Stoke City vs Portsmouth Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Bet365 Stadium Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Stoke City STK
1 Winner 3
Portsmouth PTM
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 45 Regular Season
Lamine Cissé - 48'
Goal
|
Goal
Adrian Segecic - 82', 66', 32'

CONTEXT

Stoke City fell to a 1-3 defeat against Portsmouth at home, with the visitors taking control after a 0-1 halftime lead. Portsmouth, deemed the stronger side pre-match, capitalized on their slight 52% possession edge to secure a comfortable victory. Stoke managed 48% of the ball but struggled to convert chances, trailing from the first half and unable to mount a significant comeback. No red cards disrupted play, allowing the game to flow naturally without major interruptions. The final score reflected Portsmouth's dominance, as they extended their lead in the second half through clinical finishing. This result underscores Portsmouth's tactical superiority on the day, maintaining pressure throughout while Stoke's defense faltered under sustained attacks. The minimal adjustments needed highlight a straightforward execution of game plans by the winners.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Portsmouth's win featured minimal structural deviation of 2.1%.
  • Efficiency shift: Teams performed in line with efficiency expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No key events significantly influenced the match outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards resulted in no scoreline distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Webb

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Williams

1st Assistant

D. Leach

2nd Assistant

M. Woods

4th Official

Stoke City M. Robins
M. Robins
VS
Portsmouth J. Mousinho
J. Mousinho
1.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Millwall Rank: L
Wrexham Rank: L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: D
Derby County Rank: L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Preston North End Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Coventry City Rank: L
Leicester City Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: W
Middlesbrough Rank: W
Oxford United Rank: D
Norwich City Rank: D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Stoke City
0.22%
Draw
1.92%
Away Portsmouth
97.86%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
12.81
27.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Stoke City
Portsmouth
Power Score
12.81
27.69
League Position
17
18
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Stoke City Opponent-weighted form score
Portsmouth Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Stoke City Portsmouth

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Stoke City

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Portsmouth

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Stoke City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Portsmouth
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.77
18.27
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.27
31.77
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Stoke City +1.38 Efficiency Index
vs
Portsmouth -1.38 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Stoke City
Portsmouth
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Stoke City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Portsmouth
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Stoke City Portsmouth
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Stoke City Portsmouth
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Stoke City
Portsmouth
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Stoke City
vs
Portsmouth
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Stoke City Portsmouth
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Stoke City Portsmouth
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Stoke City
Portsmouth
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STK had peak pressure around 50'.
  • STK started the game with stronger pressure.
STK Pressure PTM Pressure
Pressure Index: STK reached the top pressure at 50' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Stoke City STK Home
9 matches
Portsmouth PTM Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
5
Goals
17
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
17
+4
Goal Difference
-4

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:04:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
T. Simkim
England
25 T. Simkim
S. Agina
Substitution
England
50 S. Agina
A. Phillips
England
26 A. Phillips
R. Otegbayo
Substitution
54 R. Otegbayo
E. Bocat
Substitution
France
17 E. Bocat
B. Pearson
Substitution
England
4 B. Pearson
T. Seko
Japan
12 T. Seko
L. Cisse
France
29 L. Cisse
S. Gallagher
Substitution
England
20 S. Gallagher
S. Thomas
Wales
7 S. Thomas
R. Boženík
Slovakia
11 R. Boženík
Pitch
J. Bursik
Substitution
England
26 J. Bursik
C. Ogilvie
England
3 C. Ogilvie
M. Dia
Senegal
55 M. Dia
H. Matthews
Substitution
Australia
14 H. Matthews
J. Williams
England
2 J. Williams
L. Le Roux
South Africa
16 L. Le Roux
A. Dozzell
England
21 A. Dozzell
H. Blair
Substitution
England
29 H. Blair
J. Swift
Substitution
England
8 J. Swift
A. Segečić
Australia
10 A. Segečić
C. Bishop
Substitution
England
9 C. Bishop

