Thun vs Basel Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stockhorn Arena Sat, 18 Apr - 6:30 PM
Super League Thun THU 
3 
1
1
Basel BAS Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 33 · Regular Season
Elmin Rastoder - 64'
Michael Heule - 53'
Christopher Ibayi - 28'
|
Julien Duranville - 56'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
Thun delivered a shock 3-1 victory over Basel in the Swiss Challenge League, overturning pre-match perceptions of Basel as the stronger team. The hosts struck first in the opening half and piled on two more goals after the interval, capitalizing on limited possession of just 41 percent. Basel held 59 percent of the ball and created pressure but squandered chances, managing only a single reply. No red cards marred the contest, and the game proceeded without major interruptions or tactical overhauls. Thun's clinical edge proved decisive against Basel's dominance in territory. This outcome reflects a minimal structural deviation of 2.1 percent, underscoring Thun's opportunistic prowess.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Thun's win registered a minimal 2.1 percent deviation from pre-match structural expectations.
- Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
- xG alignment: xG data absence prevents outcome consistency assessment with expected goals.
- Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
- xG expectations: Lack of xG metrics precludes evaluation against performance forecasts.
- Event impact: Empty event log indicates no impactful second-half adjustments occurred.
- Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to underlying match metrics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
M. Turkes
• 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Other match officials
V. Antony
2nd Assistant
H. Qovanaj
4th Official
M. Sbrissa
1st Assistant
M. Lustrinelli
VS
S. Lichtsteiner
2.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.58
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lugano Rank: L
Zürich Rank: L
Grasshopper Rank: W
Young Boys Rank: W
St. Gallen Rank: D
Luzern Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Young Boys Rank: D
Winterthur Rank: W
Servette Rank: W
St. Gallen Rank: L
Grasshopper Rank: W
Lausanne Sport Rank: W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 15 - 33
33
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Thun97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Basel0.22%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.04 26.54 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Thun BaselPower Score
25.04
26.54
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Thun — Opponent-weighted form score
Basel — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Thun Basel
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Thun
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Basel
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Thun ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Basel
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
47.32
33.05
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.05
47.32
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Thun +1.28 Efficiency Index
vs
Basel -1.28 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Thun
Basel
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Thun ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Basel
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Thun Basel Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Thun Basel Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Thun
Basel
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Thunvs
Basel
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Thun Basel Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Thun 0.35
Basel 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Thun Basel Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Thun 0.02
Basel 0.06
Thun
Basel
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- BAS had peak pressure around 60'.
- BAS started the game with stronger pressure.
THU Pressure BAS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BAS reached the top pressure at 60' (81.52).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 54 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Thun THU Home
54 matches
Basel BAS Away
Match Record 6
Wins
33
15
Draws
15
33
Losses
6
Goals 60
Goals Scored
119
119
Goals Conceded
60
-59
Goal Difference
+59
Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:07:15+00:00
STARTING XI
Thun Basel Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
24 N. Steffen
47 F. Fehr
4 G. Montolio Lafuente
19 J. Bamert
M. Bürki
#2390+1'
27 M. Heule
6 L. Bertone
B. Labeau Melchior
#9674'
16 J. Roth
N. Rupp
#2063'
77 F. Meichtry
M. Käit
#1463'
7 K. Imeri
V. Matoshi
#7874'
