Sturm Graz vs SK Rapid Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Merkur Arena Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Sturm Graz STU
Versus
SK Rapid SCR
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Round 10 Championship Round

CONTEXT

Sturm Graz host SK Rapid in Admiral Bundesliga (Championship Round) at Merkur Arena. Domestically, Sturm Graz sit 2th in the table while SK Rapid are 5th. Power ranking favours Sturm Graz by 10.6 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Sturm Graz possess a 10.6-point power advantage at 69.45 versus SK Rapid's 58.9, reinforced by 2nd place against 5th in the Championship Round.
  • Form: Sturm Graz lead with a form score of 21 compared to SK Rapid's 7.61.
  • Squad: No detailed squad information available for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics not provided in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG information and low confidence proxy usage.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables not accessible for either team.
  • Market: Sturm Graz 49.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.6% (Δ+0%) | SK Rapid 25% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
VS
SK Rapid J. Hoff Thorup
J. Hoff Thorup
1.63
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.11
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hartberg Rank: 59 W
Salzburg Rank: 69 D
Austria Wien Rank: 63 D
LASK Linz Rank: 66 D
LASK Linz Rank: 69 D
Hartberg Rank: 59 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Austria Wien Rank: 64 L
LASK Linz Rank: 67 L
Salzburg Rank: 69 W
Hartberg Rank: 60 L
Hartberg Rank: 59 D
Austria Wien Rank: 65 D
27
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
27 - 25 - 31
31
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sturm Graz
49.41%
Draw
25.55%
Away SK Rapid
25.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.45
58.9
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sturm Graz
SK Rapid
Power Score
69.45
58.9
League Position
2
5
Global Rank
220
529

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
SK Rapid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sturm Graz SK Rapid

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 83 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sturm Graz STU Home
83 matches
SK Rapid SCR Away
Match Record
27
Wins
31
25
Draws
25
31
Losses
27
Goals
109
Goals Scored
121
121
Goals Conceded
109
-12
Goal Difference
+12

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T01:09:18+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
D. Khudyakov
53 D. Khudyakov
J. Gazibegovic
22 J. Gazibegovic
J. Mitchell
2 J. Mitchell
A. Vallci
5 A. Vallci
E. Karic
17 E. Karic
R. Fosso
80 R. Fosso
J. Gorenc Stankovič
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
J. Hödl
43 J. Hödl
O. Kiteishvili
10 O. Kiteishvili
A. Kayombo
11 A. Kayombo
S. Jatta
20 S. Jatta
Pitch
N. Hedl
1 N. Hedl
S. Raux Yao
6 S. Raux Yao
N. Cvetković
55 N. Cvetković
J. Schöller
4 J. Schöller
J. Horn
38 J. Horn
M. Seidl
18 M. Seidl
A. Romeo
29 A. Romeo
B. Bolla
77 B. Bolla
P. Dahl
10 P. Dahl
J. Antiste
90 J. Antiste
A. Weimann
26 A. Weimann

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 10 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Merkur Arena
Capacity :
16764
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Harald Lechner
Alexander Borucki
Sebastian Gruber
Isa Simsek

Expected Lineup

Referee : Harald Lechner

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
7.02
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Centre Forward
6.62
17
Emir Karic
Emir Karic Left Back
6.95
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Right Wing
6.55
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso Defensive Midfield
6.67
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic Defensive Midfield
6.96
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Left Back
7.17
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili Attacking Midfield
7.34
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Right Back
6.96
11
Axel Kayombo
Axel Kayombo Left Wing
6.51
22
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Jusuf Gazibegovic Right Back
7.01
Referee : Harald Lechner

Starting XI ▼

1
Niklas Hedl
Niklas Hedl Goalkeeper
6.78
90
Janis Antiste
Janis Antiste Midfielder
6.71
38
Jannes Horn
Jannes Horn Midfielder
6.86
77
Bendegúz Bolla
Bendegúz Bolla Midfielder
7.04
10
Petter Nosa Dahl
Petter Nosa Dahl Midfielder
6.74
26
Andreas Weimann
Andreas Weimann Centre Forward
6.61
4
Jakob Schöller
Jakob Schöller Right Back
6.4
18
Matthias Seidl
Matthias Seidl Central Midfield
7.19
29
Romeo Amane
Romeo Amane Central Midfield
6.96
6
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao Left Back
6.89
55
Nenad Cvetkovic
Nenad Cvetkovic Centre Back
7.09

CONCLUSION

Sturm Graz enter as clear favorites, buoyed by superior power ratings, stellar form, and home turf at Merkur Arena. Their 10.6-point edge over SK Rapid, coupled with a lofty second-place standing, positions them to dictate proceedings in this Championship Round encounter. Rapid's challenge lies in overcoming a yawning form deficit and structural shortfall, though fifth place keeps title aspirations alive. Without advanced metrics like efficiency or set pieces, the focus sharpens on Sturm's momentum to secure a statement win and consolidate their podium spot in the Admiral Bundesliga.

Sturm Graz vs SK Rapid preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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