Strasbourg vs Toulouse Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade de la Meinau Sun, 3 May - 3:15 PM
Ligue 1
Strasbourg STR
1 Winner 2
Toulouse TOU
Full Time Sun, 3 May 3:15 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw - 27'
Goal
|
Goal
Emersonn - 84'
Dayann Methalie - 43'

CONTEXT

In a pulsating Ligue 1 clash at Stade de la Meinau, Toulouse stunned pre-match stronger side Strasbourg with a 2-1 victory. The first half ended 1-1, showcasing balanced action as both teams found the net once. Strasbourg controlled 54% possession overall but faltered in conversion during the second period, allowing Toulouse to net the decisive goal. No red cards marred the proceedings, and the absence of notable second-half adjustments kept the flow natural. This outcome marked a minimal structural deviation of 6.6% in Toulouse's favor, aligning with market expectations despite Strasbourg's favoritism. Efficiency metrics stayed in line, though xG data was unavailable to gauge deeper chance quality. Toulouse's clinical finishing proved the difference, flipping the script on the home side's dominance in ball control. The result underscores the visitors' resilience and opportunistic play.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed minimal 6.6% structural deviation favoring Toulouse.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with overall expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome fully aligned with pre-match market indications.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed without available metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to the 1-2 scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Angoula

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Garrigues

1st Assistant

F. Gonçalves de Araujo

2nd Assistant

M. Jamet

4th Official

Strasbourg G. O'Neil
G. O'Neil
VS
Toulouse C. Martínez Novell
C. Martínez Novell
1.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lorient Rank: 74 W
Rennes Rank: 78 L
Nice Rank: 72 W
Nantes Rank: 67 W
Paris Rank: 73 D
Auxerre Rank: 70 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Monaco Rank: 79 D
Lens Rank: 81 L
LOSC Lille Rank: 79 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 L
Lorient Rank: 75 W
Metz Rank: 62 W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 4 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Strasbourg
0.21%
Draw
6.41%
Away Toulouse
93.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.88
73.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Strasbourg
Toulouse
Power Score
77.88
73.42
League Position
8
10
Global Rank
81
136

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Strasbourg — Opponent-weighted form score
Toulouse — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Strasbourg Toulouse

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Strasbourg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Toulouse

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Strasbourg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Toulouse
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.56
39.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.89
20.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Strasbourg — Efficiency Index
vs
Toulouse — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Strasbourg
Toulouse
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Strasbourg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Toulouse
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Strasbourg Toulouse
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Strasbourg Toulouse
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Strasbourg
Toulouse
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Strasbourg
vs
Toulouse
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Strasbourg Toulouse
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Strasbourg 0.21
Toulouse 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Strasbourg Toulouse
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Strasbourg 0.04
Toulouse 0.02
Strasbourg
Toulouse
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TOU had peak pressure around 55'.
  • TOU started the game with stronger pressure.
STR Pressure TOU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TOU reached the top pressure at 55' (63.80).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Strasbourg STR Home
17 matches
Toulouse TOU Away
Match Record
10
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
10
Goals
30
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
30
+10
Goal Difference
-10

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:05:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Penders
Belgium
39 M. Penders
M. Oyedele
Poland
8 M. Oyedele
I. Doukoure
Substitution
France
6 I. Doukoure
L. Høgsberg
Denmark
24 L. Høgsberg
G. Ouattara
Substitution
France
42 G. Ouattara
S. Amo-Ameyaw
England
27 S. Amo-Ameyaw
M. Amougou
Substitution
France
17 M. Amougou
R. Gonçalves Soares Luís
Portugal
83 R. Gonçalves Soares Luís
G. Yassine
France
80 G. Yassine
S. Nanasi
Substitution
Sweden
11 S. Nanasi
Y. Diémé
Substitution
Senegal
34 Y. Diémé
Pitch
G. Restes
France
1 G. Restes
R. Nicolaisen
Denmark
2 R. Nicolaisen
C. Cresswell
England
4 C. Cresswell
M. McKenzie
United States
3 M. McKenzie
D. Methalie
Substitution
24 D. Methalie
C. Cásseres Yepes
Venezuela
23 C. Cásseres Yepes
A. Vossah
Substitution
France
45 A. Vossah
A. Dønnum
Norway
15 A. Dønnum
Y. Gboho
Substitution
France
10 Y. Gboho
S. Hidalgo Massa
Substitution
Argentina
11 S. Hidalgo Massa
J. Russell-Rowe
Substitution
Canada
13 J. Russell-Rowe

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade de la Meinau
Capacity :
29200
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Gaël Angoula
Julien Garrigues
Florian Gonçalves de Araujo
M. Jamet

Statistics

Possession
STR
52%
TOU
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 3
1 Shots 7
42 Dangerous attacks 47
54 Possession 46
8 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

89 Ball Safe 75
4 Goal Attempts 13
27 Dribble Attempts 27
48 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48
17 Throwins 18
13 Successful Dribbles 13
5 Successful Headers 7
10 Goal Kicks 6
1 Assists 2
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 3

Attacking

82 Attacks 97
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

22 Successful Long Passes 28
415 Successful Passes 346
43 Long Passes 50
6 Key Passes 14
472 Passes 399
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
88 Successful Passes Percentage 87

Defensive

25 Tackles 24
57 Duels Won 50
4 Saves 3
7 Interceptions 7

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 10
2 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

