date & Time :
May 14, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 37 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Stockhorn Arena
Capacity :
10398
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Anojen Kanagasingam
Susann Küng
Bastien Lengacher
Johannes von Mandach

Statistics

Possession
THU
44%
YBO
56%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 8
5 Big Chances Created 9
15 Shots 25
43 Dangerous attacks 56
43 Possession 57
3 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
2 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

2 Assists 5
10 Goal Kicks 10
16 Throwins 11
2 Successful Dribbles 9
22 Successful Dribbles Percentage 39
9 Dribble Attempts 23
65 Ball Safe 91
11 Goal Attempts 16
0 Penalties 3
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 2
74 Attacks 79

Possession

11 Key Passes 18
78 Successful Passes Percentage 85
253 Successful Passes 362
324 Passes 425
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57
30 Successful Long Passes 26
55 Long Passes 46

Defensive

26 Tackles 15
11 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 3

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 4
14 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

17 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Anojen Kanagasingam

Starting XI ▼

24
Niklas Steffen
Niklas Steffen Goalkeeper
19
Jan Bamert
Jan Bamert Defender
23
Marco Bürki
Marco Bürki Defender
27
Michael Heule
Michael Heule Defender
47
Fabio Fehr
Fabio Fehr Defender
6
Leonardo Bertone
Leonardo Bertone Midfielder
5
Dominik Franke
Dominik Franke
Defender79'
7
Kastriot Imeri
Kastriot Imeri Midfielder
96
Brighton Labeau
Brighton Labeau
Attacker57'
14
Mattias Käit
Mattias Käit Midfielder
78
Valmir Matoshi
Valmir Matoshi
Midfielder57'
16
Justin Roth
Justin Roth Midfielder
18
Christopher Ibayi
Christopher Ibayi Attacker
70
Nils Reichmuth
Nils Reichmuth
Midfielder57'
74
Elmin Rastoder
Elmin Rastoder Attacker
2
20
Noah Rupp
Noah Rupp
Midfielder70'
Referee : Anojen Kanagasingam

Starting XI ▼

1
Marvin Keller
Marvin Keller Goalkeeper
22
Yan Valery
Yan Valery Defender
3
Jaouen Hadjam
Jaouen Hadjam
Defender75'
23
Loris Benito
Loris Benito Defender
30
Sandro Lauper
Sandro Lauper Defender
33
Stefan Bukinac
Stefan Bukinac Defender
6
Edimilson Fernandes
Edimilson Fernandes Midfielder
37
Armin Gigovic
Armin Gigovic
Midfielder62'
10
Alvyn Sanches
Alvyn Sanches Midfielder
29
Chris Bedia
Chris Bedia
Attacker76'
11
Ebrima Colley
Ebrima Colley Midfielder
16
Christian Fassnacht
Christian Fassnacht
Midfielder63'
2
13
Dominik Pech
Dominik Pech Midfielder
39
Darian Males
Darian Males Midfielder
7
Alan Virginius
Alan Virginius
Attacker63'
99
Samuel Essende
Samuel Essende Attacker
3