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 45 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Bet365 Stadium
Capacity :
30089
Attendance :
24894
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
David Webb
Darren Williams
Daniel Leach
Martin Woods

Statistics

Possession
STK
51%
PTM
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 1
45 Dangerous attacks 30
48 Possession 52
8 Corners 1
13 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 7
5 Substitutions 5
30 Throwins 21
18 Successful Headers 21
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
16 Dribble Attempts 12
6 Successful Dribbles 4
71 Ball Safe 66
6 Goal Attempts 7
1 Assists 2

Attacking

96 Attacks 75
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

70 Successful Passes Percentage 78
69 Long Passes 50
21 Successful Long Passes 8
321 Passes 360
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 16
226 Successful Passes 281
10 Key Passes 6

Defensive

13 Tackles 15
50 Duels Won 49
11 Interceptions 11
1 Saves 2

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 15
8 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

9 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : David Webb

Starting XI

25
Tommy Simkin
Tommy Simkin Goalkeeper
6.57
17
Eric-Junior Bocat
Eric-Junior Bocat Defender
6.68
23
Ben Gibson
Ben Gibson
Defender46'
6.83
26
Ashley Phillips
Ashley Phillips Defender
6.8
50
Syd Agina
Syd Agina Defender
6.24
22
Junior Tchamadeu
Junior Tchamadeu
Defender63'
6.84
54
Raphael Otegbayo
Raphael Otegbayo Defender
5.96
42
Million Manhoef
Million Manhoef
Attacker79'
6.75
4
Ben Pearson
Ben Pearson Midfielder
6.62
15
Steven​ N'Zonzi
Steven​ N'Zonzi
Midfielder71'
6.71
7
Sorba Thomas
Sorba Thomas Midfielder
6.97
12
Tatsuki Seko
Tatsuki Seko Midfielder
6.68
20
Sam Gallagher
Sam Gallagher Midfielder
6.8
21
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Attacker46'
6.78
29
Lamine Cissé
Lamine Cissé Midfielder
6.79
11
Róbert Boženík
Róbert Boženík Attacker
6.62
Referee : David Webb

Starting XI

26
Josef Bursik
Josef Bursik Goalkeeper
6.62
30
Ben Killip
Ben Killip
Goalkeeper4'
7.2
2
Jordan Williams
Jordan Williams Defender
6.56
3
Connor Ogilvie
Connor Ogilvie Defender
6.61
14
Hayden Matthews
Hayden Matthews Defender
6.57
17
Ibane Bowat
Ibane Bowat
Defender61'
6.69
55
Madiodio Dia
Madiodio Dia Defender
6.7
8
John Swift
John Swift Midfielder
6.79
40
Jacob Brown
Jacob Brown
Attacker78'
6.54
10
Adrian Segecic
Adrian Segecic Midfielder
3
6.74
16
Luke Le Roux
Luke Le Roux Midfielder
6.56
21
Andre Dozzell
Andre Dozzell Midfielder
6.76
29
Harvey Blair
Harvey Blair Midfielder
6.44
23
Josh Murphy
Josh Murphy
Midfielder62'
6.93
9
Colby Bishop
Colby Bishop Attacker
6.7
20
Thomas Waddingham
Thomas Waddingham
Attacker79'
6.48

