Strasbourg vs Monaco Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade de la Meinau Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Strasbourg STR
5 Winner 4
Monaco ASM
Full Time Sun, 17 May 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Martial Godo - 84', 34'
Sebastian Nanasi - 72', 61'
Diego Moreira - 58'
Goal
|
Goal
Ismaël Doukouré - 55' (Own Goal)
Ansu Fati - 45+2'
Lamine Camara - 42', 10'

CONTEXT

In a captivating league match, Strasbourg defeated Monaco by a score of 5-4 after an incredible second-half performance that turned the tide completely. The visitors had led 3-1 at the break, capitalizing on their 60 percent possession advantage during the first half. However, the home team adjusted effectively after halftime, scoring four unanswered goals to secure the memorable win. Monaco, expected to dominate as the stronger side on paper, found themselves on the losing end despite creating several opportunities throughout the ninety minutes. No red cards were issued during the contest, ensuring a fair and uninterrupted battle without any numerical imbalances affecting the flow. This outcome underscores the importance of adaptability and clinical finishing in high-stakes games where momentum can shift rapidly. Strasbourg's victory came against the pre-match assessments, demonstrating their fighting spirit and resilience under pressure.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Strasbourg exhibited a significant structural deviation by overcoming a halftime deficit to win.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the team's second-half performance adjustments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed as expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was not observed given the unexpected result for the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were not verifiable due to the absence of expected goals metrics.
  • Event impact: Event impact was high as Strasbourg mounted a comeback from a 1-3 halftime score.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion played no role with zero red cards shown to either side.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Bastien

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

H. Zakrani

1st Assistant

France

A. Berthomieu

2nd Assistant

France

T. Bouille

4th Official

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.86
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.28
Strasbourg G. O'Neil
G. O'Neil
VS
Monaco S. Pocognoli
S. Pocognoli
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.62
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brest Rank: 73 W
Angers SCO Rank: 67 D
Toulouse Rank: 73 L
Lorient Rank: 74 W
Rennes Rank: 80 L
Nice Rank: 72 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 L
Metz Rank: 62 W
Toulouse Rank: 72 D
Auxerre Rank: 71 D
Paris Rank: 72 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 4 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Strasbourg
29.17%
Draw
22.54%
Away Monaco
48.29%

Movement

Changes since opening
Strasbourg
-65.55%
Draw
+17.45%
Monaco
+48.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.48
79.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Strasbourg
Monaco
Power Score
77.48
79.33
League Position
8
7
Global Rank
80
65

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Strasbourg — Opponent-weighted form score
Monaco — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Strasbourg Monaco

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Strasbourg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Monaco

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Strasbourg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monaco
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Strasbourg Monaco
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Strasbourg Monaco
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Strasbourg
Monaco
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Strasbourg
vs
Monaco
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Strasbourg Monaco
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Strasbourg 0.00
Monaco 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Strasbourg Monaco
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Strasbourg 0.00
Monaco 0.00
Strasbourg
Monaco
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STR had peak pressure around 70'.
  • ASM started the game with stronger pressure.
STR Pressure ASM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STR reached the top pressure at 70' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Strasbourg STR Home
21 matches
Monaco ASM Away
Match Record
5
Wins
12
4
Draws
4
12
Losses
5
Goals
27
Goals Scored
39
39
Goals Conceded
27
-12
Goal Difference
+12

