Sturm Graz vs SK Rapid Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Merkur Arena Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Sturm Graz STU
2 Winner 0
SK Rapid SCR
Full Time Sun, 17 May 12:30 PM
Round 10 Championship Round
Stefan Hierländer - 90+1'
Gizo Mamageishvili - 88'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Yusuf Demir 22'

CONTEXT

Sturm Graz hosted SK Rapid in a contest that stayed level at 0-0 through the first half. The home side controlled the majority of possession at 67 percent while limiting the visitors to just 33 percent. Expected goals told a clear story with Sturm Graz registering 2.04 against only 0.28 for SK Rapid. A red card issued to the away team in the second half created further imbalance. Sturm Graz converted their dominance into a 2-0 win that matched the stronger team designation. The outcome aligned with the xG differential of 1.76 and confirmed the pre-match assessment of the favored side. Second-half adjustments centered on the numerical advantage after the dismissal.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Sturm Graz 2-0 SK Rapid. Sturm Graz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with projected performance levels for both sides.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment favored Sturm Graz at 2.04 against SK Rapid's 0.28.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true as the result matched the stronger team designation.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were fulfilled with an outcome consistent with the 1.76 differential.
  • Event impact: Event impact included second-half adjustments triggered by the red card.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion occurred when SK Rapid received one dismissal and Sturm Graz received none.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

H. Lechner

Austria 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Borucki

1st Assistant

Austria

S. Gruber

2nd Assistant

Austria

I. Simsek

4th Official

Austria

League averages

Admiral Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.05
Yellow cards / match 3.67
Red cards / match 0.27
Penalties / match 0.35
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
VS
SK Rapid J. Hoff Thorup
J. Hoff Thorup
1.63
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.11
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hartberg Rank: 59 W
Salzburg Rank: 69 D
Austria Wien Rank: 63 D
LASK Linz Rank: 70 D
LASK Linz Rank: 70 D
Hartberg Rank: 60 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Austria Wien Rank: 64 L
LASK Linz Rank: 67 L
Salzburg Rank: 69 W
Hartberg Rank: 60 L
Hartberg Rank: 60 D
Austria Wien Rank: 64 D
27
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
27 - 25 - 31
31

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sturm Graz
45.29%
Draw
25.57%
Away SK Rapid
29.14%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sturm Graz
-52.57%
Draw
+23.65%
SK Rapid
+28.92%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.72
57.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sturm Graz
SK Rapid
Power Score
69.72
57.98
League Position
2
5
Global Rank
209
548

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
SK Rapid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sturm Graz SK Rapid

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

SK Rapid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sturm Graz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SK Rapid
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.54
14.70
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.70
37.54
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sturm Graz +1.94 Efficiency Index
vs
SK Rapid -1.94 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sturm Graz
SK Rapid
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sturm Graz
vs
SK Rapid
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sturm Graz SK Rapid
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sturm Graz SK Rapid
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Sturm Graz
SK Rapid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sturm Graz
vs
SK Rapid
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sturm Graz SK Rapid
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sturm Graz 0.35
SK Rapid 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sturm Graz SK Rapid
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sturm Graz 0.00
SK Rapid 0.03
Sturm Graz
SK Rapid
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STU had peak pressure around 48'.
  • STU started the game with stronger pressure.
STU Pressure SCR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STU reached the top pressure at 48' (93.67).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 83 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sturm Graz STU Home
83 matches
SK Rapid SCR Away
Match Record
27
Wins
31
25
Draws
25
31
Losses
27
Goals
109
Goals Scored
121
121
Goals Conceded
109
-12
Goal Difference
+12

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:02:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
D. Khudyakov
Russia
53 D. Khudyakov
A. Vallci
Austria
5 A. Vallci
J. Mitchell
Costa Rica
2 J. Mitchell
P. Koller
Austria
30 P. Koller
J. Hödl
Substitution
Austria
43 J. Hödl
L. Weinhandl
Substitution
Austria
39 L. Weinhandl
J. Gorenc Stankovič
Slovenia
4 (C) J. Gorenc Stankovič
E. Karic
Substitution
Austria
17 E. Karic
O. Kiteishvili
Georgia
10 O. Kiteishvili
M. Malone
Substitution
Germany
77 M. Malone
S. Jatta
Substitution
Norway
20 S. Jatta
Pitch
N. Hedl
Austria
1 N. Hedl
S. Raux Yao
France
6 S. Raux Yao
N. Cvetković
Serbia
55 N. Cvetković
J. Schöller
Austria
4 J. Schöller
B. Bolla
Hungary
77 B. Bolla
A. Weimann
Substitution
Austria
26 (C) A. Weimann
A. Romeo
Ivory Coast
29 A. Romeo
N. Wurmbrand
Substitution
Austria
15 N. Wurmbrand
P. Dahl
Substitution
Norway
10 P. Dahl
Y. Demir
Austria
22 Y. Demir
E. Kara
Austria
9 E. Kara

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 10 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Merkur Arena
Capacity :
16764
Attendance :
16150
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Harald Lechner
Alexander Borucki
Sebastian Gruber
Isa Simsek

Statistics

Possession
STU
62%
SCR
38%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 1
63 Dangerous attacks 17
67 Possession 33
9 Corners 3
5 Free kicks 12
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 3
1 Assists 0
21 Goal Attempts 3
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
5 Goal Kicks 20
12 Throwins 15
64 Ball Safe 70
13 Dribble Attempts 12
6 Successful Dribbles 6

