Sturm Graz vs Hartberg Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria

Merkur Arena Sun, 12 Apr - 12:30 PM

Admiral Bundesliga

Sturm Graz STU

0 – 0

Hartberg HTB

Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 12:30 PM

Round 4 Championship Round

CONTEXT

The match between Sturm Graz and Hartberg is finished, ending in a full-time score of 0-0. Pre-match expectations pointed strongly toward a Sturm Graz victory, with forecasts assigning them a 59.3 percent likelihood of winning against only 22.9 percent for a draw. The actual result marked a significant deviation from those projections, especially for Sturm Graz, who entered as the stronger side but were held to a stalemate. This outcome did not align with the pre-match projection. Sturm Graz dominated possession at 61 percent to Hartberg’s 39 percent, yet neither team managed to score. No xG data is available to evaluate chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and the score remained even from half-time through the final whistle. No red cards were shown, and no major disruptive events altered the flow of play.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Sturm Graz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

I. Simsek

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Greinecker

4th Official

R. Riedel

1st Assistant

M. Undesser

2nd Assistant

F. Ingolitsch

M. Schmid

1.59

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.44

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

12 - 4 - 4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Sturm Graz

59.3%

Draw

22.9%

Hartberg

17.8%

Movement

Changes since opening

Sturm Graz

+53.82%

Draw

-68.41%

Hartberg

+14.59%

Team Power Ranking

28.02

21.23

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Sturm Graz

Hartberg

Power Score

28.02

21.23

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score

Hartberg — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sturm Graz Hartberg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Hartberg

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sturm Graz ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Hartberg

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

43.61

48.21

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

48.21

43.61

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Sturm Graz -0.38 Efficiency Index

Hartberg +0.38 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Sturm Graz

Hartberg

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sturm Graz ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Hartberg

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Sturm Graz Hartberg

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Sturm Graz Hartberg

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Sturm Graz

Hartberg

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Sturm Graz

Hartberg

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Sturm Graz Hartberg

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Sturm Graz Hartberg

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Sturm Graz

Hartberg

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

STU had peak pressure around 90'.
STU started the game with stronger pressure.

STU Pressure HTB Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: STU reached the top pressure at 90' (76.89).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sturm Graz STU Home

20 matches

Hartberg HTB Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+10

Goal Difference

-10

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:05:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

Match Formation 3-4-3

53 D. Khudyakov

5 A. Vallci

2 J. Mitchell

30 P. Koller

22 J. Gazibegovic

4 J. Gorenc Stankovič

39 L. Weinhandl

43 J. Hödl

15 G. Mamageishvili

10 O. Kiteishvili

20 S. Jatta

1 A. Helac

6 H. Coulibaly

18 F. Wilfinger

27 K. Schopp

2 L. Pazourek

4 B. Markuš

23 T. Kainz

28 J. Heil

7 E. Havel

30 L. Fridrikas

22 C. Hoffmann

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 12, 2026, 12:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 4 · Championship Round

Stadium :

Merkur Arena

Capacity :

16764

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Markus Greinecker

Isa Simsek

Roland Riedel

Manuel Undesser

Statistics

Possession

STU

58%

HTB

42%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 0

24 Shots 17

52 Dangerous attacks 36

61 Possession 39

5 Corners 8

10 Free kicks 10

2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 15

1 Hit Woodwork 0

34 Throwins 19

18 Dribble Attempts 14

6 Successful Dribbles 6

33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43

4 Substitutions 5

97 Ball Safe 109

0 Injuries 2

11 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

132 Attacks 76

1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

363 Successful Passes 188

81 Successful Passes Percentage 67

447 Passes 280

49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39

20 Successful Long Passes 28

19 Key Passes 11

41 Long Passes 71

Defensive

1 Saves 1

9 Interceptions 9

23 Tackles 22

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 14

5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

9 Fouls 11

1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Isa Simsek

Manager ▼

F. Ingolitsch Coach

Starting XI ▼

Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper

Jeyland Mitchell Defender

Albert Vallci Defender

Paul Koller Defender

Jon Gorenc Stankovic Midfielder

Jusuf Gazibegovic Midfielder

Stefan Hierländer

Midfielder90+2'

Luca Weinhandl Midfielder

Ryan Fosso

Midfielder60'

Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder

Otar Kiteishvili Attacker

Gizo Mamageishvili Attacker

Maurice Malone

Attacker60'

Seedy Jatta Attacker

Rory Wilson

Attacker86'

Substitutes ▼

Ryan Fosso

Midfielder60'

Maurice Malone

Attacker60'

Rory Wilson

Attacker86'

Stefan Hierländer

Midfielder90+2'

Bench ▼

Matteo Bignetti Goalkeeper

Arjan Malic Defender

Niklas Geyrhofer Defender

Emanuel Aiwu Defender

Axel Kayombo Attacker

Referee : Isa Simsek