Strasbourg vs Nice Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade de la Meinau Sat, 4 Apr - 3:00 PM
Ligue 1
Strasbourg STR
3 Winner 1
Nice NCE
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Samir El Mourabet - 42'
Julio Enciso - 36'
Martial Godo - 28'
Goal
|
Goal
Antoine Mendy - 82'

CONTEXT

The match between Strasbourg and Nice has officially finished, with Nice securing a 1-0 away victory. This full-time result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Strasbourg entered the contest as the clear favorites with a 48.4% win probability according to the market, while Nice held only a 25.1% chance of victory alongside a 26.5% probability of a draw. Consequently, Nice's victory meant the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market predictions. Despite falling short on the scoreboard, Strasbourg largely controlled the flow of the game, dominating the ball with 59% possession compared to Nice's 41%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be definitively evaluated whether the final outcome was consistent with the underlying offensive metrics for either side. Both teams experienced an efficiency shift that was completely in line with standard performance expectations, suggesting no extraordinary finishing anomalies. Additionally, the match concluded without any red cards being issued, ensuring that major disciplinary events did not artificially impact the final result. Ultimately, Nice successfully overcame the possession deficit and market odds to pull off a notable upset.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nice showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Léonard

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Berthomieu

1st Assistant

H. Ocak

2nd Assistant

A. Valnet

4th Official

Strasbourg G. O'Neil
G. O'Neil
VS
Nice C. Puel
C. Puel
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nantes Rank: 64 W
Paris Rank: 68 D
Auxerre Rank: 69 D
Lens Rank: 83 D
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 81 W
Olympique Marseille Rank: 82 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 93 L
Angers SCO Rank: 68 W
Rennes Rank: 77 L
Paris Rank: 69 L
Lorient Rank: 74 D
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 81 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 6 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Strasbourg
48.39%
Draw
26.51%
Away Nice
25.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
80.11
69.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Strasbourg
Nice
Power Score
80.11
69.63
League Position
8
15
Global Rank
62
195

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Strasbourg — Opponent-weighted form score
Nice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Strasbourg Nice

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Strasbourg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Strasbourg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nice
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.10
25.24
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.24
31.10
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Strasbourg +0.57 Efficiency Index
vs
Nice -0.57 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Strasbourg
Nice
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Strasbourg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nice
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Strasbourg Nice
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Strasbourg Nice
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Strasbourg
Nice
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Strasbourg
vs
Nice
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Strasbourg Nice
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Strasbourg 0.34
Nice 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Strasbourg Nice
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Strasbourg 0.02
Nice 0.06
Strasbourg
Nice
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Strasbourg STR Home
20 matches
Nice NCE Away
Match Record
6
Wins
8
6
Draws
6
8
Losses
6
Goals
20
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
20
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:04:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Penders
Belgium
39 M. Penders
G. Doué
France
22 G. Doué
A. Omobamidele
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
2 A. Omobamidele
I. Doukoure
France
6 I. Doukoure
B. Chilwell
Substitution
England
3 B. Chilwell
S. El Mourabet
Substitution
France
29 S. El Mourabet
M. Oyedele
Poland
8 M. Oyedele
G. Yassine
France
80 G. Yassine
S. Nanasi
Sweden
11 S. Nanasi
M. Godo
Substitution
England
20 M. Godo
J. Enciso
Substitution
Paraguay
19 J. Enciso
Pitch
Y. Diouf
France
80 Y. Diouf
M. Bard
France
26 M. Bard
A. Juma Bah
Substitution
Sierra Leone
28 A. Juma Bah
A. Mendy
France
33 A. Mendy
J. Clauss
France
92 J. Clauss
H. Boudaoui
Algeria
6 H. Boudaoui
M. Sanson
Substitution
France
8 M. Sanson
S. Diop
Substitution
Morocco
10 S. Diop
I. Jansson
Substitution
Sweden
21 I. Jansson
T. Louchet
France
20 T. Louchet
S. Wahi
Substitution
France
11 S. Wahi

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade de la Meinau
Capacity :
29200
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Thomas Léonard
Aurélien Berthomieu
Huseyin Ocak
Antoine Valnet

Statistics

Possession
STR
57%
NCE
43%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 3
47 Dangerous attacks 47
59 Possession 41
4 Corners 10
15 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 9
1 Hit Woodwork 0
15 Successful Headers 8
2 Assists 1
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
17 Throwins 10
12 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5
9 Successful Dribbles 7
27 Dribble Attempts 15
98 Ball Safe 75

Attacking

86 Attacks 86
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

8 Key Passes 8
40 Long Passes 53
90 Successful Passes Percentage 85
588 Passes 394
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
527 Successful Passes 334
22 Successful Long Passes 26

Defensive

2 Saves 3
4 Interceptions 14
18 Tackles 27
58 Duels Won 49

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 20
6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
7 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Thomas Léonard