Attacking

93 Attacks 62
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

24 Successful Long Passes 25
44 Long Passes 66
87 Successful Passes Percentage 67
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
16 Key Passes 3
382 Successful Passes 151
437 Passes 226

Defensive

12 Tackles 14
36 Duels Won 45
6 Interceptions 10
1 Saves 6

Build-up

12 Accurate Crosses 3
34 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

12 Fouls 5
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Harald Lechner

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
7.07
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Defender
7.09
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
6.95
30
Paul Koller
Paul Koller Defender
6.93
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic (C) Midfielder
7.37
17
Emir Karic
Emir Karic Midfielder
7.3
25
Stefan Hierländer
Stefan Hierländer
Midfielder84'
6.96
39
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl Midfielder
6.29
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili
Midfielder62'
7.22
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
7.35
22
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Defender72'
7.2
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili Attacker
7.82
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
6.39
26
Belmin Beganovic
Belmin Beganovic
Attacker72'
6.56
77
Maurice Malone
Maurice Malone Attacker
6.25
11
Axel Kayombo
Axel Kayombo
Attacker62'
6.54
Referee : Harald Lechner

Starting XI ▼

1
Niklas Hedl
Niklas Hedl Goalkeeper
7.73
4
Jakob Schöller
Jakob Schöller Defender
6.42
6
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao Defender
6.41
55
Nenad Cvetkovic
Nenad Cvetkovic Defender
6.32
15
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
Nikolaus Wurmbrand Midfielder
6.73
20
Ange Ahoussou
Ange Ahoussou
Defender60'
6.24
26
Andreas Weimann
Andreas Weimann (C) Midfielder
6.5
17
Tobias Gulliksen
Tobias Gulliksen
Midfielder86'
29
Romeo Amane
Romeo Amane Midfielder
6.89
77
Bendegúz Bolla
Bendegúz Bolla Midfielder
7.09
9
Ercan Kara
Ercan Kara Attacker
6.71
10
Petter Nosa Dahl
Petter Nosa Dahl Attacker
6.54
8
Lukas Grgic
Lukas Grgic
Midfielder60'
6.33
22
Yusuf Demir
Yusuf Demir Attacker
5.8

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Stefan Hierländer
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+1'
Event
Gizo Mamageishvili
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
88'
86'
Event
Tobias Gulliksen → Andreas Weimann
8th Substitution
Event
Stefan Hierländer → Emir Karic
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Belmin Beganovic → Seedy Jatta
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Jusuf Gazibegovic → Jacob Peter Hödl
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Axel Kayombo → Maurice Malone
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Gizo Mamageishvili → Luca Weinhandl
4th Substitution
62'
60'
Event
Ange Ahoussou → Nikolaus Wurmbrand
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Lukas Grgic → Petter Nosa Dahl
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
22'
Event
Yusuf Demir
Argument / 1st Redcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Hierlander takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
88
Attempt Attempt
Gizo Mamageishvili scores with a right-footed shot.
86
Update Update
Tobias Fjeld Gulliksen replaces Andreas Weimann.
85
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Hierlander takes a header shot but misses.
84
Update Update
Stefan Hierlander comes on for Emir Karic.
83
Attempt Attempt
Otar Kiteishvili takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Otar Kiteishvili takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
75
Attempt Attempt
Jon Gorenc Stankovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
73
Attempt Attempt
Nenad Cvetkovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
72
Update Update
Belmin Beganovic comes on for Seedy Jatta.
72
Update Update
Belmin Beganovic comes on for Seedy Jatta.
71
Attempt Attempt
Jeyland Mitchell attempts a header but misses the shot.
67
Attempt Attempt
Axel Kayombo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Otar Kiteishvili has a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Andreas Weimann takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Update Update
Gizo Mamageishvili comes on for Luca Weinhandl.
62
Substitution Substitution
Axel Kayombo is substituted for Maurice Malone.
60
Update Update
Lukas Grgic comes on for Petter Nosa Dahl.
60
Substitution Substitution
Ange Ahoussou is substituted for Nikolaus Wurmbrand.
58
Attempt Attempt
Nikolaus Wurmbrand takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
58
Update Update
Ercan Kara's header is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Emir Karic's left-footed shot is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Otar Kiteishvili takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Jeyland Mitchell takes a shot with his head but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Emir Karic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Otar Kiteishvili takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Albert Vallci takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Hodl takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Otar Kiteishvili takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
22
Red Card Red Card Important
Yusuf Demir receives a red card.
11
Attempt Attempt
Seedy Jatta takes a right-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Emir Karic attempts a header but misses the shot.
5
Attempt Attempt
Albert Vallci attempts a header but misses the shot.
5
Attempt Attempt
Otar Kiteishvili attempts a header but misses the shot.
3
Attempt Attempt
Otar Kiteishvili takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
2
Attempt Attempt
Seedy Jatta takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Sturm Graz completed a controlled performance to defeat SK Rapid by 2-0 after a scoreless opening period. Possession dominance and a clear expected goals advantage set the platform for the home victory. The sending off of an away player in the second half removed any remaining doubt and allowed Sturm Graz to manage the game comfortably. The final margin reflected both the statistical picture and the on-field reality. With the points secured the home side strengthened their standing while SK Rapid were left to reflect on a challenging afternoon. The result underlined the importance of maintaining discipline and capitalizing on numerical edges when they arise.

Sturm Graz vs SK Rapid preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Admiral Bundesliga, Austria View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.