Südtirol vs Juve Stabia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Marco Druso Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Südtirol SUD
1 – 1
Juve Stabia JUV
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Domen Črnigoj - 60'
Goal
|
Goal
Alessandro Gabrielloni - 36'

CONTEXT

Sudtirol and Juve Stabia played out a 1-1 draw in Serie C action. The visitors struck first, leading 1-0 at halftime with 58% possession compared to Sudtirol's 42%. Identified as the stronger side, Juve Stabia controlled much of the game but couldn't hold the lead. Sudtirol equalized in the second half, showcasing resilience without any red cards or major disruptions. The match featured no significant tactical adjustments post-interval. This outcome reflects a moderate 9.1% structural deviation favoring Juve Stabia, with overall efficiency in line with norms. Possession disparity highlighted Juve Stabia's dominance, yet the home side's fightback secured a point. No xG data was available to further assess chance quality.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed moderate 9.1% structural deviation favoring Juve Stabia.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No notable events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Marinelli

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Politi

1st Assistant

Italy

P. Bitonti

2nd Assistant

Italy

R. Dasso

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.27
Yellow cards / match 4.04
Red cards / match 0.31
Penalties / match 0.29
Südtirol F. Castori
F. Castori
VS
Juve Stabia I. Abate
I. Abate
1.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sampdoria Rank: 53 L
Mantova Rank: 52 L
Spezia Rank: 49 L
Modena Rank: 57 D
Cesena Rank: 52 D
Frosinone Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone Rank: 67 L
Pescara Rank: 48 D
Catanzaro Rank: 59 D
Cesena Rank: 52 W
Venezia Rank: 71 L
Spezia Rank: 52 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Südtirol
5.51%
Draw
90.89%
Away Juve Stabia
3.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
51.55
56.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Südtirol
Juve Stabia
Power Score
51.55
56.38
League Position
16
7
Global Rank
751
614

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Juve Stabia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Südtirol Juve Stabia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Südtirol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Juve Stabia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Juve Stabia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
65.48
12.93
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.93
65.48
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Südtirol +5.00 Efficiency Index
vs
Juve Stabia -5.00 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Südtirol
Juve Stabia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Juve Stabia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Südtirol Juve Stabia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Südtirol Juve Stabia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Südtirol
Juve Stabia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Südtirol
vs
Juve Stabia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Südtirol Juve Stabia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Südtirol 0.26
Juve Stabia 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Südtirol Juve Stabia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Südtirol 0.03
Juve Stabia 0.01
Südtirol
Juve Stabia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SUD had peak pressure around 64'.
  • JUV started the game with stronger pressure.
SUD Pressure JUV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SUD reached the top pressure at 64' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Südtirol SUD Home
3 matches
Juve Stabia JUV Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
3
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:02:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Pitch
M. Adamonis
Lithuania
31 M. Adamonis
H. El Kaouakibi
Morocco
94 H. El Kaouakibi
N. Pietrangeli
Italy
19 N. Pietrangeli
F. Veseli
Substitution
Albania
34 F. Veseli
S. Molina
Italy
79 S. Molina
F. Tait
Substitution
Italy
21 F. Tait
S. Tronchin
Substitution
Italy
18 S. Tronchin
D. Casiraghi
Substitution
Italy
17 D. Casiraghi
S. Davì
Italy
24 S. Davì
S. Merkaj
Albania
33 S. Merkaj
E. Pecorino
Substitution
Italy
9 E. Pecorino
Pitch
P. Boer
Italy
23 P. Boer
M. Bellich
Substitution
Italy
6 M. Bellich
C. Dalle Mura
Italy
14 C. Dalle Mura
S. Diakite
Substitution
France
46 S. Diakite
M. Mannini
Italy
76 M. Mannini
A. Ciammaglichella
Substitution
Italy
17 A. Ciammaglichella
E. Torrasi
Italy
28 E. Torrasi
C. Pierobon
Italy
10 C. Pierobon
M. Ricciardi
Substitution
Italy
2 M. Ricciardi
F. Maistro
Substitution
Italy
37 F. Maistro
A. Gabrielloni
Italy
9 A. Gabrielloni

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Marco Druso
Capacity :
5539
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Livio Marinelli
Mattia Politi
Paolo Bitonti
Riccardo Dasso

Statistics

Possession
SUD
46%
JUV
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
23 Shots 6
90 Dangerous attacks 30
42 Possession 58
8 Corners 2
7 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

21 Throwins 30
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
4 Successful Dribbles 3
10 Dribble Attempts 12
3 Goal Kicks 15
17 Goal Attempts 3
44 Ball Safe 106
1 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

133 Attacks 83
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

356 Passes 535
73 Successful Passes Percentage 81
261 Successful Passes 434
54 Long Passes 75
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27
16 Successful Long Passes 20
18 Key Passes 5

