Sweden vs Tunisia Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
Monterrey Stadium Mon, 15 Jun - 2:00 AM
World Cup
Sweden SWE
5 Winner 1
Tunisia TUN
Full Time Mon, 15 Jun 2:00 AM
Round 1 Group Stage
Yasin Ayari - 90+6', 7'
Mattias Svanberg - 84'
Viktor Gyökeres - 59'
Alexander Isak - 30'
Goal
|
Goal
Omar Rekik - 43'

CONTEXT

Sweden delivered a dominant performance to defeat Tunisia 5-1 in this fixture. Starting with a 2-1 lead at the break, the home team added three more goals after the interval to seal a comprehensive victory. Although possession stats were balanced at 49 percent for Sweden and 51 percent for Tunisia, the expected goals told of a clear superiority with Sweden posting 1.54 against 0.31. The stronger side lived up to their billing by converting opportunities efficiently throughout the contest. No red cards were shown to either team, allowing the match to proceed without disciplinary disruptions. This result highlighted a notable deviation from typical patterns for Sweden, who exceeded projections in their attacking output. The game showcased how clinical finishing can overcome even parity in ball control.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sweden recorded a significant 50 percent deviation as the designated stronger team.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections for both sides.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome proved consistent with the underlying expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: The result stayed aligned with pre-match indicators throughout the contest.
  • xG expectations: Sweden generated 1.54 xG compared to Tunisia's 0.31 for a 1.23 differential.
  • Event impact: Sweden secured a 5-1 victory after leading 2-1 at halftime.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so the match experienced zero distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Y. Falcón Pérez

Argentina 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

M. Del Yesso

1st Assistant

Argentina

F. Rodríguez

2nd Assistant

Argentina

J. Calderón

4th Official

Costa Rica

League averages

World Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 8.48
Yellow cards / match 0.95
Red cards / match 0.07
Penalties / match 0.05
Sweden G. Potter
G. Potter
VS
Tunisia S. Lamouchi
S. Lamouchi
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sweden
49.99%
Draw
27.77%
Away Tunisia
22.25%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sweden
-47.31%
Draw
+25.4%
Tunisia
+21.93%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
63.89
31.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sweden
Tunisia
Power Score
63.89
31.48
League Position
1
4
Global Rank
38
44

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Sweden Opponent-weighted form score
Tunisia Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sweden Tunisia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Sweden

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Tunisia

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sweden ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tunisia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.02
15.78
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.78
31.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sweden +1.37 Efficiency Index
vs
Tunisia -1.37 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sweden
Tunisia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sweden
vs
Tunisia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sweden Tunisia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
19%
77%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.29 vs -0.24
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sweden Tunisia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
77%
19%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.24 vs -0.29
Sweden
Tunisia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Sweden
vs
Tunisia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sweden Tunisia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sweden Tunisia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Sweden
Tunisia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SWE had peak pressure around 9'.
  • SWE started the game with stronger pressure.
SWE Pressure TUN Pressure
Pressure Index: SWE reached the top pressure at 9' (64.19).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sweden SWE Home
0 matches
Tunisia TUN Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-16T00:00:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
K. Nordfeldt
Sweden
23 K. Nordfeldt
G. Lagerbielke
Sweden
2 G. Lagerbielke
I. Hien
Sweden
4 I. Hien
V. Nilsson Lindelöf
Sweden
3 (C) V. Nilsson Lindelöf
J. Karlström
Substitution
Sweden
16 J. Karlström
A. Bernhardsson
Substitution
Sweden
21 A. Bernhardsson
B. Nygren
Substitution
Sweden
10 B. Nygren
Y. Ayari
Sweden
18 Y. Ayari
G. Gudmundsson
Substitution
Sweden
5 G. Gudmundsson
V. Gyökeres
Sweden
17 V. Gyökeres
A. Isak
Substitution
Sweden
9 A. Isak
Pitch
A. Chamakh
Tunisia
1 A. Chamakh
A. Abdi
Tunisia
2 A. Abdi
A. Ben Hmida
Tunisia
21 A. Ben Hmida
M. Talbi
Tunisia
3 M. Talbi
O. Rekik
Tunisia
4 O. Rekik
Y. Valery
Substitution
Tunisia
20 Y. Valery
H. Mejbri
Tunisia
10 H. Mejbri
E. Skhiri
Substitution
Tunisia
17 (C) E. Skhiri
R. Khedira
Substitution
Tunisia
13 R. Khedira
A. Slimane
Substitution
Tunisia
25 A. Slimane
E. Saad
Substitution
Tunisia
8 E. Saad