Starting XI ▼

39
Mike Penders
Mike Penders Goalkeeper
2
Andrew Omobamidele
Andrew Omobamidele Defender
5
Aarón Anselmino
Aarón Anselmino
Defender77'
3
Ben Chilwell
Ben Chilwell Defender
24
Lucas Høgsberg
Lucas Høgsberg
Defender58'
6
Ismaël Doukouré
Ismaël Doukouré Defender
22
Guela Doué
Guela Doué Defender
8
Maxi Oyedele
Maxi Oyedele Midfielder
11
Sebastian Nanasi
Sebastian Nanasi Midfielder
20
Martial Godo
Martial Godo Midfielder
10
Emmanuel Emegha
Emmanuel Emegha
Attacker77'
29
Samir El Mourabet
Samir El Mourabet Midfielder
32
Valentín Barco
Valentín Barco
Midfielder58'
80
Gessime Yassine
Gessime Yassine Midfielder
19
Julio Enciso
Julio Enciso Attacker
17
Mathis Amougou
Mathis Amougou
Midfielder90+1'
Referee : Thomas Léonard

Starting XI ▼

80
Yehvann Diouf
Yehvann Diouf Goalkeeper
26
Melvin Bard
Melvin Bard Defender
28
Juma Bah
Juma Bah Defender
4
Dante
Dante
Defender46'
33
Antoine Mendy
Antoine Mendy Defender
92
Jonathan Clauss
Jonathan Clauss Defender
6
Hicham Boudaoui
Hicham Boudaoui Midfielder
8
Morgan Sanson
Morgan Sanson Midfielder
2
Ali Abdi
Ali Abdi
Defender64'
10
Sofiane Diop
Sofiane Diop Midfielder
24
Charles Vanhoutte
Charles Vanhoutte
Midfielder46'
20
Tom Louchet
Tom Louchet Midfielder
21
Isak Jansson
Isak Jansson Midfielder
25
Mohamed-Ali Cho
Mohamed-Ali Cho
Attacker46'
11
Elye Wahi
Elye Wahi Attacker
32
Kaïl Boudache
Kaïl Boudache
Attacker80'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mathis Amougou → Julio Enciso
10th Substitution
90+1'
82'
Event
Antoine Mendy
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
80'
Event
Kaïl Boudache → Elye Wahi
9th Substitution
Event
Aarón Anselmino → Andrew Omobamidele
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Emmanuel Emegha → Martial Godo
8th Substitution
77'
64'
Event
Ali Abdi → Morgan Sanson
6th Substitution
Event
Valentín Barco → Samir El Mourabet
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Lucas Høgsberg → Ben Chilwell
5th Substitution
58'
46'
Event
Charles Vanhoutte → Sofiane Diop
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Dante  → Juma Bah
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Mohamed-Ali Cho → Isak Jansson
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Morgan Sanson
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Samir El Mourabet
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
42'
Event
Julio Enciso
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
36'
Event
Martial Godo
Header / 1st Goal
28'

