Südtirol vs Bari 1908 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Marco Druso Fri, 22 May - 6:00 PM
Serie B
Südtirol SUD
0 – 0
Bari 1908 BAR
Full Time Fri, 22 May 6:00 PM
Final Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 0

CONTEXT

Südtirol hosted Bari 1908 in the second leg of their knockout tie with the aggregate level at 0-0 following a goalless first leg seven days earlier. The match concluded 0-0 after a balanced contest that saw neither side find the net despite periods of pressure. Südtirol controlled 45 percent of possession while Bari 1908 held 55 percent as both teams prioritized defensive structure over open attacking play. No goals were scored at halftime and the score remained unchanged through the second period. The stronger side on paper failed to convert territorial advantages into clear opportunities. With no red cards shown to either team the game stayed at eleven versus eleven throughout. The result leaves the tie unresolved and sets up further resolution in extra time or penalties.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Südtirol 0-0 Bari 1908. Südtirol showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed team patterns across the ninety minutes.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed because expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome proved inconsistent with pre-match market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations stayed undetermined due to the absence of underlying metrics.
  • Event impact: The goalless draw carried direct impact on the aggregate standing entering extra time.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued so match dynamics experienced no red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. La Penna

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Perrotti

1st Assistant

Italy

A. Costanzo

2nd Assistant

Italy

F. Fourneau

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.87
Yellow cards / match 4.1
Red cards / match 0.3
Penalties / match 0.28
Südtirol F. Castori
F. Castori
VS
Bari 1908 M. Longo
M. Longo
1.11
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bari 1908 Rank: 51 D
Juve Stabia Rank: 57 D
Sampdoria Rank: 53 L
Mantova Rank: 55 L
Spezia Rank: 52 L
Modena Rank: 56 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: 51 D
Catanzaro Rank: 61 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 49 W
Avellino Rank: 53 L
Venezia Rank: 71 L
Monza Rank: 66 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 4 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Südtirol
50.94%
Draw
28.1%
Away Bari 1908
20.96%

Movement

Changes since opening
Südtirol
+43.12%
Draw
-59.61%
Bari 1908
+16.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
51.67
51.58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Südtirol
Bari 1908
Power Score
51.67
51.58
League Position
16
17
Global Rank
729
733

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Bari 1908 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Südtirol Bari 1908

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Südtirol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bari 1908

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bari 1908
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.22
20.36
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.36
49.22
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Südtirol +2.77 Efficiency Index
vs
Bari 1908 -2.77 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Südtirol
Bari 1908
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bari 1908
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Südtirol Bari 1908
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Südtirol Bari 1908
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Südtirol
Bari 1908
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Südtirol
vs
Bari 1908
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Südtirol Bari 1908
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Südtirol 0.30
Bari 1908 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Südtirol Bari 1908
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Südtirol 0.00
Bari 1908 0.00
Südtirol
Bari 1908
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SUD had peak pressure around 53'.
  • BAR started the game with stronger pressure.
SUD Pressure BAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SUD reached the top pressure at 53' (78.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Südtirol SUD Home
11 matches
Bari 1908 BAR Away
Match Record
4
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
4
Goals
8
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
8
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-23T00:01:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
M. Adamonis
Lithuania
31 M. Adamonis
H. El Kaouakibi
Morocco
94 H. El Kaouakibi
N. Pietrangeli
Italy
19 N. Pietrangeli
F. Veseli
Albania
34 F. Veseli
S. Molina
Italy
79 S. Molina
M. Frigerio
Substitution
Italy
26 M. Frigerio
S. Tronchin
Italy
18 S. Tronchin
D. Casiraghi
Substitution
Italy
17 D. Casiraghi
S. Davì
Italy
24 S. Davì
S. Merkaj
Albania
33 S. Merkaj
E. Pecorino
Substitution
Italy
9 E. Pecorino
Pitch
M. Cerofolini
Italy
31 M. Cerofolini
E. Dorval
Algeria
93 E. Dorval
D. Nikolaou
Greece
43 D. Nikolaou
C. Odenthal
Netherlands
26 C. Odenthal
V. Mantovani
Substitution
Italy
13 V. Mantovani
K. Piscopo
Italy
28 K. Piscopo
G. Maggiore
Substitution
Italy
18 G. Maggiore
M. Braunöder
Substitution
Austria
27 M. Braunöder
R. Pagano
Substitution
Italy
8 R. Pagano
E. Rao
Substitution
Italy
17 E. Rao
G. Moncini
Italy
11 G. Moncini

General Information

Date & Time :
May 22, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Final · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 0
Stadium :
Stadio Marco Druso
Capacity :
5539
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Giuseppe Perrotti
Alessandro Costanzo
Federico La Penna
Francesco Fourneau

Statistics

Possession
SUD
49%
BAR
51%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 2
63 Dangerous attacks 44
45 Possession 55
6 Corners 4
23 Free kicks 20
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20
11 Dribble Attempts 10
26 Throwins 21
5 Successful Dribbles 2
6 Goal Kicks 14
1 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Injuries 0
13 Goal Attempts 5
63 Ball Safe 83
3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

102 Attacks 75
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

250 Passes 319
62 Long Passes 70
156 Successful Passes 221
24 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
13 Key Passes 6
62 Successful Passes Percentage 69
15 Successful Long Passes 25

Defensive

19 Tackles 11
73 Duels Won 51
2 Saves 2
9 Interceptions 6

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 14
6 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

