Stoke City vs Blackburn Rovers Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Bet365 Stadium Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Stoke City STK
1 – 1
Blackburn Rovers BBR
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 42 Regular Season
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi - 56'
Goal
|
Goal
Adam Forshaw - 21'
Ashley Phillips 87' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Stoke City 1–0 Blackburn Rovers. The result saw Stoke City take the points. Stoke City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 59%–41%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Stoke City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Madley

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Williams

1st Assistant

M. McGrath

2nd Assistant

A. Humphries

4th Official

Stoke City M. Robins
M. Robins
VS
Blackburn Rovers M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
1.22
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.21
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Derby County Rank: L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Preston North End Rank: L
Watford Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: D
Swansea City Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Bromwich Albion Rank: D
Birmingham City Rank: W
Middlesbrough Rank: D
Millwall Rank: W
Oxford United Rank: L
Portsmouth Rank: D
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 4 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Stoke City
3.24%
Draw
91.23%
Away Blackburn Rovers
5.53%

Movement

Changes since opening
Stoke City
-0.86%
Draw
+3.18%
Blackburn Rovers
-2.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.28
23.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Stoke City
Blackburn Rovers
Power Score
18.28
23.44
League Position
15
19
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Stoke City — Opponent-weighted form score
Blackburn Rovers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Stoke City Blackburn Rovers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Stoke City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Blackburn Rovers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Stoke City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Blackburn Rovers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.27
32.32
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.32
21.27
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Stoke City -1.13 Efficiency Index
vs
Blackburn Rovers +1.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Stoke City
Blackburn Rovers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Stoke City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Blackburn Rovers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Stoke City Blackburn Rovers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Stoke City Blackburn Rovers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Stoke City
Blackburn Rovers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Stoke City
vs
Blackburn Rovers
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Stoke City Blackburn Rovers
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Stoke City 0.20
Blackburn Rovers 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Stoke City Blackburn Rovers
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Stoke City 0.02
Blackburn Rovers 0.02
Stoke City
Blackburn Rovers
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STK had peak pressure around 11'.
  • BBR started the game with stronger pressure.
STK Pressure BBR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STK reached the top pressure at 11' (65.14).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 24 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Stoke City STK Home
24 matches
Blackburn Rovers BBR Away
Match Record
13
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
13
Goals
29
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
29
+4
Goal Difference
-4

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:07:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
G. Bazunu
Republic of Ireland
31 G. Bazunu
M. Bosun Lawal
Nigeria
18 M. Bosun Lawal
A. Phillips
England
26 A. Phillips
B. Gibson
Substitution
England
23 B. Gibson
E. Bocat
France
17 E. Bocat
B. Pearson
England
4 B. Pearson
L. Baker
England
8 L. Baker
J. Rak-Sakyi
Substitution
England
21 J. Rak-Sakyi
M. Manhoef
Netherlands
42 M. Manhoef
S. Thomas
Wales
7 S. Thomas
S. Gallagher
Substitution
England
20 S. Gallagher
Pitch
B. Tóth
Hungary
22 B. Tóth
E. Cashin
Republic of Ireland
20 E. Cashin
S. McLoughlin
Republic of Ireland
15 S. McLoughlin
T. Atcheson
England
38 T. Atcheson
Y. Oliveira Ribeiro
Substitution
Portugal
4 Y. Oliveira Ribeiro
M. Baradji
Substitution
France
24 M. Baradji
A. Forshaw
Substitution
England
28 A. Forshaw
R. Alebiousu
Nigeria
2 R. Alebiousu
T. Cantwell
Substitution
England
10 T. Cantwell
R. Morishita
Substitution
Japan
25 R. Morishita
Y. Ohashi
Japan
23 Y. Ohashi

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 11, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 42 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Bet365 Stadium
Capacity :
30089
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Robert Madley
Darren Williams
Matt McGrath
Andrew Humphries

Statistics

Possession
STK
56%
BBR
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
10 Shots 11
51 Dangerous attacks 45
59 Possession 41
4 Corners 3
8 Free kicks 11
5 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

21 Throwins 21
28 Dribble Attempts 7
1 Assists 1
7 Goal Kicks 8
17 Successful Headers 15
1 Injuries 0
8 Goal Attempts 7
3 Substitutions 5
13 Successful Dribbles 5
62 Ball Safe 71
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 1
105 Attacks 90

Possession

400 Successful Passes 230
84 Successful Passes Percentage 71
479 Passes 324
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 25
42 Long Passes 51
15 Successful Long Passes 13
9 Key Passes 7

Defensive

10 Tackles 21
7 Interceptions 9
2 Saves 1

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 20
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