Events

2ND-HALF
82'
Event
Adrian Segecic
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
82'
Event
Adrian Segecic
2nd Yellowcard
Event
Million Manhoef Raphael Otegbayo
9th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Thomas Waddingham Colby Bishop
10th Substitution
78'
Event
Jacob Brown John Swift
8th Substitution
Event
Steven​ N'Zonzi Ben Pearson
7th Substitution
71'
66'
Event
Adrian Segecic
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Junior Tchamadeu Syd Agina
6th Substitution
63'
62'
Event
Josh Murphy Harvey Blair
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Ibane Bowat Hayden Matthews
4th Substitution
60'
Event
3rd Yellowcard
60'
Event
Hayden Matthews
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Lamine Cissé
Header / 2nd Goal
48'
Event
Ben Gibson Eric-Junior Bocat
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi Sam Gallagher
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Adrian Segecic
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
4'
Event
Ben Killip Josef Bursik
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Steven Nzonzi from Stoke City, who took a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Josh Murphy from Portsmouth takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it goes wide to the right.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Stoke City losing 1-3 to Portsmouth.
89
Corner Corner
Stoke City win a corner after Ibane Bowat concedes.
88
Update Update
Million Manhoef of Stoke City wins a free kick on the right wing.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Josh Murphy of Portsmouth.
87
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Adrian Segecic of Portsmouth.
86
Update Update
Foul by Róbert Bozeník of Stoke City.
85
Update Update
Madiodio Dia from Portsmouth wins a free kick in the defensive half.
84
Update Update
Foul by Jacob Brown for Portsmouth.
84
Update Update
Sorba Thomas from Stoke City wins a free kick on the left wing.
84
Update Update
Róbert Bozeník commits a handball for Stoke City.
83
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Junior Tchamadeu from Stoke City takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the box that goes close but misses to the right. He was assisted by Steven Nzonzi.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adrian Segecic of Portsmouth receives a yellow card for excessive celebration.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Portsmouth leads 3-1 with Adrian Segecic scoring from outside the box with a left-footed shot into the bottom right corner.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Thomas Waddingham comes on for Colby Bishop.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Million Manhoef comes on for Raphael-Pijus Otegbayo due to an injury.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Jacob Brown comes on for John Swift.
76
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Raphael-Pijus Otegbayo of Stoke City.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Steven Nzonzi comes on for Ben Pearson.
70
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Williams from Portsmouth misses a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box, sending it to the left. The assist came from Adrian Segecic.
69
Update Update
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi from Stoke City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Connor Ogilvie of Portsmouth.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Portsmouth lead 2-1 as Adrian Segecic scores with a left-footed shot from close range into the bottom right corner, assisted by Josh Murphy's cross.
64
Update Update
Foul committed by Ben Gibson of Stoke City.
64
Update Update
Andre Dozzell from Portsmouth wins a free kick in the defensive half.
63
Update Update
Adrian Segecic from Portsmouth misses a header from the right side of the six-yard box, just to the right. The chance was set up by a cross from Josh Murphy.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Junior Tchamadeu comes on for Syd Agina.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Josh Murphy comes on for Harvey Blair.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Ibane Bowat comes on for Hayden Matthews.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hayden Matthews from Portsmouth receives a yellow card for a foul.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Hayden Matthews of Portsmouth.
60
Update Update
Tatsuki Seko from Stoke City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
59
Update Update
Sorba Thomas from Stoke City wins a free kick on the left wing.
59
Update Update
Foul committed by Jordan Williams of Portsmouth.
56
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Segecic's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Jordan Williams provided the assist.
55
Update Update
Adrian Segecic from Portsmouth wins a free kick in the defensive half.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Ben Gibson of Stoke City.
54
Update Update
Lamine Cissé of Stoke City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Luke Le Roux of Portsmouth.
53
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Cissé of Stoke City has a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked.
52
Corner Corner
Stoke City wins a corner after Madiodio Dia concedes.
51
Update Update
Tatsuki Seko wins a free kick for Stoke City in the defensive half.
51
Update Update
Foul by Andre Dozzell for Portsmouth.
50
Corner Corner
Portsmouth win a corner after Ashley Phillips concedes.
