Start vs Molde Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Sparebanken Sør Arena Sun, 19 Apr - 5:15 PM
Eliteserien
Start Start
1 – 1
Molde Molde
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 5:15 PM
Round 5 Regular Season
J. Cornelius - 22'
Goal
|
Goal
Emil Breivik - 64'

CONTEXT

In an Eliteserien encounter, Start secured a 1-1 draw against pre-match stronger side Molde at home. Start struck first in the opening half, leading 1-0 at halftime despite holding only 42% possession, while Molde dominated with 58%. The visitors leveled the score in the second period but failed to capitalize further on their territorial advantage. This result marked a significant 74.4% structural deviation, with the draw defying Molde's favored status. No red cards disrupted play, and efficiency remained in line with assessments. Absent xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but Start's resilience in limiting Molde to a single goal underscores effective counter-strategies. Possession disparity did not translate to dominance, emphasizing Start's compact defending and Molde's finishing constraints.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match ended in a significant 74.4% deviation from expectations favoring Molde.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome not aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable without recorded metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Amland

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

H. Grenå Pettersen

2nd Assistant

J. Haugen

4th Official

O. Skogsrud Haukåsen

1st Assistant

Start A. Karadas
A. Karadas
VS
Molde M. Falk
M. Falk
0.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lillestrøm Rank: L
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: D
Aalesund Rank: D
KFUM Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
HamKam Rank: W
Lillestrøm Rank: L
Viking Rank: L
Rosenborg Rank: W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: L
Brann Rank: W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 7 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Start
26.37%
Draw
25.64%
Away Molde
47.99%

Movement

Changes since opening
Start
+21.46%
Draw
-63.23%
Molde
+41.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
11.11
26.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Start
Molde
Power Score
11.11
26.93
League Position
15
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Start — Opponent-weighted form score
Molde — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Start Molde

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Start

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Molde

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Start ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Molde
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.60
20.69
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.69
35.60
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Start +1.51 Efficiency Index
vs
Molde -1.51 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Start
Molde
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Start ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Molde
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Start Molde
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Start Molde
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Start
Molde
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Start
vs
Molde
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Start Molde
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Start 0.20
Molde 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Start Molde
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Start 0.03
Molde 0.02
Start
Molde
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Molde had peak pressure around 71'.
  • Molde started the game with stronger pressure.
Start Pressure Molde Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Molde reached the top pressure at 71' (73.68).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Start Start Home
22 matches
Molde Molde Away
Match Record
5
Wins
10
7
Draws
7
10
Losses
5
Goals
24
Goals Scored
50
50
Goals Conceded
24
-26
Goal Difference
+26

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:06:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
J. Larsen
Denmark
1 J. Larsen
E. Reitan
Norway
29 E. Reitan
O. Jebali
Tunisia
5 O. Jebali
K. Tønnessen
Substitution
Norway
19 K. Tønnessen
O. Toure
Norway
27 O. Toure
E. Schulze
Substitution
Norway
11 E. Schulze
E. Segberg
Norway
23 E. Segberg
M. Ugland
Substitution
Norway
18 M. Ugland
T. Strannegard
Sweden
16 T. Strannegard
H. Lorentzen
Norway
20 H. Lorentzen
J. Cornelius
Substitution
17 J. Cornelius
Pitch
A. Posiadała
Poland
22 A. Posiadała
M. Linnes
Substitution
Norway
25 M. Linnes
E. Haugan
Norway
19 E. Haugan
S. Hansen
4 S. Hansen
H. Østervold Stenevik
Norway
18 H. Østervold Stenevik
C. Zady Sery
Ivory Coast
11 C. Zady Sery
V. Hoff
Substitution
Norway
15 V. Hoff
J. Christensen
Substitution
Denmark
14 J. Christensen
T. Doherty
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
24 T. Doherty
E. Breivik
Norway
10 E. Breivik
W. Abdulai
Substitution
Ghana
9 W. Abdulai

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 19, 2026, 05:15 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 5 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Sparebanken Sør Arena
Capacity :
14563
Attendance :
5870
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Henrik Andreas Grenå Pettersen
Jørgen Haugen
Ole Andreas Skogsrud Haukåsen
Sivert Amland

