Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Merkur Arena Wed, 22 Apr - 6:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Sturm Graz STU
1 – 1
LASK Linz ASK
Full Time Wed, 22 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 6 Championship Round
Otar Kiteishvili - 78' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Moses Usor - 52'
|
Second yellow card Alemão 18'
Second yellow card Samuel Adeniran 67'

CONTEXT

Sturm Graz hosted LASK Linz in the Austrian Bundesliga, finishing 1-1 after a goalless first half. Sturm Graz dominated with 72% possession but struggled to break down LASK's defense. LASK Linz, deemed the stronger team, endured two red cards, reducing them to nine players, yet clawed back to earn a draw. The numerical disadvantage distorted the second half, where both teams scored once. Despite Sturm's control, LASK's resilience shone through, resulting in a moderate 11.2% structural deviation favoring the visitors. The outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations, showcasing LASK's grit under pressure.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited moderate 11.2% structural deviation favoring LASK Linz.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: Two red cards to LASK Linz heavily influenced game dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red cards created significant second-half distortion for LASK Linz.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Talic

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Heidenreich

1st Assistant

A. Rekik

2nd Assistant

A. Sadikovski

4th Official

Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
VS
LASK Linz D. Kühbauer
D. Kühbauer
1.44
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.06
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
LASK Linz Rank: D
Hartberg Rank: D
SK Rapid Rank: W
Salzburg Rank: D
Austria Wien Rank: W
Rheindorf Altach Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sturm Graz Rank: D
Salzburg Rank: W
Austria Wien Rank: W
SK Rapid Rank: L
Hartberg Rank: D
Wolfsberger AC Rank: W
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 11 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sturm Graz
9.41%
Draw
88.75%
Away LASK Linz
1.84%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sturm Graz
-4.95%
Draw
+5.39%
LASK Linz
-0.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
29.49
31.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sturm Graz
LASK Linz
Power Score
29.49
31.27
League Position
1
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
LASK Linz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sturm Graz LASK Linz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

LASK Linz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sturm Graz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy LASK Linz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.33
36.07
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.07
33.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sturm Graz -0.23 Efficiency Index
vs
LASK Linz +0.23 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sturm Graz
LASK Linz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sturm Graz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy LASK Linz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sturm Graz LASK Linz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sturm Graz LASK Linz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sturm Graz
LASK Linz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sturm Graz
vs
LASK Linz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sturm Graz LASK Linz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sturm Graz 0.25
LASK Linz 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sturm Graz LASK Linz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sturm Graz 0.05
LASK Linz 0.01
Sturm Graz
LASK Linz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STU had peak pressure around 95'.
  • ASK started the game with stronger pressure.
STU Pressure ASK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STU reached the top pressure at 95' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 47 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sturm Graz STU Home
47 matches
LASK Linz ASK Away
Match Record
21
Wins
15
11
Draws
11
15
Losses
21
Goals
78
Goals Scored
60
60
Goals Conceded
78
+18
Goal Difference
-18

Data last updated: 2026-04-23T00:03:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
D. Khudyakov
Russia
53 D. Khudyakov
A. Vallci
Austria
5 A. Vallci
E. Aiwu
Substitution
Austria
47 E. Aiwu
P. Koller
Austria
30 P. Koller
A. Malic
Substitution
Slovenia
23 A. Malic
J. Gorenc Stankovič
Slovenia
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
R. Fosso
Switzerland
80 R. Fosso
E. Karic
Austria
17 E. Karic
O. Kiteishvili
Georgia
10 O. Kiteishvili
M. Malone
Germany
77 M. Malone
S. Jatta
Substitution
Norway
20 S. Jatta
Pitch
L. Jungwirth
Austria
1 L. Jungwirth
A. Andrade Cedeño
Panama
16 A. Andrade Cedeño
J. Tornich
Brazil
43 J. Tornich
M. Cissé
48 M. Cissé
M. Bogarde
Netherlands
6 M. Bogarde
S. Horvath
Substitution
Austria
30 S. Horvath
I. Coulibaly
Substitution
Mali
4 I. Coulibaly
K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
Denmark
20 K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
S. Kalajdzic
Substitution
Austria
10 S. Kalajdzic
S. Adeniran
United States
7 S. Adeniran
M. Usor
Substitution
Nigeria
8 M. Usor