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Strasbourg: Mathis Amougou replaces Julio Enciso.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after Guéla Doué concedes.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Strasbourg leading Nice 3-1.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after Guéla Doué concedes.
89
Attempt Attempt
Ali Abdi's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Charles Vanhoutte.
87
Update Update
Gessime Yassine from Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Jonathan Clauss for Nice.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after Aaron Anselmino concedes.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after Aaron Anselmino concedes.
84
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Gessime Yassine from Strasbourg shot with his left foot from the right side of the box.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Strasbourg wins a corner after Antoine Mendy concedes.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after Aaron Anselmino concedes.
81
Corner Corner
Goal! Antoine Mendy scores for Nice with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the right corner. The score is now Strasbourg 3, Nice 1, with an assist from Dante.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after a concession by Aaron Anselmino.
80
Update Update
Ali Abdi from Nice won a free kick on the left wing.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Guéla Doué of Strasbourg.
79
Update Update
Gessime Yassine from Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nice: Kail Boudache replaces Elye Wahi.
78
Update Update
Emmanuel Emegha from Strasbourg commits a foul.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Ali Abdi of Nice.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Strasbourg: Aaron Anselmino replaces Andrew Omobamidele.
77
Update Update
Dante from Nice won a free kick in defense.
76
Update Update
Guéla Doué from Strasbourg won a free kick on the right wing.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Strasbourg: Emmanuel Emegha replaces Martial Godo.
73
Update Update
Fouled by Ali Abdi of Nice.
70
Update Update
Elye Wahi of Nice is called offside.
70
Update Update
Offside called against Strasbourg. Valentín Barco is offside.
69
Update Update
Elye Wahi from Nice is caught offside.
69
Attempt Attempt
Tom Louchet's shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Mohamed-Ali Cho.
67
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Julio Enciso of Strasbourg heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's saved by Nice's goalkeeper Yehvann Diouf. The assist came from Martial Godo's cross.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nice: Ali Abdi replaces Morgan Sanson.
63
Update Update
Julio Enciso from Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
63
Update Update
Dante from Nice committed a foul.
63
Corner Corner
Elye Wahi from Nice takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Mike Penders of Strasbourg. The assist comes from Charles Vanhoutte.
61
Update Update
Foul committed by Hicham Boudaoui of Nice.
61
Update Update
Gessime Yassine from Strasbourg won a free kick in the attacking area.
61
Attempt Attempt
Gessime Yassine from Strasbourg attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it is saved by Nice's goalkeeper Yehvann Diouf, who is positioned in the center of the goal.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Strasbourg: Lucas Høgsberg replaces Ben Chilwell.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Strasbourg: Valentín Barco replaces Samir El Mourabet.
55
Update Update
Maxi Oyedele fouled a player from Strasbourg.
55
Update Update
Morgan Sanson from Nice won a free kick in the attacking area.
55
Attempt Attempt
Elye Wahi from Nice had a missed chance, firing a left-footed shot from the left side of the box that went high and wide to the left. Melvin Bard provided the assist.
54
Update Update
Ismaël Doukouré from Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
54
Update Update
Ismaël Doukouré of Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Charles Vanhoutte of Nice.
50
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Mohamed-Ali Cho from Nice takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but Mike Penders from Strasbourg saves it in the left corner. The assist was provided by Charles Vanhoutte.
50
Update Update
Samir El Mourabet from Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
49
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Julio Enciso of Strasbourg heads the ball from the center of the box but misses. The assist was provided by Guéla Doué with a cross.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after Ben Chilwell concedes.
45
Update Update
Foul by Sebastian Nanasi of Strasbourg.
45
Update Update
Morgan Sanson from Nice won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Martial Godo of Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Strasbourg leading Nice 3-0.
45
Update Update
Julio Enciso from Strasbourg won a free kick in an attacking position.
45
Update Update
Handball by Juma Bah.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Strasbourg 3, Nice 0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nice: Charles Vanhoutte replaces Sofiane Diop.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nice: Dante replaces Juma Bah.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nice: Mohamed-Ali Cho replaces Isak Jansson.
44
Update Update
Gessime Yassine from Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
44
Update Update
Gessime Yassine of Strasbourg was awarded a free kick in defense.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Morgan Sanson from Nice receives a yellow card.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Strasbourg leads Nice 3-0. Samir El Mourabet scores for Strasbourg with a left-footed shot from outside the box into the top left corner following a corner.
41
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Sebastian Nanasi from Strasbourg shot with his right foot from the center of the box after a fast break.
41
Corner Corner
Strasbourg wins a corner after Juma Bah concedes.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after Andrew Omobamidele concedes.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after being conceded by Andrew Omobamidele.
39
Update Update
Ben Chilwell of Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by Tom Louchet of Nice.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Strasbourg leads 2-0 against Nice. Julio Enciso scores for Strasbourg with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the center of the goal, assisted by Samir El Mourabet after a fast break.
32
Corner Corner
Strasbourg wins a corner after Yehvann Diouf concedes.
32
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Guéla Doué from Strasbourg headed the ball from the right side of the box but missed. The assist came from Julio Enciso, who provided a cross after a corner.
31
Corner Corner
Strasbourg wins a corner after Juma Bah concedes.
31
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Martial Godo from Strasbourg had a right-footed shot from a difficult position on the left that was blocked.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Strasbourg leads 1-0 against Nice. Martial Godo scores for Strasbourg with a header from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Guéla Doué's cross.
27
Corner Corner
Goal! Strasbourg leads 1-0 against Nice. Martial Godo scores for Strasbourg with a header from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Guéla Doué's cross.
27
Update Update
Gessime Yassine of Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
25
Update Update
Fouled by Melvin Bard of Nice.
24
Update Update
Gessime Yassine of Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after Ismaël Doukouré concedes.
20
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Gessime Yassine from Strasbourg shot with his left foot from the center of the box.
19
Update Update
Morgan Sanson from Nice won a free kick in defense.
19
Update Update
Foul committed by Samir El Mourabet of Strasbourg.
17
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Julio Enciso from Strasbourg heads the ball from the center of the box.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after Guéla Doué concedes.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Sebastian Nanasi of Strasbourg.
13
Update Update
Morgan Sanson from Nice won a free kick in defense.
11
Update Update
Gessime Yassine from Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.
11
Update Update
Hicham Boudaoui from Nice won a free kick on the left wing.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Gessime Yassine of Strasbourg.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Sofiane Diop of Nice.
8
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Martial Godo from Strasbourg takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box that is very close to the goal.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Melvin Bard - Nice.
6
Update Update
Gessime Yassine from Strasbourg won a free kick on the right wing.
2
Attempt Attempt
Sofiane Diop's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Hicham Boudaoui provided the assist.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after Guéla Doué concedes.
1
Update Update
Foul committed by Jonathan Clauss - Nice.
1
Update Update
Martial Godo from Strasbourg won a free kick in defense.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Nice exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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