Defensive

6 Interceptions 11
48 Duels Won 45
0 Saves 4
15 Tackles 11

Build-up

39 Total Crosses 10
15 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

11 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Livio Marinelli

Starting XI ▼

31
Marius Adamonis
Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper
19
Nicola Pietrangeli
Nicola Pietrangeli Defender
34
Frédéric Veseli
Frédéric Veseli Defender
7
Karim Zedadka
Karim Zedadka
Midfielder56'
94
Hamza El Kaouakibi
Hamza El Kaouakibi Defender
17
Daniele Casiraghi
Daniele Casiraghi Midfielder
99
Mike van Dijk
Mike van Dijk
Midfielder64'
18
Simone Tronchin
Simone Tronchin Midfielder
26
Marco Frigerio
Marco Frigerio
Midfielder64'
21
Fabian Tait
Fabian Tait Midfielder
89
Domen Črnigoj
Domen Črnigoj
Midfielder56'
24
Simone Davi
Simone Davi Midfielder
79
Salvatore Molina
Salvatore Molina Midfielder
9
Emanuele Pecorino
Emanuele Pecorino Attacker
90
Raphael Odogwu
Raphael Odogwu
Attacker74'
33
Silvio Merkaj
Silvio Merkaj Attacker
Referee : Livio Marinelli

Starting XI ▼

23
Pietro Boer
Pietro Boer Goalkeeper
6
Marco Bellich
Marco Bellich Defender
33
Andrea Giorgini
Andrea Giorgini
Defender46'
14
Christian Dalle Mura
Christian Dalle Mura Defender
46
Salim Diakité
Salim Diakité Defender
21
Sheriff Kassama
Sheriff Kassama
Defender46'
2
Manuel Ricciardi
Manuel Ricciardi Midfielder
70
Matheus Luz Priveato Dos Santos
Matheus Luz Priveato Dos Santos
Attacker82'
10
Christian Pierobon
Christian Pierobon Midfielder
17
Aaron Ciammaglichella
Aaron Ciammaglichella Midfielder
27
Leonardo Candellone
Leonardo Candellone
Attacker62'
28
Emanuele Torrasi
Emanuele Torrasi Midfielder
76
Mattia Mannini
Mattia Mannini Midfielder
9
Alessandro Gabrielloni
Alessandro Gabrielloni Attacker
37
Fabio Maistro
Fabio Maistro Attacker
8
Kevin Zeroli
Kevin Zeroli
Midfielder46'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Karim Zedadka
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
90'
82'
Event
Matheus Luz Priveato Dos Santos → Manuel Ricciardi
10th Substitution
Event
Raphael Odogwu → Emanuele Pecorino
9th Substitution
74'
Event
Mike van Dijk → Daniele Casiraghi
8th Substitution
64'
Event
Marco Frigerio → Simone Tronchin
7th Substitution
64'
62'
Event
Leonardo Candellone → Aaron Ciammaglichella
6th Substitution
Event
Domen Črnigoj
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
60'
Event
Domen Črnigoj → Fabian Tait
4th Substitution
56'
Event
Karim Zedadka → Frédéric Veseli
5th Substitution
56'
46'
Event
Andrea Giorgini → Marco Bellich
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Kevin Zeroli → Fabio Maistro
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Sheriff Kassama → Salim Diakité
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Alessandro Gabrielloni
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Domen Crnigoj takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Simone Verdi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Hamza El Kaouakibi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Hamza El Kaouakibi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Hamza El Kaouakibi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Raphael Odogwu takes a left-footed shot but misses.
82
Update Update
Luz Dos Santos Priveato Matheu is on, and Manuel Ricciardi is off.
80
Attempt Attempt
Silvio Merkaj attempts a header but misses the shot.
75
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Mannini takes a right-footed shot but misses.
74
Update Update
Raphael Odogwu is on, and Emanuele Pecorino is off.
69
Attempt Attempt
Karim Zedadka takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Simone Verdi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Update Update
Simone Verdi comes on for Daniele Casiraghi.
64
Update Update
Marco Frigerio is replaced by Simone Tronchin.
62
Update Update
Leonardo Candellone comes on for Aaron Ciammaglichella.
60
Attempt Attempt
Domen Crnigoj scores with a right-footed shot.
57
Attempt Attempt
Hamza El Kaouakibi's header is saved.
56
Update Update
Karim Zedadka replaces Frederic Veseli.
56
Update Update
Domen Crnigoj replaces Fabian Tait.
51
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Ricciardi's right-footed shot is blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Silvio Merkaj takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Sheriff Kassama comes on for Salim Diakite.
46
Update Update
Andrea Giorgini is on, and Marco Bellich is off.
46
Update Update
Sheriff Kassama comes on for Salim Diakite.
44
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Maistro takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Gabrielloni's right-footed shot is blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Maistro's right-footed shot is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Salvatore Molina takes a right-footed shot but misses.
38
Update Update
Emanuele Pecorino attempts a header but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Gabrielloni takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
33
Attempt Attempt
Simone Tronchin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Simone Tronchin's right-footed shot is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Salvatore Molina's right-footed shot is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Silvio Merkaj's left-footed shot is saved.
18
Update Update
Emanuele Pecorino takes a header but misses the target.
17
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Pecorino's left-footed shot is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Pecorino's left-footed shot is blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Silvio Merkaj attempts a header but misses the shot.
10
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Ciammaglichella takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw underscores Sudtirol's second-half grit against a possession-dominant Juve Stabia. Despite the visitors' edge as the stronger team and halftime lead, the home side's equalizer prevented defeat. Moderate structural deviation of 9.1% towards Juve Stabia indicates a result slightly askew from form, yet market alignment confirms expectations of parity. Efficiency held steady without shifts, and lack of red cards ensured a clean flow. This point boosts Sudtirol's survival hopes while denting Juve Stabia's promotion push in a balanced Serie C encounter.

Südtirol vs Juve Stabia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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