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 22, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 6 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Merkur Arena
Capacity :
16764
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Arnes Talic
Andreas Heidenreich
Amar Rekik
Alain Sadikovski

Statistics

Possession
STU
66%
ASK
34%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
20 Shots 9
80 Dangerous attacks 22
72 Possession 28
7 Corners 5
11 Free kicks 6
3 Yellow Cards 5
0 Red Cards 2

Match Overview

4 Goal Kicks 15
4 Successful Dribbles 8
9 Dribble Attempts 18
14 Goal Attempts 7
3 Injuries 2
1 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Substitutions 4
0 Assists 1
19 Throwins 15
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
1 Penalties 0
54 Ball Safe 64

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
146 Attacks 47

Possession

12 Key Passes 6
468 Passes 182
85 Successful Passes Percentage 65
397 Successful Passes 118
42 Long Passes 49
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
19 Successful Long Passes 17

Defensive

54 Duels Won 38
2 Interceptions 11
17 Tackles 15
4 Saves 2

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 2
36 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
6 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Arnes Talic

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
6.79
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
7.15
30
Paul Koller
Paul Koller Defender
6.86
47
Emanuel Aiwu
Emanuel Aiwu Defender
6.65
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili
Midfielder66'
6.77
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic Midfielder
6.98
17
Emir Karic
Emir Karic Midfielder
6.92
23
Arjan Malic
Arjan Malic Midfielder
6.71
22
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Defender46'
6.87
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso Midfielder
6.69
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili Attacker
7.33
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
6.6
9
Rory Wilson
Rory Wilson
Attacker85'
6.77
77
Maurice Malone
Maurice Malone Attacker
6.75
Referee : Arnes Talic

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Jungwirth
Lukas Jungwirth Goalkeeper
6.81
16
Andrés Andrade
Andrés Andrade Defender
7.26
43
Alemão
Alemão Defender
6.91
48
Modou Kéba Cissé
Modou Kéba Cissé Defender
7.05
4
Ismaila Coulibaly
Ismaila Coulibaly Midfielder
6.75
44
Lukas Kacavenda
Lukas Kacavenda
Midfielder88'
6.55
6
Melayro Bogarde
Melayro Bogarde Midfielder
7.03
20
Kasper Jørgensen
Kasper Jørgensen Midfielder
7
30
Sascha Horvath
Sascha Horvath Midfielder
6.98
52
Cheikne Kébé
Cheikne Kébé
Midfielder90+4'
7
Samuel Adeniran
Samuel Adeniran Attacker
7.01
8
Moses Usor
Moses Usor Attacker
7.2
2
George Bello
George Bello
Defender72'
6.84
10
Sasa Kalajdzic
Sasa Kalajdzic Attacker
6.95
3
Xavier Mbuyamba
Xavier Mbuyamba
Defender46'
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Cheikne Kébé → Sascha Horvath
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Lukas Kacavenda → Ismaila Coulibaly
6th Substitution
Event
Rory Wilson → Seedy Jatta
5th Substitution
85'
Event
Otar Kiteishvili
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
78'
Event
Jeyland Mitchell
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Gizo Mamageishvili
Penalty awarded
75'
72'
Event
George Bello → Moses Usor
4th Substitution
Event
Albert Vallci
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
67'
67'
Event
Samuel Adeniran
Foul / 2nd Yellow/red Card
67'
Event
Modou Kéba Cissé
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Gizo Mamageishvili → Emanuel Aiwu
3rd Substitution
66'
57'
Event
Samuel Adeniran
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Seedy Jatta
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
56'
52'
Event
Moses Usor
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Jusuf Gazibegovic → Arjan Malic
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Xavier Mbuyamba → Sasa Kalajdzic
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
18'
Event
Alemão
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
6'
Event
Alemão
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

LASK Linz's 1-1 draw at Sturm Graz underscores their strength, overcoming two red cards and 28% possession to secure a point. Sturm Graz's 72% possession failed to yield more, exposing finishing issues. The red card distortion adjusted second-half expectations, yet LASK held firm. This moderate deviation result aligns with market views, highlighting LASK's defensive resolve and Sturm's inability to capitalize on dominance in a resilient stalemate.

Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Admiral Bundesliga, Austria View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