Sturm Graz vs Austria Wien Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Merkur Arena Sun, 26 Apr - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Sturm Graz STU
1 – 1
Austria Wien FAK
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 7 Championship Round
Paul Koller - 85'
Goal
|
Goal
Tin Plavotic - 54'

CONTEXT

Sturm Graz hosted Austria Wien in the Austrian Bundesliga, finishing with a 1-1 draw despite the home team's clear dominance. Sturm Graz controlled 61% possession against 39%, creating more opportunities but failing to capitalize fully. The first half ended 0-0, with both sides evenly matched at halftime. Goals arrived in the second half, leveling the score and denying Sturm Graz a victory as the stronger team. No red cards disrupted play, and no major second-half adjustments were evident. This outcome showed a moderate 8% structural deviation for Sturm Graz, with efficiency in line with expectations. Market alignment confirmed the draw's consistency with pre-match assessments, though missing xG data limits precise performance evaluation. The result highlights Sturm Graz's possession edge not converting to wins, underscoring balanced defensive efforts from Austria Wien.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sturm Graz showed moderate 8% structural deviation by drawing as the stronger team.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment assessment with outcome.
  • Market alignment: Draw outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to absent data.
  • Event impact: No significant events or adjustments altered match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Ebner

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Höfler

1st Assistant

A. Gutschi

2nd Assistant

A. Harkam

4th Official

Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
VS
Austria Wien S. Helm
S. Helm
1.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
LASK Linz Rank: D
LASK Linz Rank: D
Hartberg Rank: D
SK Rapid Rank: W
Salzburg Rank: D
Austria Wien Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Salzburg Rank: L
Salzburg Rank: L
SK Rapid Rank: D
LASK Linz Rank: L
Hartberg Rank: W
Sturm Graz Rank: L
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 21 - 30
30

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sturm Graz
4.42%
Draw
92%
Away Austria Wien
3.57%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sturm Graz
-0.05%
Draw
+0.07%
Austria Wien
-0.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.09
17.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sturm Graz
Austria Wien
Power Score
27.09
17.38
League Position
1
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Austria Wien — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sturm Graz Austria Wien

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Austria Wien

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sturm Graz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Austria Wien
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.43
20.77
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.77
29.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sturm Graz +0.72 Efficiency Index
vs
Austria Wien -0.72 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sturm Graz
Austria Wien
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sturm Graz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Austria Wien
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sturm Graz Austria Wien
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sturm Graz Austria Wien
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sturm Graz
Austria Wien
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sturm Graz
vs
Austria Wien
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sturm Graz Austria Wien
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sturm Graz 0.41
Austria Wien 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sturm Graz Austria Wien
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sturm Graz 0.05
Austria Wien 0.03
Sturm Graz
Austria Wien
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FAK had peak pressure around 21'.
  • STU started the game with stronger pressure.
STU Pressure FAK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FAK reached the top pressure at 21' (80.90).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 77 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sturm Graz STU Home
77 matches
Austria Wien FAK Away
Match Record
26
Wins
30
21
Draws
21
30
Losses
26
Goals
105
Goals Scored
104
104
Goals Conceded
105
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
2.71
xG
2.21
2.21
xGA
2.71

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:06:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
D. Khudyakov
Russia
53 D. Khudyakov
A. Vallci
Austria
5 A. Vallci
E. Aiwu
Substitution
Austria
47 E. Aiwu
P. Koller
Austria
30 P. Koller
J. Gorenc Stankovič
Slovenia
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
J. Hödl
Austria
43 J. Hödl
O. Kiteishvili
Georgia
10 O. Kiteishvili
G. Mamageishvili
Georgia
15 G. Mamageishvili
E. Karic
Substitution
Austria
17 E. Karic
M. Malone
Substitution
Germany
77 M. Malone
S. Jatta
Substitution
Norway
20 S. Jatta
Pitch
S. Sahin-Radlinger
Austria
1 S. Sahin-Radlinger
T. Plavotic
Croatia
24 T. Plavotic
A. Dragović
Austria
15 A. Dragović
P. Wiesinger
Austria
28 P. Wiesinger
T. Lee
Substitution
South Korea
17 T. Lee
P. Maybach
Substitution
Austria
6 P. Maybach
Lee Kang-Hee
Substitution
South Korea
16 Lee Kang-Hee
R. Ranftl
Austria
26 R. Ranftl
S. Saljic
Substitution
Austria
20 S. Saljic
M. Fischer
Substitution
Austria
30 M. Fischer
K. Boateng
Ghana
14 K. Boateng