Statistics

Possession
Start
45%
Molde
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 5
59 Dangerous attacks 40
42 Possession 58
2 Corners 6
15 Free kicks 18
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

54 Ball Safe 63
9 Goal Attempts 9
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
7 Goal Kicks 7
10 Throwins 21
3 Successful Dribbles 5
12 Dribble Attempts 20
4 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1

Attacking

99 Attacks 111
1 Counter Attacks 2
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

399 Passes 567
304 Successful Passes 479
75 Long Passes 43
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
76 Successful Passes Percentage 84
33 Successful Long Passes 22
8 Key Passes 9

Defensive

55 Duels Won 62
8 Interceptions 15
24 Tackles 13
3 Saves 5

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 13
6 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

18 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Sivert Amland

Starting XI ▼

1
J. Pryts
J. Pryts Goalkeeper
6.75
5
O. Jebali
O. Jebali Defender
6.42
19
Kristoffer Tønnessen
Kristoffer Tønnessen Defender
6.85
13
S. Griesbeck
S. Griesbeck
Midfielder84'
6.73
29
Erlend Dahl Reitan
Erlend Dahl Reitan Defender
6.96
11
E. Schulze
E. Schulze Midfielder
6.77
22
J. Ampofo
J. Ampofo
Attacker65'
6.54
16
T. Strannegård
T. Strannegård Midfielder
6.68
18
M. Ugland
M. Ugland Midfielder
6.98
14
Markus Soomets
Markus Soomets
Midfielder69'
6.54
23
Erlend Segberg
Erlend Segberg Midfielder
6.49
27
Ousmane Diallo Toure
Ousmane Diallo Toure Midfielder
6.58
17
J. Cornelius
J. Cornelius Attacker
6.23
7
Alexander Figueiredo Gurendal
Alexander Figueiredo Gurendal
Attacker84'
6.42
20
H. Lorentzen
H. Lorentzen Attacker
6.73
Referee : Sivert Amland

Starting XI ▼

22
Albert Posiadala
Albert Posiadala Goalkeeper
6.56
4
S. Hansen
S. Hansen Defender
7.18
18
Halldor Stenevik
Halldor Stenevik Defender
7.06
19
Eirik Haugan
Eirik Haugan Defender
6.84
25
Martin Linnes
Martin Linnes Defender
7.02
33
Birk Risa
Birk Risa
Defender62'
7.13
11
Caleb Zady Sery
Caleb Zady Sery Midfielder
6.97
14
Jacob Christensen
Jacob Christensen Midfielder
6.76
17
Mats Møller Dæhli
Mats Møller Dæhli
Midfielder62'
6.82
15
Vebjørn Hoff
Vebjørn Hoff Midfielder
6.91
8
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Attacker62'
6.65
24
Trent Kone Doherty
Trent Kone Doherty Midfielder
6.81
5
Eirik Hestad
Eirik Hestad
Midfielder46'
6.95
9
Jalal Abdullai
Jalal Abdullai Attacker
6.89
23
Sondre Granaas
Sondre Granaas
Midfielder90+3'
6.59
10
Emil Breivik
Emil Breivik Attacker
7.75

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Sondre Granaas → Jalal Abdullai
9th Substitution
Event
S. Griesbeck → Kristoffer Tønnessen
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Alexander Figueiredo Gurendal → J. Cornelius
8th Substitution
84'
76'
Event
Birk Risa
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Markus Soomets → M. Ugland
6th Substitution
69'
Event
J. Ampofo → E. Schulze
5th Substitution
65'
64'
Event
Emil Breivik
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
62'
Event
Birk Risa → Martin Linnes
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Fredrik Gulbrandsen → Vebjørn Hoff
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Mats Møller Dæhli → Jacob Christensen
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Eirik Hestad
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Eirik Hestad → Trent Kone Doherty
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ousmane Diallo Toure
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'
Event
J. Cornelius
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
22'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Molde exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Start vs Molde preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Eliteserien, Norway View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.