Start vs Tromsø Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Sparebanken Sør Arena Sun, 3 May - 3:00 PM
Eliteserien
Start Start
1 – 1
Tromsø Tromsø
Full Time Sun, 3 May 3:00 PM
Round 7 Regular Season
Erlend Segberg - 75'
Goal
|
Goal
Jens Hjertø-Dahl - 33'

CONTEXT

Start and Tromsø played out a 1-1 draw in the Eliteserien, with Tromsø taking a 1-0 lead at halftime before Start equalized in the second half. Home side Start controlled possession at 54% to Tromsø's 46%, reflecting their territorial dominance despite Tromsø entering as the stronger team. The result constituted a significant structural deviation of 74.8% associated with Tromsø, diverging from pre-match frameworks. Efficiency remained in line with assessments, though xG data was unavailable for performance evaluation. No red cards disrupted play, and no second-half adjustments were noted. Market alignment failed to materialize, as the stalemate defied Tromsø's favored status. This outcome underscores Start's second-half resilience in securing a point.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant structural deviation of 74.8% was recorded for Tromsø.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was not achieved in the 1-1 draw.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for post-match review.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments influenced the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Haugen

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Jaeger

1st Assistant

H. Grenå Pettersen

2nd Assistant

J. Mertens

4th Official

Start A. Karadas
A. Karadas
VS
Tromsø J. Vik
J. Vik
0.43
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.27
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 82 L
HamKam Rank: 58 L
Molde Rank: 64 D
Lillestrøm Rank: 53 L
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 58 D
Aalesund Rank: 42 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brann Rank: 67 L
Sandefjord Rank: 62 W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 60 W
Lillestrøm Rank: 53 D
Kristiansund Rank: 55 W
Rosenborg Rank: 62 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 7 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Start
20.82%
Draw
25.17%
Away Tromsø
54.01%

Movement

Changes since opening
Start
+17.6%
Draw
-67.17%
Tromsø
+49.57%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
47.12
68.05
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Start
Tromsø
Power Score
47.12
68.05
League Position
15
1
Global Rank
804
252

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Start — Opponent-weighted form score
Tromsø — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Start Tromsø

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Start

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Tromsø

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Start ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tromsø
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.26
17.07
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.07
29.26
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Start +1.25 Efficiency Index
vs
Tromsø -1.25 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Start
Tromsø
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Start ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tromsø
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Start Tromsø
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Start Tromsø
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Start
Tromsø
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Start
vs
Tromsø
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Start Tromsø
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Start 0.23
Tromsø 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Start Tromsø
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Start 0.03
Tromsø 0.02
Start
Tromsø
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Tromsø had peak pressure around 34'.
  • Start started the game with stronger pressure.
Start Pressure Tromsø Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Tromsø reached the top pressure at 34' (87.05).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Start Start Home
20 matches
Tromsø Tromsø Away
Match Record
6
Wins
7
7
Draws
7
7
Losses
6
Goals
28
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
28
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:05:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
J. Larsen
Denmark
1 J. Larsen
O. Toure
Norway
27 O. Toure
E. Reitan
Norway
29 E. Reitan
S. Griesbeck
Substitution
Germany
13 S. Griesbeck
O. Jebali
Tunisia
5 O. Jebali
T. Strannegard
Sweden
16 T. Strannegard
E. Schulze
Substitution
Norway
11 E. Schulze
E. Segberg
Norway
23 E. Segberg
M. Ugland
Substitution
Norway
18 M. Ugland
H. Lorentzen
Substitution
Norway
20 H. Lorentzen
J. Cornelius
Substitution
17 J. Cornelius
Pitch
J. Haugaard
Denmark
1 J. Haugaard
A. Warneryd
Substitution
Sweden
29 A. Warneryd
A. Kinteh
25 A. Kinteh
T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
Norway
21 T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
V. Skjærvik
Norway
4 V. Skjærvik
L. Jean Cornic
Substitution
Norway
2 L. Jean Cornic
J. Hjertø-Dahl
Norway
6 J. Hjertø-Dahl
R. Yttergård Jenssen
Norway
11 R. Yttergård Jenssen
D. Edvardsson
Sweden
5 D. Edvardsson
H. Larsen
Norway
22 H. Larsen
T. Engseth Nyhammer
Substitution
Norway
10 T. Engseth Nyhammer

