Telstar vs Heracles Almelo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
BUKO Stadion Sun, 10 May - 2:45 PM
Eredivisie
Telstar TEL
3 Winner 0
Heracles Almelo HEA
Full Time Sun, 10 May 2:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Jeff Hardeveld - 77'
Tyrese Noslin - 72'
Guus Offerhaus - 70'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Luka Kulenovic 90+2'

CONTEXT

Telstar secured a convincing 3-0 victory over Heracles Almelo in a match defined by second-half dominance. The first half ended level at 0-0, with Heracles holding a slight edge in possession at 54% to Telstar's 46%. Despite being considered the stronger side, Heracles' game unraveled after receiving a red card, leaving them with ten men. Telstar capitalized ruthlessly, scoring all three goals post-halftime to overturn the expected outcome. The win represents a minimal structural deviation for Telstar, aligning with efficiency norms and market previews. Possession favored the visitors, yet Telstar's clinical finishing and exploitation of numerical superiority proved decisive. No xG data was available to further assess chance quality, but the red card clearly distorted proceedings in Telstar's favor.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Telstar recorded minimal structural deviation of 4.6%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market view.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: Heracles red card shifted momentum decisively to Telstar.
  • Red card distortion: Red card caused second-half distortion favoring Telstar.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Serdar Gozubuyuk

Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Honig

2nd Assistant

Netherlands

J. Kuipers

4th Official

Netherlands

P. Inia

1st Assistant

Netherlands

League averages

Eredivisie Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.36
Yellow cards / match 2.4
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.1
Telstar A. Correia
A. Correia
VS
Heracles Almelo E. Faber
E. Faber
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.5
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 74 D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 67 W
FC Utrecht Rank: 72 L
FC Groningen Rank: 67 L
PSV Rank: 86 W
SC Heerenveen Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
PEC Zwolle Rank: 63 L
FC Volendam Rank: 59 L
Ajax Rank: 76 L
SC Heerenveen Rank: 71 L
Excelsior Rank: 62 D
AZ Rank: 76 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Telstar
95.39%
Draw
3.67%
Away Heracles Almelo
0.94%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.53
54.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Telstar
Heracles Almelo
Power Score
53.53
54.63
League Position
15
18
Global Rank
382
656

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Telstar — Opponent-weighted form score
Heracles Almelo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Telstar Heracles Almelo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Telstar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Heracles Almelo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Telstar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Heracles Almelo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.98
16.11
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.11
30.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Telstar +1.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Heracles Almelo -1.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Telstar
Heracles Almelo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Telstar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Heracles Almelo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Telstar Heracles Almelo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Telstar Heracles Almelo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Telstar
Heracles Almelo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Telstar
vs
Heracles Almelo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Telstar Heracles Almelo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Telstar 0.27
Heracles Almelo 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Telstar Heracles Almelo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Telstar 0.00
Heracles Almelo 0.07
Telstar
Heracles Almelo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TEL had peak pressure around 74'.
  • TEL started the game with stronger pressure.
TEL Pressure HEA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TEL reached the top pressure at 74' (83.02).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Telstar TEL Home
1 matches
Heracles Almelo HEA Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:04:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Koeman Jr.
Netherlands
1 R. Koeman Jr.
N. Ogidi Nwankwo
Netherlands
14 N. Ogidi Nwankwo
D. Koswal
Substitution
Netherlands
21 D. Koswal
D. Bakker
Netherlands
6 D. Bakker
T. Noslin
Substitution
Netherlands
11 T. Noslin
G. Offerhaus
Netherlands
4 G. Offerhaus
C. Hatenboer
Substitution
23 C. Hatenboer
J. Hardeveld
Netherlands
2 J. Hardeveld
S. Hetli
Substitution
Netherlands
7 S. Hetli
P. Brouwer
Netherlands
27 P. Brouwer
S. van Duijn
Substitution
Netherlands
37 S. van Duijn
Pitch
T. Jansink
Netherlands
16 T. Jansink
D. van der Kust
Suriname
5 D. van der Kust
D. Mirani
Netherlands
4 D. Mirani
M. te Wierik
Substitution
Netherlands
23 M. te Wierik
M. Benita
Netherlands
2 M. Benita
R. Bozinovski
Substitution
Australia
20 R. Bozinovski
J. Žambůrek
Czech Republic
13 J. Žambůrek
M. Engels
Substitution
Germany
8 M. Engels
W. Ould-Chikh
Netherlands
73 W. Ould-Chikh
T. van Gilst
Netherlands
17 T. van Gilst
L. Kulenović
Canada
19 L. Kulenović

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 02:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
BUKO Stadion
Capacity :
3200
Attendance :
5142
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Rogier Honig
Joshua Kuipers
Serdar Gozubuyuk
Patrick Inia

Statistics

Possession
TEL
47%
HEA
53%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 4
45 Dangerous attacks 34
46 Possession 54
6 Corners 7
12 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

14 Successful Headers 14
14 Throwins 23
8 Goal Kicks 8
6 Dribble Attempts 11
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
2 Successful Dribbles 7
6 Substitutions 3
1 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Assists 0
8 Goal Attempts 3
39 Ball Safe 40

Attacking

81 Attacks 64
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

209 Successful Passes 261
60 Long Passes 68
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 60
9 Key Passes 4
27 Successful Long Passes 41
73 Successful Passes Percentage 81
287 Passes 322

Defensive

11 Tackles 4
9 Interceptions 6
1 Saves 3
39 Duels Won 36

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 27
5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