11 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Robert Madley

Starting XI ▼

31
Gavin Bazunu
Gavin Bazunu Goalkeeper
17
Eric-Junior Bocat
Eric-Junior Bocat Defender
18
Bosun Lawal
Bosun Lawal Defender
23
Ben Gibson
Ben Gibson Defender
3
Aaron Cresswell
Aaron Cresswell
Defender24'
26
Ashley Phillips
Ashley Phillips Defender
4
Ben Pearson
Ben Pearson Midfielder
7
Sorba Thomas
Sorba Thomas Midfielder
8
Lewis Baker
Lewis Baker Midfielder
21
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi Midfielder
10
Jun-ho Bae
Jun-ho Bae
Midfielder86'
42
Million Manhoef
Million Manhoef Midfielder
20
Sam Gallagher
Sam Gallagher Attacker
29
Lamine Cissé
Lamine Cissé
Attacker72'
Referee : Robert Madley

Starting XI ▼

22
Balázs Tóth
Balázs Tóth Goalkeeper
15
Sean McLoughlin
Sean McLoughlin Defender
20
Eiran Cashin
Eiran Cashin Defender
38
Tom Atcheson
Tom Atcheson Defender
2
Ryan Alebiosu
Ryan Alebiosu Midfielder
4
Yuri Ribeiro
Yuri Ribeiro Midfielder
27
Nathan Redmond
Nathan Redmond
Midfielder90'
24
Moussa Baradji
Moussa Baradji Midfielder
5
Taylor Gardner-Hickman
Taylor Gardner-Hickman
Midfielder63'
28
Adam Forshaw
Adam Forshaw Midfielder
31
Kristi Montgomery
Kristi Montgomery
Midfielder77'
10
Todd Cantwell
Todd Cantwell Attacker
29
Mathias Jørgensen
Mathias Jørgensen
Attacker77'
23
Yuki Ohashi
Yuki Ohashi Attacker
25
Ryoya Morishita
Ryoya Morishita Attacker
14
Dion De Neve
Dion De Neve
Defender89'