7 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Gaël Angoula

Starting XI ▼

39
Mike Penders
Mike Penders Goalkeeper
6.98
6
Ismaël Doukouré
Ismaël Doukouré Defender
6.67
2
Andrew Omobamidele
Andrew Omobamidele
Defender71'
6.71
8
Maxi Oyedele
Maxi Oyedele Defender
6.72
24
Lucas Høgsberg
Lucas Høgsberg Defender
6.62
42
Abdoul Ouattara
Abdoul Ouattara Defender
6.72
29
Samir El Mourabet
Samir El Mourabet
Midfielder46'
6.94
17
Mathis Amougou
Mathis Amougou Midfielder
6.6
7
Diego Moreira
Diego Moreira
Attacker63'
7
27
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Midfielder
6.67
80
Gessime Yassine
Gessime Yassine Midfielder
6.94
83
Rafael Filipe Gonçalves Soares Luís
Rafael Filipe Gonçalves Soares Luís Midfielder
6.63
11
Sebastian Nanasi
Sebastian Nanasi Attacker
6.82
10
Emmanuel Emegha
Emmanuel Emegha
Attacker82'
7
34
Yaya Diémé
Yaya Diémé Attacker
6.4
19
Julio Enciso
Julio Enciso
Midfielder72'
6.91
Referee : Gaël Angoula

Starting XI ▼

1
Guillaume Restes
Guillaume Restes Goalkeeper
6.76
2
Rasmus Nicolaisen
Rasmus Nicolaisen Defender
6.69
3
Mark McKenzie
Mark McKenzie Defender
6.71
4
Charlie Cresswell
Charlie Cresswell Defender
7.06
15
Aron Dønnum
Aron Dønnum Midfielder
7.32
23
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Cristian Cásseres Jr. Midfielder
7.05
24
Dayann Methalie
Dayann Methalie Midfielder
6.45
12
Warren Kamanzi
Warren Kamanzi
Defender78'
6.54
45
Alexis Vossah
Alexis Vossah Midfielder
6.45
77
Mario Sauer
Mario Sauer
Midfielder82'
6.53
10
Yann Gboho
Yann Gboho Attacker
7
37
Ilyas Azizi
Ilyas Azizi
Attacker82'
6.59
11
Santiago Hidalgo
Santiago Hidalgo Attacker
6.74
19
Djibril Sidibé
Djibril Sidibé
Defender78'
6.73
13
Jacen Russell-Rowe
Jacen Russell-Rowe Attacker
6.55
20
Emersonn
Emersonn
Attacker63'
6.75

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Aron Dønnum
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Emersonn
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Emmanuel Emegha → Sebastian Nanasi
9th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Ilyas Azizi → Yann Gboho
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Mario Sauer → Alexis Vossah
10th Substitution
78'
Event
Warren Kamanzi → Dayann Methalie
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Djibril Sidibé → Santiago Hidalgo
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Alexis Vossah
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Julio Enciso → Yaya Diémé
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Andrew Omobamidele → Ismaël Doukouré
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Diego Moreira → Mathis Amougou
3rd Substitution
63'
63'
Event
Emersonn → Jacen Russell-Rowe
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Dayann Methalie
Persistent fouling / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Samir El Mourabet → Abdoul Ouattara
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Dayann Methalie
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
27'
Event
Yaya Diémé
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
20'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Gessime Yassine takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mario Sauer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rafael Luis takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aron Donnum receives a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
Ilyas Azizi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Attempt Attempt
Waren Hakon Christofer Kamanzi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
84
Update Update
Goal! Emersonn Correia da Silva scores, making it 1-2.
84
Attempt Attempt
Emersonn Correia da Silva takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
82
Update Update
Mario Sauer comes on for Alexis Vossah.
82
Update Update
Emanuel Emegha comes on for Sebastian Nanasi.
78
Update Update
Waren Hakon Christofer Kamanzi comes on for Dayann Methalie.
78
Update Update
Djibril Sidibe is on, and Santiago Hidalgo is off.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yann Gboho receives a yellow card.
73
Attempt Attempt
Julio Cesar Enciso takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
71
Update Update
Julio Cesar Enciso replaces Yaya Dieme.
71
Update Update
Andrew Omobamidele replaces Ismael Doukoure.
65
Attempt Attempt
Emersonn Correia da Silva takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Attempt Attempt
Emersonn Correia da Silva attempts a header but misses the shot.
63
Update Update
Emersonn Correia da Silva comes on for Jacen Russell-Rowe.
63
Update Update
Diego Moreira comes on for Mathis Amougou.
58
Attempt Attempt
Aron Donnum takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dayann Methalie receives a yellow card.
49
Attempt Attempt
Charlie Cresswell takes a shot with another body part, but it misses the target.
48
Attempt Attempt
Jacen Russell-Rowe takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Samir El Mourabet comes on for Guemissongui Ouattara.
46
Attempt Attempt
Mathis Amougou takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Yann Gboho takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Dayann Methalie scores with a left-footed shot.
33
Attempt Attempt
Cristhian Casseres Jr. takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Yann Gboho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Update Update
Goal! Samuel Amo-Ameyaw scores to make it 1-0.
27
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw scores with a left-footed shot.
26
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Nanasi takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
20
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yaya Dieme receives a yellow card.
15
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Hidalgo's left-footed shot is saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Jacen Russell-Rowe takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
5
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Hidalgo takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Toulouse's 2-1 triumph over Strasbourg exemplifies how efficiency trumps possession in tight contests. Despite 54% ball share and halftime parity at 1-1, the visitors exploited second-half lapses for a deserved upset. As the stronger team on paper, Strasbourg's profligacy cost them dearly, with minimal deviation reinforcing market confidence in the result. Absent xG insights, the focus shifts to Toulouse's superior finishing and composure under pressure. This win boosts their momentum, while Strasbourg must refine chance creation. No disruptions from reds or adjustments highlight pure tactical execution as the decider.

Strasbourg vs Toulouse preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.