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 7 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Sparebanken Sør Arena
Capacity :
14563
Attendance :
5795
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jørgen Haugen
Aleksander Jaeger
Henrik Andreas Grenå Pettersen
Javi Jean-Marc Conny Leo Mertens

Statistics

Possession
Start
53%
Tromsø
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
13 Shots 6
56 Dangerous attacks 37
54 Possession 46
3 Corners 2
14 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

80 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
7 Goal Kicks 13
29 Throwins 16
10 Dribble Attempts 11
8 Successful Dribbles 6
89 Ball Safe 89
8 Goal Attempts 6
1 Assists 1
0 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 3
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

114 Attacks 106
1 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

509 Passes 448
400 Successful Passes 335
79 Successful Passes Percentage 75
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
31 Successful Long Passes 47
75 Long Passes 93
7 Key Passes 4

Defensive

61 Duels Won 61
15 Tackles 10
1 Saves 2
7 Interceptions 11

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 12
5 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

13 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Jørgen Haugen

Starting XI ▼

1
J. Pryts
J. Pryts Goalkeeper
6.8
5
O. Jebali
O. Jebali Defender
6.54
13
S. Griesbeck
S. Griesbeck Defender
6.56
2
F. Pålerud
F. Pålerud
Defender69'
5.96
16
T. Strannegård
T. Strannegård Defender
6.68
27
Ousmane Diallo Toure
Ousmane Diallo Toure Defender
6.54
29
Erlend Dahl Reitan
Erlend Dahl Reitan Defender
6.87
11
E. Schulze
E. Schulze Midfielder
6.78
10
S. Mvoué
S. Mvoué
Midfielder77'
7
18
M. Ugland
M. Ugland Midfielder
6.89
14
Markus Soomets
Markus Soomets
Midfielder77'
6.57
23
Erlend Segberg
Erlend Segberg Midfielder
6.65
17
J. Cornelius
J. Cornelius Attacker
6.46
22
J. Ampofo
J. Ampofo
Attacker69'
6.71
20
H. Lorentzen
H. Lorentzen Attacker
6.74
6
John Norheim
John Norheim
Defender89'
6.5
Referee : Jørgen Haugen

Starting XI ▼

1
Jakob Haugaard
Jakob Haugaard Goalkeeper
6.96
2
Leo Cornic
Leo Cornic Defender
7.13
30
Isak Vådebu
Isak Vådebu
Defender75'
6.89
4
Vetle Skjærvik
Vetle Skjærvik Defender
7.2
21
Tobias Guddal
Tobias Guddal Defender
7.13
25
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh Defender
7.34
29
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd Defender
6.92
37
Sander Innvær
Sander Innvær
Midfielder86'
6.38
5
David Edvardsson
David Edvardsson Midfielder
7.1
6
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Jens Hjertø-Dahl Midfielder
7.19
11
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen Midfielder
7.21
10
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Troy Engseth Nyhammer Attacker
6.63
9
Daniel Braut
Daniel Braut
Attacker58'
6.74
22
Heine Åsen Larsen
Heine Åsen Larsen Attacker
6.97

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Erlend Dahl Reitan
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+2'
Event
Isak Vådebu
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
John Norheim → H. Lorentzen
8th Substitution
89'
86'
Event
Sander Innvær → Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
7th Substitution
Event
S. Mvoué → E. Schulze
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Markus Soomets → M. Ugland
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Erlend Segberg
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
75'
75'
Event
Isak Vådebu → Leo Cornic
4th Substitution
Event
J. Ampofo → J. Cornelius
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
F. Pålerud → S. Griesbeck
3rd Substitution
69'
58'
Event
Daniel Braut → Troy Engseth Nyhammer
1st Substitution
Event
Erlend Segberg
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
33'
Event
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Azar Karadas
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
26'
Event
M. Ugland
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
23'

CONCLUSION

Start earned a hard-fought 1-1 draw against stronger Tromsø, overturning a halftime deficit through sustained second-half pressure and 54% possession. The significant 74.8% structural deviation highlights how the result challenged Tromsø's pre-match edge, with efficiency holding steady. Absent xG data limits deeper insights, but the lack of red cards and events preserved natural flow. Market misalignment emphasizes Start's overperformance relative to expectations. This point bolsters Start's standing while exposing Tromsø's conversion issues, potentially informing future preparations amid balanced dynamics.

Start vs Tromsø preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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