General Information

Date & Time :
Jun 15, 2026, 02:00 AM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round 1 · Group Stage
Stadium :
Monterrey Stadium
Capacity :
53500
Attendance :
50987
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Yael Falcón Pérez
Maximiliano Del Yesso
Facundo Rodríguez
Juan Calderón

Statistics

Possession
SWE
50%
TUN
50%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 4
44 Dangerous attacks 41
49 Possession 51
4 Corners 2
14 Free kicks 13
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

64 Ball Safe 58
6 Goal Kicks 10
11 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
18 Throwins 17
15 Successful Headers 15
4 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0
12 Dribble Attempts 16
5 Successful Dribbles 7
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44

Attacking

91 Attacks 91
2 Big Chances Missed 0
5 Counter Attacks 0

Possession

58 Long Passes 53
356 Passes 371
278 Successful Passes 292
78 Successful Passes Percentage 79
11 Key Passes 4
22 Successful Long Passes 24
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45

Defensive

1 Saves 1
14 Tackles 21
6 Interceptions 6
41 Duels Won 51

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 13
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

3 Offsides 6
10 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Yael Falcón Pérez

Starting XI

23
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
Kristoffer Nordfeldt Goalkeeper
6.56
2
Gustaf Lagerbielke
Gustaf Lagerbielke Defender
6.43
3
Victor Lindelöf
Victor Lindelöf (C) Defender
6.57
4
Isak Hien
Isak Hien Defender
6.8
5
Gabriel Gudmundsson
Gabriel Gudmundsson Midfielder
6.8
24
Elliot Stroud
Elliot Stroud
Midfielder65'
6.61
10
Benjamin Nygren
Benjamin Nygren Midfielder
6.57
7
Lucas Bergvall
Lucas Bergvall
Midfielder65'
6.83
16
Jesper Karlström
Jesper Karlström Midfielder
6.47
19
Mattias Svanberg
Mattias Svanberg
Midfielder84'
7.23
18
Yasin Ayari
Yasin Ayari Midfielder
2
8.54
21
Alexander Bernhardsson
Alexander Bernhardsson Midfielder
6.37
8
Daniel Svensson
Daniel Svensson
Defender90+1'
9
Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak Attacker
8.24
11
Anthony Elanga
Anthony Elanga
Attacker90'
17
Viktor Gyökeres
Viktor Gyökeres Attacker
8.34
Referee : Yael Falcón Pérez

