Strasbourg vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stade de la Meinau Thu, 7 May - 7:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Strasbourg STR
0 Winner 1
Rayo Vallecano RAY
Full Time Thu, 7 May 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 2
|
Goal
Alexandre Zurawski - 42'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Strasbourg 0–1 Rayo Vallecano. The result saw Rayo Vallecano take the points. Rayo Vallecano showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 49%–51%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rayo Vallecano's win reflected a significant 74.7% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with expectations throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: Result did not align with pre-match market favoring Strasbourg at 48.9%.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No key events or second-half adjustments influenced the scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion to proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Kružliak

Slovakia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Hancko

1st Assistant

Slovakia

J. Pozor

2nd Assistant

Slovakia

N. Walsh

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Europa Conference League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.5
Yellow cards / match 4.82
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.29
Strasbourg G. O'Neil
G. O'Neil
VS
Rayo Vallecano I. Pérez Soto
I. Pérez Soto
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 76 L
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 81 W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 81 L
Rijeka Rank: 71 D
Rijeka Rank: 71 W
Breidablik Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Strasbourg Rank: 79 W
AEK Athens Rank: 76 L
AEK Athens Rank: 79 W
Samsunspor Rank: 74 L
Samsunspor Rank: 74 W
Drita Rank: 59 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Strasbourg
48.92%
Draw
25.8%
Away Rayo Vallecano
25.28%

Movement

Changes since opening
Strasbourg
+48.73%
Draw
+20.15%
Rayo Vallecano
-68.88%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.48
79.02
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Strasbourg
Rayo Vallecano
Power Score
77.48
79.02
League Position
1
5
Global Rank
84
68

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Strasbourg — Opponent-weighted form score
Rayo Vallecano — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Strasbourg Rayo Vallecano

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Strasbourg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rayo Vallecano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Strasbourg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rayo Vallecano
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.53
47.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
47.45
26.53
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Strasbourg -1.71 Efficiency Index
vs
Rayo Vallecano +1.71 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Strasbourg
Rayo Vallecano
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Strasbourg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rayo Vallecano
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Strasbourg Rayo Vallecano
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Strasbourg Rayo Vallecano
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Strasbourg
Rayo Vallecano
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Strasbourg
vs
Rayo Vallecano
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Strasbourg Rayo Vallecano
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Strasbourg 0.28
Rayo Vallecano 0.50
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Strasbourg Rayo Vallecano
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Strasbourg 0.02
Rayo Vallecano 0.00
Strasbourg
Rayo Vallecano
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STR had peak pressure around 96'.
  • RAY started the game with stronger pressure.
STR Pressure RAY Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STR reached the top pressure at 96' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Strasbourg STR Home
1 matches
Rayo Vallecano RAY Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:01:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Penders
Belgium
39 M. Penders
G. Doué
France
22 G. Doué
I. Doukoure
France
6 I. Doukoure
A. Omobamidele
Republic of Ireland
2 A. Omobamidele
B. Chilwell
Substitution
England
3 B. Chilwell
S. El Mourabet
Substitution
France
29 S. El Mourabet
D. da Silva Moreira
Portugal
7 D. da Silva Moreira
V. Barco
Argentina
32 V. Barco
G. Ouattara
France
42 G. Ouattara
M. Godo
England
20 M. Godo
J. Enciso
Paraguay
19 J. Enciso
Pitch
A. Batalla Barga
Argentina
13 A. Batalla Barga
J. Chavarría Pérez
Spain
3 J. Chavarría Pérez
P. Ciss
Senegal
6 P. Ciss
F. Lejeune
France
24 F. Lejeune
A. Ratiu
Romania
2 A. Ratiu
Ó. Martín Luengo
Spain
23 Ó. Martín Luengo
U. López Cabrera
Substitution
Spain
17 U. López Cabrera
L. Espino García
Substitution
Uruguay
22 L. Espino García
I. Palazón Camacho
Substitution
Spain
7 I. Palazón Camacho
J. De Frutos Sebastián
Substitution
Spain
19 J. De Frutos Sebastián
A. Zurawski
Substitution
Brazil
9 A. Zurawski

General Information

Date & Time :
May 07, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe · Semi Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 2
Stadium :
Stade de la Meinau
Capacity :
29200
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ivan Kružliak
Branislav Hancko
Ján Pozor
N. Walsh

Statistics

Possession
STR
48%
RAY
52%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 4
8 Shots 14
40 Dangerous attacks 44
49 Possession 51
5 Corners 6
18 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

67 Ball Safe 74
12 Throwins 12
11 Goal Kicks 10
33 Dribble Attempts 15
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
15 Successful Dribbles 9
9 Goal Attempts 14
2 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 2
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

84 Attacks 107
4 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 84
44 Long Passes 66
365 Successful Passes 374
432 Passes 447
23 Successful Long Passes 34
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
5 Key Passes 14

Defensive

7 Saves 3
13 Tackles 29
12 Interceptions 14

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 22
5 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