49
Update Update
Foul committed by John Swift of Portsmouth.
49
Update Update
Tatsuki Seko from Stoke City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
49
Update Update
Tatsuki Seko from Stoke City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now 1-1 between Stoke City and Portsmouth. Lamine Cissé scores for Stoke City with a header from close range into the bottom right corner, assisted by Sorba Thomas's cross after a corner.
47
Corner Corner
Stoke City wins a corner after Luke Le Roux concedes.
46
Corner Corner
Harvey Blair's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Tommy Simkin. The attempt was assisted by Andre Dozzell.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Stoke City 0, Portsmouth 1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Jesurun Rak-Sakyi comes on for Sam Gallagher.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Róbert Bozeník from Stoke City has a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the bottom left corner by Ben Killip from Portsmouth. The assist was provided by Sam Gallagher.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Ben Gibson comes on for Eric-Junior Bocat.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Stoke City trailing Portsmouth 1-0.
42
Update Update
Ashley Phillips' header from the right side of the six-yard box is blocked.
42
Corner Corner
Lamine Cissé's header from the right side of the six-yard box is saved in the bottom right corner by Ben Killip. The attempt was assisted by Sorba Thomas with a cross.
42
Update Update
Lamine Cissé from Stoke City misses a close-range header to the left, assisted by Ashley Phillips.
41
Corner Corner
Stoke City wins a corner after Ben Killip concedes.
41
Corner Corner
Stoke City wins a corner after John Swift concedes.
41
Update Update
Ben Pearson's header from the left side of the six-yard box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Sorba Thomas with a cross.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Colby Bishop of Portsmouth.
38
Update Update
Raphael-Pijus Otegbayo from Stoke City wins a free kick on the left wing.
36
Update Update
Tatsuki Seko from Stoke City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by John Swift for Portsmouth.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Ashley Phillips of Stoke City.
35
Update Update
Colby Bishop from Portsmouth wins a free kick in the defensive half.
34
Attempt Attempt
Sam Gallagher's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Lamine Cissé provided the assist with a headed pass.
34
Corner Corner
Stoke City wins a corner after Madiodio Dia concedes.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Portsmouth takes the lead 1-0 with Adrian Segecic scoring a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the top right corner, assisted by Harvey Blair.
30
Update Update
Harvey Blair from Portsmouth wins a free kick in the attacking half.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Tatsuki Seko of Stoke City.
29
Update Update
Luke Le Roux from Portsmouth wins a free kick in the defensive half.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Lamine Cissé of Stoke City.
27
Update Update
Lamine Cissé of Stoke City is caught offside.
24
Corner Corner
Tatsuki Seko from Stoke City misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the left. Sorba Thomas provided the assist with a cross after a corner.
23
Attempt Attempt
Tatsuki Seko's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Róbert Bozeník's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
23
Corner Corner
Stoke City wins a corner after Madiodio Dia concedes.
21
Update Update
Hayden Matthews from Portsmouth wins a free kick in the defensive half.
21
Update Update
Foul committed by Róbert Bozeník of Stoke City.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Róbert Bozeník of Stoke City.
18
Update Update
Andre Dozzell from Portsmouth wins a free kick in the defensive half.
16
Corner Corner
Stoke City wins a corner after Harvey Blair concedes.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Connor Ogilvie of Portsmouth.
15
Update Update
Sam Gallagher from Stoke City wins a free kick on the right wing.
12
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Róbert Bozeník from Stoke City.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Madiodio Dia of Portsmouth.
9
Update Update
Róbert Bozeník from Stoke City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
8
Update Update
Tatsuki Seko of Stoke City is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
5
Corner Corner
Portsmouth win a corner after Syd Agina concedes.
4
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Ben Killip comes on for Josef Bursik due to an injury.
3
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Josef Bursik from Portsmouth.

CONCLUSION

Portsmouth's 1-3 triumph over Stoke City validates their status as the stronger outfit, delivering a composed performance from a narrow halftime advantage. With balanced possession and no disciplinary issues, the visitors showcased superior execution, pulling away decisively post-interval. Stoke's inability to equalize exposed vulnerabilities that Portsmouth exploited ruthlessly. This victory reinforces Portsmouth's form, setting a positive trajectory, while Stoke must address defensive lapses to rebound. Overall, the match unfolded predictably for the favored side, emphasizing clinical play over mere control.

Stoke City vs Portsmouth preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.