18 C. Ibayi
74 E. Rastoder
1 M. Hitz
31 D. Schmid
24 F. Daniliuc
4 B. Omeragic
K. Rüegg
#2759'
3 N. Vouilloz
M. Broschinski
#1790+1'
5 A. Silu
K. Koindredi
#870'
22 L. Leroy
11 B. Traore
10 X. Shaqiri
J. Duranville
#1846'
21 I. Salah
G. Koloto
#3769'
23 A. Ajeti
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 06:30 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 33 · Regular Season
🏟️ Stadium :
Stockhorn Arena
👥 Capacity :
10398
🎟️ Attendance :
10014
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Mirel Turkes
Venancius Antony
Hajrim Qovanaj
Matthias Sbrissa
Next Match
Thun
vs
Lugano
League: Super League
Kickoff: Sat, 25 Apr - 6:30 PM
Venue: Stockhorn Arena
Basel
vs
Sion
League: Super League
Kickoff: Sun, 26 Apr - 12:00 PM
Venue: St. Jakob-Park
Statistics
Possession
THU
43%
BAS
57%
Top Statistics
3 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 6
48 Dangerous attacks 50
41 Possession 59
5 Corners 8
8 Free kicks 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
Match Overview
1 Hit Woodwork 0
8 Goal Kicks 4
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 80
17 Throwins 20
20 Dribble Attempts 15
9 Successful Dribbles 12
3 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 3
11 Goal Attempts 11
54 Ball Safe 87
Attacking
72 Attacks 79
0 Big Chances Missed 2
Possession
285 Passes 412
61 Long Passes 57
27 Successful Long Passes 34
76 Successful Passes Percentage 81
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 60
216 Successful Passes 335
10 Key Passes 14
Defensive
17 Tackles 15
4 Saves 5
44 Duels Won 58
14 Interceptions 10
Build-up
16 Total Crosses 18
1 Accurate Crosses 6
Discipline
19 Fouls 8
3 Offsides 3
Lineup
Thun Referee : Mirel Turkes
Manager ▼
M. Lustrinelli Coach
Starting XI ▼
24 Niklas Steffen Goalkeeper
6.924 Genís Montolio Defender
7.11
19 Jan Bamert Defender
7.0127 Michael Heule Defender
23Marco Bürki
Defender90+1'
6.86
47 Fabio Fehr Defender
7.156 Leonardo Bertone Midfielder
7.047 Kastriot Imeri Midfielder
7.0114Mattias Käit
6.92Midfielder63'
16 Justin Roth Midfielder
6.7996Brighton Labeau
6.75Attacker74'
77 Franz-Ethan Meichtry Midfielder
6.8520Noah Rupp
6.6Midfielder63'
18 Christopher Ibayi Attacker
78Valmir Matoshi
6.69Midfielder74'
74 Elmin Rastoder Attacker
Substitutes ▼
14Mattias Käit
6.92Midfielder63'
20Noah Rupp
6.6Midfielder63'
96Brighton Labeau
6.75Attacker74'
78Valmir Matoshi
6.69Midfielder74'
23Marco Bürki
Defender90+1'
6.86
Bench ▼
25 Tim Spycher Goalkeeper
6.9237 Lucien Dähler Defender
6.849
Furkan Dursun Attacker
6.6733 Marc Gutbub Attacker
6.51 Basel Referee : Mirel Turkes
Manager ▼
S. Lichtsteiner Coach
Starting XI ▼
1 Marwin Hitz Goalkeeper
7.23 Nicolas Vouilloz Defender
6.9127Kevin Rüegg
6.53Defender59'
4 Becir Omeragic Defender
6.7924 Flavius Daniliuc Defender
7.0931 Dominik Schmid Defender
7.355 Metinho Midfielder
7.0217Moritz Broschinski
6.48Attacker90+1'
10 Xherdan Shaqiri Midfielder
7.4
11 Bénie Traoré Midfielder
7.0121 Ibrahim Salah Midfielder
6.92
18Julien Duranville
Attacker46'
22 Léo Leroy Midfielder
6.88
8Koba Koindredi
6.67Midfielder70'
23 Albian Ajeti Attacker
6.6337Giacomo Koloto
6.77Attacker69'
Substitutes ▼
18Julien Duranville
Attacker46'
27Kevin Rüegg
6.53Defender59'
37Giacomo Koloto
6.77Attacker69'
8Koba Koindredi
6.67Midfielder70'
17Moritz Broschinski
6.48Attacker90+1'
Bench ▼
13
Mirko Salvi Goalkeeper
6.3925
Finn van Breemen Defender
6.7529 Moussa Cissé Defender
6.6714 Andrej Bacanin Midfielder
6.77Events
2ND-HALF
Marco Bürki
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+3'
Marco Bürki → Michael Heule
10th Substitution
90+1'
90+1'
Moritz Broschinski → Metinho
9th Substitution
80'
Xherdan Shaqiri
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Brighton Labeau → Justin Roth
7th Substitution
74'
Valmir Matoshi → Christopher Ibayi
8th Substitution
74'
70'
Koba Koindredi → Léo Leroy
6th Substitution
69'
Giacomo Koloto → Albian Ajeti
5th Substitution
Elmin Rastoder
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
64'
Mattias Käit → Kastriot Imeri
3rd Substitution
63'
Noah Rupp → Franz-Ethan Meichtry
4th Substitution
63'
59'
Kevin Rüegg → Nicolas Vouilloz
2nd Substitution
58'
Léo Leroy
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
56'
Julien Duranville
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Michael Heule
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
53'
46'
Julien Duranville → Ibrahim Salah
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Christopher Ibayi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
28'
27'
Ibrahim Salah
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Genís Montolio
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
14'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Thun exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.
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