Südtirol vs Mantova Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Marco Druso Sat, 25 Apr - 1:00 PM

Serie B

Südtirol SUD

Mantova MAN

Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 1:00 PM

Round 36 Regular Season

David Wieser - 83'

Tommaso Marras - 41'

Simone Trimboli - 35'

CONTEXT

Südtirol faced Mantova at home, resulting in a 0-3 defeat for the hosts. Mantova asserted dominance early, securing a 2-0 lead by halftime with 59% possession against Südtirol's 41%. The visitors maintained control in the second half, adding a third goal without any red cards or structural disruptions from events. This outcome reflected a significant 68.1% structural deviation favoring Mantova, identified as the stronger team. Pre-match market probabilities did not align with the final result, as Mantova outperformed expectations. Efficiency metrics for both sides remained in line with projections, though xG data was unavailable for precise alignment assessment. No second-half adjustments altered the trajectory, allowing Mantova's superiority to manifest fully.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: The match showed a 68.1% significant structural deviation towards Mantova.
Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams stayed in line with expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
Market alignment: The outcome did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
xG expectations: xG expectations remain unevaluable without data.
Event impact: No events or adjustments impacted the match structure.
Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

M. Ferrieri Caputi

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Giuggioli

1st Assistant

A. Mazza

4th Official

E. Scarpa

2nd Assistant

F. Castori

F. Modesto

1.11

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.3

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 2 - 1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Südtirol

33.02%

Draw

35.05%

Mantova

31.93%

Movement

Changes since opening

Südtirol

+31.84%

Draw

+30.89%

Mantova

-62.73%

Team Power Ranking

17.46

23.16

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Südtirol

Mantova

Power Score

17.46

23.16

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score

Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Südtirol Mantova

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Südtirol

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Mantova

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Mantova

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

26.22

21.78

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

21.78

26.22

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Südtirol +0.42 Efficiency Index

Mantova -0.42 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Südtirol

Mantova

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Mantova

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Südtirol Mantova

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Südtirol Mantova

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Südtirol

Mantova

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Südtirol

Mantova

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Südtirol Mantova

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Südtirol Mantova

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Südtirol

Mantova

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

SUD had peak pressure around 85'.
MAN started the game with stronger pressure.

SUD Pressure MAN Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: SUD reached the top pressure at 85' (75.95).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Südtirol SUD Home

3 matches

Mantova MAN Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-2

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:01:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-1-1

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

31 M. Adamonis

34 F. Veseli

19 N. Pietrangeli

5 A. Masiello

79 S. Molina

21 F. Tait

6 J. Martini

17 D. Casiraghi

24 S. Davì

11 R. Tonin

90 R. Odogwu

24 F. Bardi

27 A. Castellini

29 S. Cella

3 A. Dembélé

50 F. Benaissa-Yahia

21 S. Trimboli

80 R. Kouda

96 T. Maggioni

19 F. Ruocco

23 T. Marras

9 L. Mancuso

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 25, 2026, 01:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Marco Druso

Capacity :

5539

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

Lorenzo Giuggioli

Andrea Mazza

Eugenio Scarpa

Statistics

Possession

SUD

44%

MAN

56%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3

1 Big Chances Created 2

0 Shots 5

55 Dangerous attacks 37

41 Possession 59

2 Corners 2

12 Free kicks 15

2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 0

13 Throwins 12

10 Goal Kicks 11

0 Assists 2

5 Substitutions 5

2 Hit Woodwork 1

93 Ball Safe 125

0 Injuries 3

6 Dribble Attempts 1

4 Successful Dribbles 0

9 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

101 Attacks 100

1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

334 Passes 527

235 Successful Passes 426

62 Long Passes 77

25 Successful Long Passes 21

40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27

70 Successful Passes Percentage 81

6 Key Passes 8

Defensive

44 Duels Won 35

2 Saves 0

8 Tackles 6

10 Interceptions 6

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 7

6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

15 Fouls 12

3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

Manager ▼

F. Castori Coach

Starting XI ▼

Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper

6.76

Andrea Masiello Defender

6.52

Hamza El Kaouakibi

Defender56'

6.88

Nicola Pietrangeli Defender

6.5

Frédéric Veseli Defender

6.55

Jacopo Martini Midfielder

6.68

Marco Frigerio

Midfielder56'

6.56

Daniele Casiraghi Midfielder

7.04

Fabian Tait Midfielder

6.65

Domen Črnigoj

Midfielder72'

6.53

Simone Davi Midfielder

6.63

Salvatore Molina Midfielder

6.92

Riccardo Tonin Attacker

6.65

Silvio Merkaj

Attacker46'

6.65

Raphael Odogwu Attacker

6.81

Emanuele Pecorino

Attacker46'

6.94

Substitutes ▼

Silvio Merkaj

Attacker46'

6.65

Emanuele Pecorino

Attacker46'

6.94

Marco Frigerio

Midfielder56'

6.56

Hamza El Kaouakibi

Defender56'

6.88

Domen Črnigoj

Midfielder72'

6.53

Bench ▼

Daniele Borra Goalkeeper

Daniel Theiner Goalkeeper

Davide Mancini Defender

6.34

Carlo Sabatini Defender

Federico Davi Defender

6.51

Simone Tronchin Midfielder

6.77

Dhirar Brik Midfielder

6.45

Referee : Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi