Südtirol vs Modena Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Marco Druso Sat, 11 Apr - 1:00 PM

Serie B

Südtirol SUD

1 – 1

Modena MOD

Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 1:00 PM

Round 34 Regular Season

Nicola Pietrangeli - 60'

Simone Santoro - 21'

CONTEXT

The match between Südtirol and Modena is finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-0 to Südtirol. The hosts overturned a half-time deficit of 0-1, scoring in the second half to claim all three points in a game that saw no red cards or other major disciplinary incidents. This result marked a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, with Südtirol emerging as the winner despite Modena being viewed as the stronger side beforehand. The projection had pointed toward a different outcome, and the final result did not align with that forecast. Possession was closely contested throughout, finishing at 47% for Südtirol and 53% for Modena, while no xG data was available to measure chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with general expectations, even as the victory provided a clear upset. Overall, Südtirol capitalized on their opportunities after the interval to secure a result that contradicted the anticipated flow of the contest. (168 words)

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Südtirol showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

A. Zanotti

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Monaco

1st Assistant

C. Rinaldi

2nd Assistant

N. Turrini

4th Official

F. Castori

A. Sottil

1.15

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.32

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 3 - 4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Südtirol

4.07%

Draw

91.85%

Modena

4.07%

Team Power Ranking

18.72

21.29

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Südtirol

Modena

Power Score

18.72

21.29

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score

Modena — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Südtirol Modena

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Südtirol

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Modena

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Modena

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

45.53

37.74

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

37.74

45.53

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Südtirol +0.74 Efficiency Index

Modena -0.74 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Südtirol

Modena

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Modena

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Südtirol Modena

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Südtirol Modena

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Südtirol

Modena

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Südtirol

Modena

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Südtirol Modena

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Südtirol Modena

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Südtirol

Modena

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

SUD had peak pressure around 64'.
SUD started the game with stronger pressure.

SUD Pressure MOD Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: SUD reached the top pressure at 64' (67.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Südtirol SUD Home

8 matches

Modena MOD Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-5

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:04:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2

31 M. Adamonis

5 A. Masiello

19 N. Pietrangeli

34 F. Veseli

79 S. Molina

21 F. Tait

18 S. Tronchin

17 D. Casiraghi

7 K. Zedadka

9 E. Pecorino

33 S. Merkaj

1 L. Chichizola

20 B. Nieling

19 S. Nador

77 D. Tonoli

98 L. Zanimacchia

8 S. Santoro

16 F. Gerli

2 G. Beyuku Bowutankoyi

11 P. Lobo Peixoto Mineiro Mendes

17 Y. Massolin

99 M. De Luca

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 11, 2026, 01:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Marco Druso

Capacity :

5539

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Andrea Zanotti

Giacomo Monaco

Carlo Rinaldi

Niccolò Turrini

Statistics

Possession

SUD

48%

MOD

52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

6 Big Chances Created 1

7 Shots 8

68 Dangerous attacks 60

47 Possession 53

7 Corners 9

12 Free kicks 11

1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58

11 Goal Kicks 12

12 Dribble Attempts 12

1 Penalties 0

23 Throwins 16

4 Successful Dribbles 7

5 Substitutions 5

3 Hit Woodwork 0

66 Ball Safe 74

0 Injuries 3

10 Goal Attempts 10

1 Assists 0

Attacking

82 Attacks 69

5 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

206 Successful Passes 243

281 Passes 320

22 Successful Long Passes 28

52 Long Passes 68

42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

73 Successful Passes Percentage 76

13 Key Passes 11

Defensive

8 Tackles 13

2 Saves 4

3 Interceptions 7

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 4

28 Total Crosses 24

Discipline

11 Fouls 12

1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Andrea Zanotti

Manager ▼

F. Castori Coach

Starting XI ▼

Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper

Andrea Masiello Defender

Federico Davi

Defender46'

Nicola Pietrangeli Defender

Frédéric Veseli Defender

Karim Zedadka Midfielder

Daniele Casiraghi Midfielder

Jacopo Martini

Midfielder77'

Simone Tronchin Midfielder

Marco Frigerio

Midfielder69'

Fabian Tait Midfielder

Domen Črnigoj

Midfielder46'

Salvatore Molina Midfielder

Emanuele Pecorino Attacker

Raphael Odogwu

Attacker84'

Silvio Merkaj Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Domen Črnigoj

Midfielder46'

Federico Davi

Defender46'

Marco Frigerio

Midfielder69'

Jacopo Martini

Midfielder77'

Raphael Odogwu

Attacker84'

Bench ▼

Daniele Borra Goalkeeper

Daniel Theiner Goalkeeper

Filipe Bordon Defender

Davide Mancini Defender

Simone Davi Defender

Simone Verdi Midfielder

Riccardo Tonin Attacker

Referee : Andrea Zanotti