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T18:45:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Penders
Belgium
39 M. Penders
G. Doué
France
22 G. Doué
A. Omobamidele
Republic of Ireland
2 A. Omobamidele
I. Doukoure
France
6 I. Doukoure
G. Ouattara
France
42 G. Ouattara
V. Barco
Substitution
Argentina
32 V. Barco
S. El Mourabet
France
29 S. El Mourabet
D. da Silva Moreira
Portugal
7 D. da Silva Moreira
S. Nanasi
Substitution
Sweden
11 S. Nanasi
M. Godo
England
20 M. Godo
J. Enciso
Paraguay
19 J. Enciso
Pitch
L. Hradecký
Finland
1 L. Hradecký
C. Mawissa Elebi
France
13 C. Mawissa Elebi
W. Faes
Belgium
25 W. Faes
T. Kehrer
Substitution
Germany
5 T. Kehrer
S. Adingra
Substitution
Ivory Coast
24 S. Adingra
L. Camara
Senegal
15 L. Camara
D. Zakaria Lako Lado
Switzerland
6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
J. Teze
Substitution
Netherlands
4 J. Teze
A. Fati
Spain
31 A. Fati
M. Akliouche
Substitution
France
11 M. Akliouche
F. Balogun
Substitution
England
9 F. Balogun

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade de la Meinau
Capacity :
29200
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Benoît Bastien
Hicham Zakrani
Aurélien Berthomieu
Thierry Bouille

Statistics

Possession
STR
42%
ASM
58%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 4
4 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 5
39 Dangerous attacks 49
40 Possession 60
4 Corners 6
11 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

8 Throwins 12
23 Dribble Attempts 16
4 Goal Kicks 7
61 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
9 Successful Headers 5
14 Successful Dribbles 10
2 Substitutions 5
5 Assists 2
0 Hit Woodwork 2
60 Ball Safe 72
0 Injuries 1
11 Goal Attempts 11

Attacking

52 Attacks 107
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

319 Successful Passes 488
383 Passes 566
36 Long Passes 55
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
14 Key Passes 17
15 Successful Long Passes 31
83 Successful Passes Percentage 86

Defensive

46 Duels Won 35
9 Interceptions 8
12 Tackles 13
6 Saves 2

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 17
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
7 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Benoît Bastien

Starting XI ▼

39
Mike Penders
Mike Penders Goalkeeper
6.98
2
Andrew Omobamidele
Andrew Omobamidele Defender
6.69
6
Ismaël Doukouré
Ismaël Doukouré Defender
6.69
22
Guela Doué
Guela Doué Defender
7.06
42
Abdoul Ouattara
Abdoul Ouattara Defender
6.73
7
Diego Moreira
Diego Moreira Midfielder
7
11
Sebastian Nanasi
Sebastian Nanasi Midfielder
2
6.9
24
Lucas Høgsberg
Lucas Høgsberg
Defender90+1'
6.66
20
Martial Godo
Martial Godo Midfielder
2
6.92
29
Samir El Mourabet
Samir El Mourabet Midfielder
6.95
32
Valentín Barco
Valentín Barco Midfielder
7.31
28
Tyrese Noubissie
Tyrese Noubissie
Midfielder59'
6.65
19
Julio Enciso
Julio Enciso Attacker
6.94
Referee : Benoît Bastien

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Hradecky
Lukas Hradecky Goalkeeper
6.74
5
Thilo Kehrer
Thilo Kehrer Defender
6.91
23
Aladji Bamba
Aladji Bamba
Midfielder21'
6.78
13
Christian Mawissa
Christian Mawissa Defender
6.69
25
Wout Faes
Wout Faes Defender
6.74
4
J. Teze
J. Teze Midfielder
6.9
49
Ilane Touré
Ilane Touré
Midfielder67'
6.4
6
Denis Zakaria
Denis Zakaria Midfielder
6.88
15
Lamine Camara
Lamine Camara Midfielder
2
7.18
24
Simon Adingra
Simon Adingra Midfielder
6.74
29
Paris Brunner
Paris Brunner
Attacker76'
6.44
9
Folarin Balogun
Folarin Balogun Attacker
6.96
14
Mika Biereth
Mika Biereth
Attacker76'
6.61
11
Maghnes Akliouche
Maghnes Akliouche Attacker
7.1
28
Mamadou Coulibaly
Mamadou Coulibaly
Midfielder67'
6.78
31
Ansu Fati
Ansu Fati Attacker
6.87