Starting XI

1
Abdelmouhib Chamakh
Abdelmouhib Chamakh Goalkeeper
4.85
2
Ali Abdi
Ali Abdi Defender
5.68
3
Montassar Talbi
Montassar Talbi Defender
7.15
4
Omar Rekik
Omar Rekik Defender
6.62
20
Yan Valery
Yan Valery Defender
5.82
15
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
Midfielder72'
6.58
21
Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida
Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida Defender
6.69
10
Hannibal
Hannibal Midfielder
7.27
13
Rani Khedira
Rani Khedira Midfielder
5.97
11
Ismaël Gharbi
Ismaël Gharbi
Attacker83'
5.56
17
Ellyes Skhiri
Ellyes Skhiri (C) Midfielder
5.93
7
Elias Achouri
Elias Achouri
Midfielder72'
6.54
8
Elias Saad
Elias Saad Attacker
6.49
26
Sebastian Tounekti
Sebastian Tounekti
Attacker72'
6.13
25
Anis Slimane
Anis Slimane Attacker
6.55
19
Firas Chaouat
Firas Chaouat
Attacker84'
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Yasin Ayari
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
90+6'
Event
Daniel Svensson Alexander Bernhardsson
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Anthony Elanga Alexander Isak
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Mattias Svanberg
Goal awarded
86'
Event
Mattias Svanberg
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
84'
Event
Mattias Svanberg Jesper Karlström
8th Substitution
84'
84'
Event
Firas Chaouat Anis Slimane
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Ismaël Gharbi Rani Khedira
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Elias Achouri Ellyes Skhiri
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud Yan Valery
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Sebastian Tounekti Elias Saad
5th Substitution
Event
Lucas Bergvall Benjamin Nygren
1st Substitution
65'
Event
Elliot Stroud Gabriel Gudmundsson
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Viktor Gyökeres
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
59'
54'
Event
Rani Khedira
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Omar Rekik
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Alexander Isak
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
30'
Event
Yasin Ayari
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
7'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sweden: Daniel Svensson comes on for Alexander Bernhardsson.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sweden: Daniel Svensson comes on for Alexander Bernhardsson.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Victor Lindelöf of Sweden.
90
Update Update
Elias Achouri from Tunisia is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
90
Update Update
Gustaf Lagerbielke from Sweden is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Ali Abdi of Tunisia.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Elias Achouri from Tunisia has his right-footed shot from outside the box saved in the center of the goal by Kristoffer Nordfeldt from Sweden.
90
Update Update
Firas Chaouat of Tunisia is caught offside.
90
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Yasin Ayari scores for Sweden with a right-footed shot from outside the box. The match score is now Sweden 5, Tunisia 1.
90
Update Update
Firas Chaouat from Tunisia is caught offside.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sweden leads 5-1 against Tunisia. Yasin Ayari scores for Sweden with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Lucas Bergvall.
88
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Bergvall's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Viktor Gyökeres.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sweden: Anthony Elanga comes on for Alexander Isak.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sweden after a concession by Mohamed Amine Ben Hmida.
84
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Substitution for Tunisia: Firas Chaouat comes on for Anis Ben Slimane.
84
Update Update
VAR is checking the goal scored by Mattias Svanberg for Sweden.
84
Update Update
Firas Chaouat from Tunisia is caught offside.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Ali Abdi of Tunisia.
83
Update Update
Offside for Sweden. Alexander Isak is caught in an offside position.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sweden: Mattias Svanberg comes on for Jesper Karlström.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Ali Abdi from Tunisia.
77
Update Update
Alexander Bernhardsson of Sweden wins a free kick on the right wing.
76
Update Update
Elias Achouri is caught offside for Tunisia.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sweden after a concession by Hadj Mahmoud.
75
Update Update
Isak Hien from Sweden commits a handball.
73
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas Bergvall of Sweden.
73
Update Update
Hannibal Mejbri from Tunisia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tunisia: Hadj Mahmoud comes on for Yan Valery.
72
Update Update
Isak Hien from Sweden wins a free kick in the defensive half.
72
Update Update
Foul committed by Sebastian Tounekti of Tunisia.
71
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tunisia: Elias Achouri comes on for Ellyes Skhiri.
68
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are set to continue.
66
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Viktor Gyökeres from Sweden, who took a right-footed shot from the right side of the box.
66
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Isak's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Viktor Gyökeres provided the assist.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sweden: Elliot Stroud comes on for Gabriel Gudmundsson due to an injury.
65
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Viktor Gyökeres from Sweden takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the box.
65
Update Update
Elias Saad commits a foul for Tunisia.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sweden: Lucas Bergvall comes on for Benjamin Nygren.
63