20 Fouls 23
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Federico La Penna

Starting XI ▼

31
Marius Adamonis
Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper
19
Nicola Pietrangeli
Nicola Pietrangeli Defender
34
Frédéric Veseli
Frédéric Veseli Defender
94
Hamza El Kaouakibi
Hamza El Kaouakibi Defender
17
Daniele Casiraghi
Daniele Casiraghi Midfielder
89
Domen Črnigoj
Domen Črnigoj
Midfielder86'
18
Simone Tronchin
Simone Tronchin Midfielder
24
Simone Davi
Simone Davi Midfielder
26
Marco Frigerio
Marco Frigerio Midfielder
21
Fabian Tait
Fabian Tait
Midfielder83'
79
Salvatore Molina
Salvatore Molina Midfielder
9
Emanuele Pecorino
Emanuele Pecorino Attacker
90
Raphael Odogwu
Raphael Odogwu
Attacker86'
33
Silvio Merkaj
Silvio Merkaj Attacker
Referee : Federico La Penna

Starting XI ▼

31
Michele Cerofolini
Michele Cerofolini Goalkeeper
13
Valerio Mantovani
Valerio Mantovani Defender
24
Lorenzo Dickmann
Lorenzo Dickmann
Defender57'
26
Cas Odenthal
Cas Odenthal Defender
43
Dimitrios Nikolaou
Dimitrios Nikolaou Defender
93
Mehdi Dorval
Mehdi Dorval Defender
8
Riccardo Pagano
Riccardo Pagano Midfielder
9
Christian Gytkjaer
Christian Gytkjaer
Attacker68'
18
Giulio Maggiore
Giulio Maggiore Midfielder
29
Matthias Verreth
Matthias Verreth
Midfielder46'
27
Matthias Braunöder
Matthias Braunöder Midfielder
80
Federico Artioli
Federico Artioli
Midfielder84'
28
Kevin Piscopo
Kevin Piscopo Midfielder
11
Gabriele Moncini
Gabriele Moncini Attacker
17
Emanuele Rao
Emanuele Rao Attacker
90
Marvin Cuni
Marvin Cuni
Attacker84'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Domen Črnigoj → Daniele Casiraghi
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Raphael Odogwu → Emanuele Pecorino
8th Substitution
86'
85'
Event
Federico Artioli
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Marvin Cuni → Emanuele Rao
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Federico Artioli → Matthias Braunöder
5th Substitution
Event
Fabian Tait → Marco Frigerio
4th Substitution
83'
81'
Event
Cas Odenthal
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
68'
Event
Christian Gytkjaer → Riccardo Pagano
3rd Substitution
Event
Emanuele Pecorino
Goal disallowed
64'
57'
Event
Lorenzo Dickmann → Valerio Mantovani
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Matthias Verreth → Giulio Maggiore
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Giulio Maggiore
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Hamza El Kaouakibi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
19'

Match Commentary

89
Attempt Attempt
Federico Artioli takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Update Update
Domen Crnigoj comes on for Daniele Casiraghi.
86
Update Update
Raphael Odogwu comes on for Emanuele Pecorino.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Federico Artioli receives a yellow card.
84
Update Update
Marvin Cuni is on, and Emanuele Rao is off.
84
Update Update
Federico Artioli comes on for Matthias Braunoder.
83
Update Update
Fabian Tait comes on for Marco Frigerio.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cas Odenthal receives a yellow card.
80
Attempt Attempt
Christian Gytkjaer takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
80
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Moncini takes a right-footed shot but misses.
79
Attempt Attempt
Silvio Merkaj attempts a header but misses the shot.
73
Attempt Attempt
Christian Gytkjaer takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
73
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Pecorino's shot with another body part is saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Marco Frigerio takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
68
Update Update
Christian Gytkjaer replaces Riccardo Pagano.
62
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Pecorino scores with a left-footed shot.
61
Attempt Attempt
Riccardo Pagano's right-footed shot is blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Marco Frigerio takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
57
Update Update
Lorenzo Dickmann comes on for Valerio Mantovani.
57
Attempt Attempt
Simone Davi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Simone Davi misses with a left-footed shot.
55
Attempt Attempt
Daniele Casiraghi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
55
Attempt Attempt
Daniele Casiraghi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Simone Tronchin's right-footed shot is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Marco Frigerio takes a shot with his head but misses.
46
Attempt Attempt
Hamza El Kaouakibi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Matthias Verreth replaces Giulio Maggiore.
45
Attempt Attempt
Marco Frigerio takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Daniele Casiraghi's right-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Simone Davi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Piscopo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Matthias Braunoder takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Giulio Maggiore receives a yellow card.
34
Attempt Attempt
Simone Davi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Rao takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hamza El Kaouakibi receives a yellow card.
18
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Pecorino takes a left-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Pecorino's header is saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Pecorino's left-footed shot is blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Silvio Merkaj takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

The 0-0 draw in the second leg preserved the aggregate deadlock and forced the tie into additional periods. Both teams displayed disciplined defending that limited clear scoring chances despite Bari 1908 enjoying a slight edge in possession. Südtirol as the nominally stronger side could not translate home advantage into decisive moments. The absence of goals and cards kept the contest even and free of major disruptions. This outcome highlights the tactical caution shown by both coaches in a high-stakes knockout setting. Further resolution now depends on extra time or a penalty shootout to determine which side advances. The match statistics reflect a tightly contested affair with limited openings created by either attack.

Südtirol vs Bari 1908 preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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