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Nathan Redmond → Yuri Ribeiro
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Dion De Neve → Ryoya Morishita
7th Substitution
Event
Lewis Baker
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Ben Pearson
Handball / 7th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Ashley Phillips
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
87'
Event
Jun-ho Bae → Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
6th Substitution
86'
77'
Event
Mathias Jørgensen → Todd Cantwell
4th Substitution
77'
Event
Kristi Montgomery → Adam Forshaw
5th Substitution
Event
Lamine Cissé → Sam Gallagher
3rd Substitution
72'
63'
Event
Taylor Gardner-Hickman → Moussa Baradji
2nd Substitution
Event
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
62'
Event
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
56'
Event
Ashley Phillips
Off the ball foul / 4th Yellowcard
47'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Ryan Alebiosu
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
33'
Event
Yuki Ohashi
Simulation / 2nd Yellowcard
31'
Event
Moussa Baradji
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Aaron Cresswell → Ben Gibson
1st Substitution
24'
21'
Event
Adam Forshaw
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Nathan Redmond replaces Yuri Ribeiro.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Bosun Lawal of Stoke City won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Dion De Neve fouled a Blackburn Rovers player.
90
Corner Corner
Eiran Cashin from Blackburn Rovers attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Gavin Bazunu of Stoke City. The assist came from Taylor Gardner-Hickman.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 1-1 between Stoke City and Blackburn Rovers.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Dion De Neve replaces Ryoya Morishita.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ben Pearson from Stoke City receives a yellow card for handball.
88
Attempt Attempt
Tom Atcheson's shot for Blackburn Rovers from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Sean McLoughlin, who headed the ball.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lewis Baker of Stoke City receives a yellow card for a foul.
88
Update Update
Handball by Ben Pearson for Stoke City.
87
Update Update
Yuki Ohashi from Blackburn Rovers won a free kick on the left wing.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ashley Phillips from Stoke City receives a second yellow card for a foul.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Ashley Phillips of Stoke City.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Bae Jun-Ho replaces Jesurun Rak-Sakyi.
83
Corner Corner
Lamine Cissé of Stoke City attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but Balázs Tóth of Blackburn Rovers saves it in the right corner. The assist was provided by Bosun Lawal.
82
Corner Corner
Stoke City win a corner after Eiran Cashin concedes.
81
Corner Corner
Stoke City win a corner after Sean McLoughlin concedes.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Ben Pearson for Stoke City.
79
Update Update
Ryoya Morishita of Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in defense.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Mathias Jørgensen replaces Todd Cantwell.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Kristi Montgomery replaces Adam Forshaw.
74
Update Update
Lamine Cissé fouled a player from Stoke City.
74
Update Update
Sean McLoughlin from Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in defense.
73
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Baker from Stoke City had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, just missing the goal. Jesurun Rak-Sakyi provided the assist.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Lamine Cissé replaces Sam Gallagher.
71
Update Update
Todd Cantwell of Blackburn Rovers heads the ball from the center of the box, but it goes high and wide to the right.
68
Update Update
Foul committed by Yuki Ohashi of Blackburn Rovers.
68
Update Update
Aaron Cresswell of Stoke City won a free kick in defense.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Taylor Gardner-Hickman replaces Moussa Baradji.
62
Update Update
Adam Forshaw of Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in defense.
62
Update Update
Fouled by Jesurun Rak-Sakyi - Stoke City
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi of Stoke City receives a yellow card for a foul.
62
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Moussa Baradji of Blackburn Rovers takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved in the top center of the goal by Gavin Bazunu of Stoke City. The assist comes from Todd Cantwell.
60
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Jesurun Rak-Sakyi from Stoke City shoots with his left foot from the right side of the box.
59
Update Update
Moussa Baradji of Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in defense.
59
Update Update
Foul committed by Sam Gallagher of Stoke City.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after a concession by Bosun Lawal.
58
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Todd Cantwell from Blackburn Rovers had a right-footed shot from outside the box that was blocked.
57
Update Update
Todd Cantwell of Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in an attacking position.
57
Update Update
Foul by Ben Pearson for Stoke City.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jesurun Rak-Sakyi scores for Stoke City with a right-footed shot from a few meters to the center of the goal, assisted by Million Manhoef. The match is now 1-1.
53
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Sorba Thomas from Stoke City.
52
Update Update
Offside called against Blackburn Rovers. Todd Cantwell is offside.
50
Attempt Attempt
Adam Forshaw's shot from outside the box is blocked.
49
Update Update
Ryoya Morishita of Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in an attacking position.
49
Update Update
Foul committed by Ben Pearson for Stoke City.
47
Update Update
Foul by Ashley Phillips of Stoke City.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ashley Phillips from Stoke City receives a yellow card.
47
Update Update
Yuki Ohashi from Blackburn Rovers won a free kick on the left wing.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Stoke City 0, Blackburn Rovers 1.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ryan Alebiosu of Blackburn Rovers receives a yellow card for a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with Stoke City trailing Blackburn Rovers 1-0.
45
Update Update
Eric-Junior Bocat of Stoke City won a free kick in the attacking area.
45
Corner Corner
Blackburn Rovers win a corner after Eric-Junior Bocat concedes.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Alebiosu of Blackburn Rovers.
42
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Baker's shot from the center of the box is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Yuki Ohashi from Blackburn Rovers missed a header from the center of the box, sending the ball to the left. The assist came from Ryan Alebiosu's cross.
39
Corner Corner
Stoke City wins a corner after Eiran Cashin concedes.
39
Attempt Attempt
Eric-Junior Bocat's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Sam Gallagher.
35
Update Update
Foul by Bosun Lawal of Stoke City.
35
Update Update
Todd Cantwell of Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in defense.
34
Update Update
Offside called against Stoke City. Jesurun Rak-Sakyi is offside.
33
Update Update
Yuki Ohashi from Blackburn Rovers has gone down, but the referee considers it simulation.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yuki Ohashi from Blackburn Rovers receives a yellow card.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Moussa Baradji of Blackburn Rovers receives a yellow card for a foul.
31
Update Update
Fouled by Moussa Baradji of Blackburn Rovers.
31
Update Update
Million Manhoef of Stoke City won a free kick in defense.
26
Attempt Attempt
Sam Gallagher's shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Jesurun Rak-Sakyi.
25
Update Update
Eric-Junior Bocat from Stoke City won a free kick in an attacking position.
25
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryoya Morishita of Blackburn Rovers.
24
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Aaron Cresswell replaces Ben Gibson due to injury.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Blackburn Rovers take the lead 1-0 with Adam Forshaw scoring from outside the box with his right foot.
21
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Ben Gibson from Stoke City.
17
Update Update
Foul by Yuki Ohashi - Blackburn Rovers.
17
Update Update
Lewis Baker from Stoke City won a free kick in defense.
16
Update Update
Offside called against Blackburn Rovers. Ryan Alebiosu is in an offside position.
14
Attempt Attempt
Ryoya Morishita from Blackburn Rovers had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but it went just left of the goal. Todd Cantwell provided the assist.
10
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Ryoya Morishita of Blackburn Rovers headed the ball from the center of the box.
9
Corner Corner
Million Manhoef from Stoke City had a missed chance as his right-footed shot from the left side of the box was close but missed the top right corner. The assist came from Eric-Junior Bocat.
7
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance for Stoke City. Ben Gibson heads the ball from inside the six-yard box, but it goes high and wide to the right. The assist came from Lewis Baker's cross.
6
Update Update
Moussa Baradji fouled a player from Blackburn Rovers.
6
Update Update
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi from Stoke City won a free kick on the right wing.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after Sean McLoughlin concedes.
5
Attempt Attempt
Sam Gallagher's shot for Stoke City from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Eric-Junior Bocat.
3
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Todd Cantwell from Blackburn Rovers takes a right-footed shot from over 35 yards after a free kick, but it goes high.
2
Update Update
Adam Forshaw from Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in an attacking position.
2
Update Update
Foul committed by Lewis Baker of Stoke City.
1
Corner Corner
Blackburn Rovers win a corner after Bosun Lawal concedes.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Stoke City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Stoke City vs Blackburn Rovers preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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