7 Fouls 19
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Kružliak

Starting XI ▼

39
Mike Penders
Mike Penders Goalkeeper
7.14
2
Andrew Omobamidele
Andrew Omobamidele Defender
7
3
Ben Chilwell
Ben Chilwell Defender
6.84
11
Sebastian Nanasi
Sebastian Nanasi
Midfielder46'
7.04
6
Ismaël Doukouré
Ismaël Doukouré Defender
6.91
22
Guela Doué
Guela Doué Defender
6.74
7
Diego Moreira
Diego Moreira Midfielder
6.89
20
Martial Godo
Martial Godo Midfielder
7.11
29
Samir El Mourabet
Samir El Mourabet Midfielder
6.94
27
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
Attacker67'
7.02
32
Valentín Barco
Valentín Barco Midfielder
7.2
42
Abdoul Ouattara
Abdoul Ouattara Midfielder
6.91
19
Julio Enciso
Julio Enciso Attacker
7.19
Referee : Ivan Kružliak

Starting XI ▼

13
Augusto Batalla
Augusto Batalla Goalkeeper
6.86
2
Andrei Rațiu
Andrei Rațiu Defender
6.74
3
Pep Chavarría
Pep Chavarría Defender
6.95
6
Pathé Ciss
Pathé Ciss Defender
7
24
Florian Lejeune
Florian Lejeune Defender
7.31
7
Isi Palazón
Isi Palazón Midfielder
7.03
4
Pedro Díaz
Pedro Díaz
Midfielder78'
6.8
17
Unai López
Unai López Midfielder
7.18
15
Gerard Gumbau
Gerard Gumbau
Midfielder86'
7.26
19
Jorge de Frutos
Jorge de Frutos Midfielder
6.88
20
Iván Balliu
Iván Balliu
Defender78'
6.7
22
Alfonso Espino
Alfonso Espino Midfielder
6.9
18
Álvaro García
Álvaro García
Midfielder85'
7.38
23
Óscar Valentín
Óscar Valentín Midfielder
6.83
9
Alexandre Zurawski
Alexandre Zurawski Attacker
6.93
10
Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello
Attacker65'
6.8

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Julio Enciso
GoalkeeperSave
90+4'
88'
Event
Augusto Batalla
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Óscar Valentín
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
86'
Event
Unai López
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Gerard Gumbau → Unai López
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Álvaro García → Alfonso Espino
6th Substitution
Event
Diego Moreira
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
80'
78'
Event
Pedro Díaz → Isi Palazón
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Iván Balliu → Jorge de Frutos
4th Substitution
Event
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw → Samir El Mourabet
3rd Substitution
67'
65'
Event
Sergio Camello → Alexandre Zurawski
2nd Substitution
Event
Sebastian Nanasi → Ben Chilwell
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Alexandre Zurawski
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Ben Chilwell
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Guemissongui Ouattara takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Martial Godo takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Julio Cesar Enciso's attempt is unsuccessful.
90
Attempt Attempt
Julio Cesar Enciso takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ismael Doukoure takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ismael Doukoure takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Augusto Batalla receives a yellow card.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Oscar Valentín receives a yellow card.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Unai Lopez Cabrera receives a yellow card.
86
Update Update
Alvaro Garcia comes on for Alfonso Espino.
85
Update Update
Gerard Gumbau comes on for Unai Lopez Cabrera.
84
Attempt Attempt
Guela Doue takes a right-footed shot but misses.
80
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Diaz Fanjul takes a right-footed shot but misses.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Diego Moreira receives a yellow card.
78
Update Update
Pedro Diaz Fanjul is on, and Isaac Palazon Camacho is off.
78
Update Update
Ivan Balliu Campeny is on, and Jorge de Frutos Sebastian is off.
77
Attempt Attempt
Isaac Palazon Camacho takes a left-footed shot but misses.
75
Attempt Attempt
Ismael Doukoure attempts a header but misses the shot.
73
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Barco's left-footed shot is blocked.
68
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Camello takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
67
Update Update
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw is on, and Samir El Mourabet is off.
65
Update Update
Sergio Camello comes on for Alexandre Zurawski.
60
Attempt Attempt
Samir El Mourabet takes a left-footed shot but misses.
58
Attempt Attempt
Jorge de Frutos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Alexandre Zurawski attempts a header but misses the shot.
52
Attempt Attempt
Jorge de Frutos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Isaac Palazon Camacho takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Diego Moreira attempts a header but misses the shot.
46
Update Update
Sebastian Nanasi replaces Benjamin Chilwell.
43
Attempt Attempt
Guela Doue takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Florian Lejeune takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alexandre Zurawski with his right foot results in a goal.
41
Attempt Attempt
Jorge de Frutos takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Jorge de Frutos takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Alfonso Espino takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Jorge de Frutos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Alexandre Zurawski's right-footed shot is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Pathe Ciss takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
28
Attempt Attempt
Unai Lopez Cabrera takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Benjamin Chilwell.
25
Attempt Attempt
Isaac Palazon Camacho takes a left-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Isaac Palazon Camacho takes a left-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Florian Lejeune takes a right-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Isaac Palazon Camacho takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Jorge de Frutos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Alexandre Zurawski's header is saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Ivan Kruzliak.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rayo Vallecano exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Strasbourg vs Rayo Vallecano preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Europa Conference League, Europe View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