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Niklas Steffen
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
89'
86'
Event
Samuel Essende
Simulation / 5th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Christian Fassnacht
Left foot shot / 8th Goal
Event
Leonardo Bertone
Right foot shot / 7th Goal
79'
Event
Dominik Franke → Leonardo Bertone
10th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
Sandro Lauper
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Chris Bedia
Left foot shot / 3rd Penalty
Event
Jan Bamert
Professional foul last man / 2nd Redcard
76'
76'
Event
Chris Bedia → Alvyn Sanches
9th Substitution
75'
Event
Jaouen Hadjam → Yan Valery
8th Substitution
Event
Noah Rupp → Elmin Rastoder
7th Substitution
70'
68'
Event
Christian Fassnacht
Left foot shot / 6th Goal
64'
Event
Alan Virginius
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
63'
Event
Christian Fassnacht → Ebrima Colley
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Alan Virginius → Darian Males
6th Substitution
62'
Event
Armin Gigovic → Edimilson Fernandes
4th Substitution
Event
Leonardo Bertone
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
61'
Event
Brighton Labeau → Kastriot Imeri
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Nils Reichmuth → Christopher Ibayi
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Valmir Matoshi → Mattias Käit
2nd Substitution
57'
54'
Event
Samuel Essende
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
1ST-HALF
Event
Marco Bürki
Card adjusted
45+3'
Event
Marco Bürki
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
45+3'
43'
Event
Alvyn Sanches
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
29'
Event
Ebrima Colley
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
Event
Samuel Essende
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Christopher Ibayi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
17'
Event
Elmin Rastoder
Header / 3rd Goal
13'
Event
Elmin Rastoder
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
11'
1'
Event
Samuel Essende
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Bukinac takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Chris Vianney Bedia takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Samuel Essende receives a yellow card.
84
Attempt Attempt
Armin Gigovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Sandro Lauper's right-footed shot is blocked.
84
Attempt Attempt
Armin Gigovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
81
Attempt Attempt
Armin Gigovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Christian Fassnacht scores with a left-footed shot.
80
Update Update
Dominik Franke comes on for Leonardo Bertone.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sandro Lauper receives a yellow card.
79
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Leonardo Bertone with his right foot results in a goal.
77
Red Card Red Card Important
Jan Bamert receives a red card.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Chris Vianney Bedia scores, bringing the penalty tally to 2 for his team and 7 for the opponent.
77
Attempt Attempt
Chris Vianney Bedia scores with a left-footed shot.
75
Update Update
Chris Vianney Bedia replaces Alvyn Sanches.
75
Update Update
Jaouen Hadjam is on, and Yan Valery is off.
74
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Bukinac's left-footed shot is blocked.
70
Update Update
Noah Rupp comes on for Elmin Rastoder.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Christian Fassnacht scores, making it 2-6.
68
Attempt Attempt
Christian Fassnacht scores with a left-footed shot.
67
Attempt Attempt
Alvyn Sanches takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
65
Attempt Attempt
Elmin Rastoder takes a left-footed shot but misses.
64
Attempt Attempt
Alan Virginius takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
63
Update Update
Christian Fassnacht replaces Ebrima Colley.
62
Update Update
Armin Gigovic replaces Edimilson Fernandes.
62
Update Update
Alan Virginius replaces Darian Males.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Leonardo Bertone receives a yellow card.
60
Attempt Attempt
Brighton's Labeau takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Pech's right-footed shot is blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Ebrima Colley takes a right-footed shot but misses.
57
Update Update
Labeau comes on for Imeri at Brighton.
57
Update Update
Valmir Matoshi replaces Mattias Kait.
57
Update Update
Nils Reichmuth is on, and Christopher Ibayi is off.
56
Attempt Attempt
Ebrima Colley takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Samuel Essende scores, bringing the score to 4 penalties for the opposing team.
54
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Essende takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
53
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Bukinac takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Essende takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ebrima Colley's right-footed shot is blocked.
45
Red Card Red Card Important
Marco Burki receives a red card.
43
Attempt Attempt
Alvyn Sanches scores with a left-footed shot.
41
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Essende takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Ebrima Colley's right-footed shot is blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Kastriot Imeri takes a right-footed shot but misses.
29
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ebrima Colley receives a yellow card.
29
Update Update
Christopher Ibayi's header is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Ibayi attempts a header but misses the shot.
26
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Essende takes a right-footed shot and scores.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Samuel Essende scores, making it 2-2.
21
Attempt Attempt
Michael Heule takes a left-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Bertone's right-footed shot is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Justin Roth takes a left-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Edimilson Fernandes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
17
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Christopher Ibayi receives a yellow card.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Elmin Rastoder scores, making it 2-1.
13
Attempt Attempt
Elmin Rastoder takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
11
Attempt Attempt
Elmin Rastoder takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
7
Attempt Attempt
Kastriot Imeri takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
6
Attempt Attempt
Kastriot Imeri takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
5
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Leonardo Bertone with his right foot is blocked.
4
Attempt Attempt
Michael Heule's left-footed shot is saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Essende scores with a right-footed shot.

CONCLUSION

Young Boys capitalized masterfully on Thun's disciplinary collapse, converting a 2-3 halftime deficit into an 8-3 demolition. Two red cards distorted proceedings, amplifying the stronger visitors' edge despite modest possession advantage. This 67.3% structural deviation from pre-match expectations, where Thun held 43% favor over 32.7%, highlights event-driven volatility. Absent xG insights, surface stats reveal efficiency in line yet market misalignment. Thun's woes serve as cautionary tale on discipline; Young Boys affirm credentials with ruthless execution. Match cements red card's transformative power in competitive fixtures.

Thun vs Young Boys preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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