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Gabriel Gudmundsson from Sweden.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sweden: Elliot Stroud comes on for Gabriel Gudmundsson due to an injury.
62
Update Update
Hannibal Mejbri from Tunisia wins a free kick in the attacking half.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Foul committed by Victor Lindelöf of Sweden.
58
Corner Corner
Goal! Sweden leads 3-1 against Tunisia. Viktor Gyökeres scores for Sweden with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Alexander Isak.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tunisia after Gabriel Gudmundsson concedes.
56
Update Update
Foul committed by Yan Valery of Tunisia.
56
Update Update
Gabriel Gudmundsson from Sweden is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
55
Corner Corner
Montassar Talbi from Tunisia misses an attempt with a header from the center of the box, sending it high and wide to the left. He was assisted by Hannibal Mejbri, who delivered a cross following a corner.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tunisia after Isak Hien concedes.
54
Update Update
Offside called against Sweden. Alexander Isak is caught offside.
53
Update Update
Sweden is called offside. Alexander Isak is the player caught in the offside position.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rani Khedira from Tunisia receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
51
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Hannibal Mejbri's right-footed shot from outside the box is too high after a direct free kick for Tunisia.
51
Update Update
Mohamed Amine Ben Hmida from Tunisia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
51
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Hannibal Mejbri's right-footed shot from outside the box is too high after a direct free kick for Tunisia.
51
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Gyökeres from Sweden has a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked. Jesper Karlström provided the assist.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Jesper Karlström from Sweden.
48
Update Update
Offside for Sweden. Alexander Isak has been caught offside.
48
Update Update
Elias Saad from Tunisia is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
46
Update Update
Gabriel Gudmundsson wins a free kick for Sweden in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at 2-1 in favor of Sweden.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Yan Valery of Tunisia.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Ali Abdi from Tunisia.
41
Update Update
Alexander Bernhardsson from Sweden is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
36
Update Update
Goal! Tunisia scores, making it 2-1 against Sweden. Omar Rekik heads the ball in from the center of the box.
33
Update Update
Hannibal Mejbri from Tunisia is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Benjamin Nygren of Sweden.
32
Corner Corner
Sweden wins a corner after Mohamed Amine Ben Hmida concedes it.
31
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Victor Lindelöf's header from the center of the box goes high and wide to the right. He was assisted by Benjamin Nygren, who delivered a cross after a corner.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner awarded to Sweden after a concession by Ali Abdi.
26
Update Update
Elias Saad of Tunisia is caught offside.
22
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
22
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Sweden leads Tunisia 2-0. Alexander Isak scores for Sweden with a right-footed shot from outside the box after a fast break.
22
Attempt Attempt
Rani Khedira from Tunisia has a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's blocked. Anis Ben Slimane provided the assist.
18
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
16
Update Update
Elias Saad from Tunisia wins a free kick in the defensive half.
16
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Gudmundsson of Sweden.
13
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Elias Saad from Tunisia takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
11
Update Update
Omar Rekik from Tunisia wins a free kick in the defensive half.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Yasin Ayari of Sweden.
10
Update Update
Offside for Tunisia. Anis Ben Slimane is caught in an offside position.
7
Update Update
Rani Khedira commits a foul for Tunisia.
7
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Yasin Ayari wins a free kick for Sweden in the defensive half.
6
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Gyökeres from Sweden has his left-footed shot from the center of the box blocked.
6
Update Update
Gabriel Gudmundsson of Sweden commits a handball.
5
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Sweden leads Tunisia 1-0. Yasin Ayari scores for Sweden with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
3
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
3
Update Update
Delay in the match in Sweden.
1
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Viktor Gyökeres from Sweden, who took a right-footed shot from the center of the box.

CONCLUSION

The match underscored Sweden's ability to capitalize on their chances despite not dominating possession. With an xG differential favoring them substantially, the 5-1 scoreline accurately reflected their superiority on the day. Tunisia struggled to create meaningful opportunities, managing only 0.31 in expected goals. The halftime situation of 2-1 set the stage for Sweden's second-half surge. Overall, this performance aligns with the pre-match indicators and demonstrates efficiency in line with expectations. The lack of red cards meant no unusual distortions affected the flow. Such results emphasize the importance of clinical play in determining outcomes beyond mere possession metrics.

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Author

Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.