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Lucas Høgsberg → Sebastian Nanasi
7th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Martial Godo
Right foot shot / 8th Goal
84'
76'
Event
Mika Biereth → Folarin Balogun
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Paris Brunner → Simon Adingra
6th Substitution
Event
Sebastian Nanasi
Right foot shot / 7th Goal
72'
Event
Tyrese Noubissie
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
69'
67'
Event
Ilane Touré → J. Teze
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Mamadou Coulibaly → Maghnes Akliouche
3rd Substitution
Event
Sebastian Nanasi
Left foot shot / 6th Goal
61'
Event
Tyrese Noubissie → Valentín Barco
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Diego Moreira
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
58'
56'
Event
Folarin Balogun
Goal awarded
55'
Event
Ismaël Doukouré
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
51'
Event
Lamine Camara
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Ansu Fati
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
42'
Event
Lamine Camara
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Martial Godo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
34'
31'
Event
Christian Mawissa
Persistent fouling / 1st Yellowcard
21'
Event
Aladji Bamba → Thilo Kehrer
1st Substitution
13'
Event
Maghnes Akliouche
Penalty cancelled
10'
Event
Lamine Camara
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Camara's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Update Update
Lucas Hogsberg is on, and Sebastian Nanasi is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Anssumane Fati Vieira takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Paris Brunner takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Paris Brunner takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Camara takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Martial Godo with his right foot results in a goal.
80
Attempt Attempt
Julio Cesar Enciso takes a left-footed shot but misses.
78
Attempt Attempt
Aladji Bamba has a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
78
Attempt Attempt
Mamadou Coulibaly takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
76
Update Update
Paris Brunner replaces Simon Adingra.
76
Update Update
Mika Bierith replaces Folarin Balogun.
75
Attempt Attempt
Folarin Balogun takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Nanasi takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sebastian Nanasi scores, bringing the match to 4-4.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tyrese Noubissie receives a yellow card.
67
Update Update
Mamadou Coulibaly comes on for Maghnes Akliouche.
67
Update Update
Ilane Toure comes on for Folarin Balogun.
64
Attempt Attempt
Andrew Omobamidele takes a shot with his head, but it is saved.
64
Attempt Attempt
Andrew Omobamidele takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
61
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Nanasi takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sebastian Nanasi scores, making it 3-4.
60
Attempt Attempt
Martial Godo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
59
Update Update
Tyrese Noubissie is on, and Valentin Barco is off.
58
Attempt Attempt
Diego Moreira scores with a left-footed shot.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal! Ismael Doukoure scores, making it 1-4.
56
Update Update
VAR decision confirms the goal for Folarin Balogun.
55
Attempt Attempt
Folarin Balogun takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Anssumane Fati Vieira takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lamine Camara receives a yellow card.
49
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Nanasi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Samir El Mourabet takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Diego Moreira's left-footed shot is blocked.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Anssumane Fati Vieira scores, making it 1-3.
45
Attempt Attempt
Anssumane Fati Vieira takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
45
Attempt Attempt
Christian Mawissa Elebi takes a right-footed shot, but it hits the post.
42
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Camara scores with a right-footed shot.
34
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Martial Godo with his right foot finds the back of the net.
34
Attempt Attempt
Folarin Balogun takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Simon Adingra's header is saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Anssumane Fati Vieira takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Christian Mawissa Elebi receives a yellow card.
29
Attempt Attempt
Diego Moreira takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Diego Moreira takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
21
Update Update
Aladji Bamba replaces Thilo Kehrer.
17
Attempt Attempt
Folarin Balogun takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Folarin Balogun takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Simon Adingra's right-footed shot is blocked.
13
Update Update
The VAR decision confirms that no penalty is awarded for Maghnes Akliouche.
10
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Camara scores with a right-footed shot.
8
Attempt Attempt
Julio Cesar Enciso's right-footed shot is blocked.
2
Attempt Attempt
Denis Lemi Zakaria Lako Lado takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Strasbourg 5-4 Monaco. Structural assessment: Strasbourg exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Strasbourg vs Monaco preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.