Sweden vs Tunisia Prediction, Preview and Stats
World Cup
Tunisia
TUN
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
Sweden delivered a dominant performance to defeat Tunisia 5-1 in this fixture. Starting with a 2-1 lead at the break, the home team added three more goals after the interval to seal a comprehensive victory. Although possession stats were balanced at 49 percent for Sweden and 51 percent for Tunisia, the expected goals told of a clear superiority with Sweden posting 1.54 against 0.31. The stronger side lived up to their billing by converting opportunities efficiently throughout the contest. No red cards were shown to either team, allowing the match to proceed without disciplinary disruptions. This result highlighted a notable deviation from typical patterns for Sweden, who exceeded projections in their attacking output. The game showcased how clinical finishing can overcome even parity in ball control.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Sweden recorded a significant 50 percent deviation as the designated stronger team.
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Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections for both sides.
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xG alignment: The final outcome proved consistent with the underlying expected goals data.
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Market alignment: The result stayed aligned with pre-match indicators throughout the contest.
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xG expectations: Sweden generated 1.54 xG compared to Tunisia's 0.31 for a 1.23 differential.
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Event impact: Sweden secured a 5-1 victory after leading 2-1 at halftime.
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Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so the match experienced zero distortion from dismissals.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
Y. Falcón Pérez
Other match officials
M. Del Yesso
1st Assistant
F. Rodríguez
2nd Assistant
J. Calderón
4th Official
League averages
World Cup Based on last 100 matches
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Sweden
Tunisia
Movement
Changes since opening
Sweden
Tunisia
Team Power Ranking
i
63.89
31.48
Sweden
Tunisia
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Sweden
Tunisia
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Sweden
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency









Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)








Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
















Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.




























PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- SWE had peak pressure around 9'.
- SWE started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
















Data last updated: 2026-06-16T00:00:15+00:00
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General Information
Next Match


Sweden
vs
Netherlands
League: World Cup
Kickoff: Sat, 20 Jun - 5:00 PM
Venue: Houston Stadium


Tunisia
vs
Japan
League: World Cup
Kickoff: Sun, 21 Jun - 4:00 AM
Venue: Monterrey Stadium
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup


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Events
CONCLUSION
Sweden vs Tunisia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
How We Build This Analysis
BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.
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Author
Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.

Match Commentary