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 7 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Merkur Arena
Capacity :
16764
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Stefan Ebner
Martin Höfler
Amina Gutschi
Alexander Harkam

Statistics

Possession
STU
59%
FAK
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 4
4 Shots 3
39 Dangerous attacks 22
61 Possession 39
4 Corners 3
17 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Injuries 1
7 Successful Dribbles 6
35 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
13 Goal Attempts 2
20 Dribble Attempts 14
57 Ball Safe 59
7 Goal Kicks 7
37 Throwins 29

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 3
72 Attacks 55

Possession

12 Key Passes 4
73 Successful Passes Percentage 57
24 Successful Long Passes 20
418 Passes 259
306 Successful Passes 148
59 Long Passes 71
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 28

Defensive

16 Tackles 22
70 Duels Won 55
5 Interceptions 14
2 Saves 4

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 12
5 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

4 Offsides 3
12 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Stefan Ebner

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
6.94
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
7.12
30
Paul Koller
Paul Koller Defender
6.86
47
Emanuel Aiwu
Emanuel Aiwu Defender
6.64
22
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Defender80'
6.89
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic Midfielder
6.99
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili Midfielder
7.35
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili Midfielder
6.8
17
Emir Karic
Emir Karic Midfielder
6.95
9
Rory Wilson
Rory Wilson
Attacker81'
6.72
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
6.58
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
6.61
11
Axel Kayombo
Axel Kayombo
Attacker68'
6.5
77
Maurice Malone
Maurice Malone Attacker
6.75
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso
Midfielder67'
6.67
Referee : Stefan Ebner

Starting XI ▼

1
Samuel Sahin-Radlinger
Samuel Sahin-Radlinger Goalkeeper
6.62
15
Aleksandar Dragovic
Aleksandar Dragovic Defender
6.83
24
Tin Plavotic
Tin Plavotic Defender
6.69
28
Philipp Wiesinger
Philipp Wiesinger Defender
6.82
6
Philipp Maybach
Philipp Maybach Midfielder
6.47
22
Florian Wustinger
Florian Wustinger
Midfielder64'
6.53
16
Kang-hee Lee
Kang-hee Lee Midfielder
6.63
46
Johannes Handl
Johannes Handl
Defender90+1'
6.51
17
Tae-seok Lee
Tae-seok Lee Midfielder
6.9
40
Matteo Schablas
Matteo Schablas
Defender90+1'
6.67
26
Reinhold Ranftl
Reinhold Ranftl Midfielder
6.87
14
Kelvin Boateng
Kelvin Boateng Attacker
6.62
20
Sanel Saljic
Sanel Saljic Attacker
6.7
36
Vasilije Markovic
Vasilije Markovic
Midfielder77'
6.61
30
Manfred Fischer
Manfred Fischer Attacker
6.87
19
Johannes Eggestein
Johannes Eggestein
Attacker77'
7.06

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+7'
90+3'
Event
Johannes Eggestein
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Johannes Handl → Kang-hee Lee
8th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Matteo Schablas → Tae-seok Lee
9th Substitution
Event
Paul Koller
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
85'
Event
Rory Wilson → Emir Karic
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Jusuf Gazibegovic → Emanuel Aiwu
6th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Kelvin Boateng
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Johannes Eggestein → Manfred Fischer
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Vasilije Markovic → Sanel Saljic
4th Substitution
Event
Axel Kayombo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
70'
Event
Axel Kayombo → Seedy Jatta
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Ryan Fosso → Maurice Malone
2nd Substitution
67'
64'
Event
Florian Wustinger → Philipp Maybach
1st Substitution
54'
Event
Tin Plavotic
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw encapsulated a match where Sturm Graz's 61% possession superiority met Austria Wien's resolute defense, resulting in a goalless first half and late parity. As the stronger side, Sturm Graz's moderate deviation reflects missed chances, with efficiencies holding steady. Absent xG and red cards, the game stayed structurally sound, aligning with market views. This point denies Sturm Graz momentum while bolstering Austria Wien's survival bid, emphasizing tactical discipline over dominance in a competitive Bundesliga encounter.

Sturm Graz vs Austria Wien preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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