12 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Serdar Gozubuyuk

Starting XI ▼

1
Ronald Koeman Jr.
Ronald Koeman Jr. Goalkeeper
6
Danny Bakker
Danny Bakker Defender
14
Neville Ogidi Nwankwo
Neville Ogidi Nwankwo Defender
21
Devon Koswal
Devon Koswal Defender
28
Rojendro Oudsten
Rojendro Oudsten
Attacker85'
2
Jeff Hardeveld
Jeff Hardeveld Midfielder
4
Guus Offerhaus
Guus Offerhaus Midfielder
11
Tyrese Noslin
Tyrese Noslin Midfielder
15
Adil Lechkar
Adil Lechkar
Defender80'
23
Cedric Hatenboer
Cedric Hatenboer Midfielder
39
Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp
Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp
Midfielder46'
7
Soufiane Hetli
Soufiane Hetli Attacker
30
Kay Tejan
Kay Tejan
Attacker66'
27
Patrick Brouwer
Patrick Brouwer Attacker
37
Sem van Duijn
Sem van Duijn Attacker
9
Jelani Seedorf
Jelani Seedorf
Attacker80'
Referee : Serdar Gozubuyuk

Starting XI ▼

16
Timo Jansink
Timo Jansink Goalkeeper
2
Mimeirhel Benita
Mimeirhel Benita Defender
4
Damon Mirani
Damon Mirani Defender
5
Djevencio van der Kust
Djevencio van der Kust Defender
23
Mike te Wierik
Mike te Wierik Defender
6
Sava-Arangel Cestic
Sava-Arangel Cestic
Defender67'
8
Mario Engels
Mario Engels Midfielder
14
Erik Ahlstrand
Erik Ahlstrand
Midfielder67'
13
Jan Zamburek
Jan Zamburek Midfielder
17
Tristan van Gilst
Tristan van Gilst Midfielder
20
Rhys Bozinovski
Rhys Bozinovski Midfielder
10
Thomas Bruns
Thomas Bruns
Midfielder67'
73
Walid Ould-Chikh
Walid Ould-Chikh Midfielder
19
Luka Kulenovic
Luka Kulenovic Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Luka Kulenovic
Card adjusted
90+2'
Event
Luka Kulenovic
Foul / 1st Redcard
Event
Rojendro Oudsten → Devon Koswal
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Kay Tejan
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Adil Lechkar → Tyrese Noslin
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Nils Rossen → Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Jelani Seedorf → Sem van Duijn
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Jeff Hardeveld
Header / 3rd Goal
77'
Event
Tyrese Noslin
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
72'
Event
Guus Offerhaus
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
70'
67'
Event
Sava-Arangel Cestic → Mike te Wierik
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Erik Ahlstrand → Mario Engels
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Thomas Bruns → Rhys Bozinovski
4th Substitution
Event
Kay Tejan → Soufiane Hetli
2nd Substitution
66'
52'
Event
Tristan van Gilst
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp → Cedric Hatenboer
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Luka Kulenovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
27'
Event
Mimeirhel Benita
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luka Kulenovic receives a second yellow card.
90
Red Card Red Card Important
The VAR decision has overturned the red card for Luka Kulenovic.
90
Red Card Red Card Important
Luka Kulenovic receives a red card.
88
Attempt Attempt
Walid Ould Chikh takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Update Update
Rojendro Oudsten replaces Devon Koswal.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kay Tejan receives a yellow card.
81
Update Update
Adil Lechkar replaces Tyrese Noslin.
81
Substitution Substitution
Nils Rossen is substituted for Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp.
81
Update Update
Jelani Seedorf comes on for Sem van Duijn.
77
Update Update
Jeff Hardeveld scores with a header.
75
Attempt Attempt
Tristan van Gilst attempts a header but misses the shot.
73
Attempt Attempt
Luka Kulenovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
72
Attempt Attempt
Tyrese Noslin takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Guus Offerhaus scores to make it 1-0.
70
Attempt Attempt
Guus Offerhaus scores with a right-footed shot.
69
Attempt Attempt
Tyrese Noslin's right-footed shot is blocked.
69
Attempt Attempt
Danny Bakker takes a shot with his head, but it’s saved.
68
Update Update
Sava-Arangel Cestic comes on for Mike te Wierik.
68
Update Update
Thomas Bruns is on, and Rhys Bozinovski is off.
68
Update Update
Erik Ahlstrand comes on for Mario Engels.
68
Update Update
Kay Tejan is on, and Soufiane Hetli is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
Sem van Duijn takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Rhys Bozinovski has a shot, but it's blocked.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tristan van Gilst receives a yellow card.
51
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Brouwer's header is saved.
49
Attempt Attempt
Neville Ogidi Nwankwo's header is saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Luka Kulenovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
46
Update Update
Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp comes on for Cedric Hatenboer.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luka Kulenovic receives a yellow card.
33
Attempt Attempt
Jeff Hardeveld takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Mimeirhel Benita.
25
Attempt Attempt
Danny Bakker takes a right-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Walid Ould Chikh takes a right-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Tristan van Gilst takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Soufiane Hetli takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Brouwer's header shot misses the target.

CONCLUSION

Telstar's 3-0 triumph over favored Heracles Almelo underscores the impact of discipline and opportunism. Trailing in possession and strength ratings, Telstar waited for the red card break before unleashing three goals in the second half. This minimal deviation outcome aligned with market signals and efficiency baselines, though absent xG limits deeper analysis. Heracles' numerical disadvantage distorted the contest, enabling Telstar's control. The result boosts Telstar's standing while exposing Heracles' vulnerability under pressure, highlighting how key events can redefine matches.

Telstar vs Heracles Almelo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.