Standard Liège vs Sporting Charleroi Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade Maurice Dufrasne Sat, 23 May - 6:45 PM
Pro League
Standard Liège STL
0 Winner 2
Sporting Charleroi SPC
Full Time Sat, 23 May 6:45 PM
Round 10 Conference League Play-off Group
|
Goal
Antoine Bernier - 86'
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas - 75'
|
Second yellow card Mardochée Nzita 89'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Standard Liège 0–2 Sporting Charleroi. The result saw Sporting Charleroi take the points. Sporting Charleroi showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 43%–57%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Standard Liège 0-2 Sporting Charleroi. Sporting Charleroi showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Boterberg

Belgium 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Senecaut

1st Assistant

Belgium

M. De Cuyper

2nd Assistant

Belgium

A. Letellier

4th Official

Belgium

League averages

Pro League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.54
Yellow cards / match 3.47
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.32
Standard Liège V. Euvrard
V. Euvrard
VS
Sporting Charleroi M. Kohnen
M. Kohnen
1.63
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Westerlo Rank: 71 W
Genk Rank: 77 D
OH Leuven Rank: 65 W
Antwerp Rank: 72 W
Genk Rank: 77 D
Antwerp Rank: 70 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
OH Leuven Rank: 65 D
Westerlo Rank: 70 L
Antwerp Rank: 70 W
Genk Rank: 77 W
OH Leuven Rank: 65 W
Genk Rank: 77 D
25
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
25 - 13 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Standard Liège
38.18%
Draw
29.23%
Away Sporting Charleroi
32.59%

Movement

Changes since opening
Standard Liège
+37.98%
Draw
+27.31%
Sporting Charleroi
-65.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.33
72.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Standard Liège
Sporting Charleroi
Power Score
71.33
72.45
League Position
8
11
Global Rank
174
156

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Standard Liège — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Charleroi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Standard Liège Sporting Charleroi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Standard Liège

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sporting Charleroi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Standard Liège ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Charleroi
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.09
26.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.14
22.09
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Standard Liège -0.38 Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting Charleroi +0.38 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Standard Liège
Sporting Charleroi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Standard Liège ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Charleroi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Standard Liège Sporting Charleroi
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Standard Liège Sporting Charleroi
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Standard Liège
Sporting Charleroi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Standard Liège
vs
Sporting Charleroi
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Standard Liège Sporting Charleroi
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Standard Liège 0.14
Sporting Charleroi 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Standard Liège Sporting Charleroi
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Standard Liège 0.05
Sporting Charleroi 0.00
Standard Liège
Sporting Charleroi
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STL had peak pressure around 43'.
  • SPC started the game with stronger pressure.
STL Pressure SPC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STL reached the top pressure at 43' (75.14).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 49 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Standard Liège STL Home
49 matches
Sporting Charleroi SPC Away
Match Record
25
Wins
11
13
Draws
13
11
Losses
25
Goals
76
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
76
+32
Goal Difference
-32

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T00:03:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Epolo Matthieu
Belgium
1 L. Epolo Matthieu
M. Fossey
Substitution
United States
13 M. Fossey
I. Hautekiet
Belgium
25 I. Hautekiet
D. Bates
Scotland
4 D. Bates
H. Lawrence
Substitution
England
18 H. Lawrence
G. Mortensen
Denmark
3 G. Mortensen
A. Adnane
Substitution
Belgium
11 A. Adnane
I. Karamoko
France
20 I. Karamoko
M. Ilaimaharitra
Substitution
Madagascar
23 M. Ilaimaharitra
R. Said Ahamada
Comoros
17 R. Said Ahamada
T. NKada
Substitution
France
59 T. NKada
Pitch
M. Kone
Ivory Coast
30 M. Kone
M. Nzita
Belgium
24 M. Nzita
C. keita
France
95 C. keita
A. Ousou
Sweden
4 A. Ousou
L. Blum
Substitution
Switzerland
27 L. Blum
E. Camara
Substitution
France
5 E. Camara
Y. Titraoui
Substitution
Algeria
22 Y. Titraoui
A. Bernier
Substitution
Belgium
17 A. Bernier
P. Pflücke
Substitution
Germany
14 P. Pflücke
K. Van Den Kerkhof
Algeria
3 K. Van Den Kerkhof
A. Scheidler
France
21 A. Scheidler

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 10 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium :
Stade Maurice Dufrasne
Capacity :
27670
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jan Boterberg
N. Senecaut
Michiel De Cuyper
Anthony Letellier

Statistics

Possession
STL
45%
SPC
55%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 4
3 Shots 3
50 Dangerous attacks 38
43 Possession 57
6 Corners 9
12 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 5
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

55 Ball Safe 65
5 Goal Attempts 8
1 Hit Woodwork 1
26 Throwins 12
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
10 Successful Dribbles 4
5 Goal Kicks 8
19 Dribble Attempts 11
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 2

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2
73 Attacks 95

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 83
53 Long Passes 55
4 Key Passes 7
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
311 Passes 405
235 Successful Passes 338
18 Successful Long Passes 26

Defensive

15 Tackles 20
2 Interceptions 7
48 Duels Won 48
3 Saves 4

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 7
22 Total Crosses 30

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Jan Boterberg

Starting XI ▼

1
Matthieu Epolo
Matthieu Epolo Goalkeeper
3
Gustav Julius Mortensen
Gustav Julius Mortensen Defender
4
David Bates
David Bates Defender
13
Marlon Fossey
Marlon Fossey Defender
7
Tobias Mohr
Tobias Mohr
Midfielder80'
18
Henry Lawrence
Henry Lawrence Defender
94
Casper Nielsen
Casper Nielsen
Midfielder67'
25
Ibe Hautekiet
Ibe Hautekiet Defender
11
Adnane Abid
Adnane Abid Midfielder
80
Teddy Teuma
Teddy Teuma
Midfielder67'
17
Rafiki Saïd
Rafiki Saïd Midfielder
20
Ibrahim Karamoko
Ibrahim Karamoko Midfielder
23
Marco Ilaimaharitra
Marco Ilaimaharitra Midfielder
10
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
Attacker67'
59
Timothé Nkada
Timothé Nkada Attacker
26
Bernard Nguene
Bernard Nguene
Attacker79'
Referee : Jan Boterberg

Starting XI ▼

30
Mohamed Koné
Mohamed Koné Goalkeeper
4
Aiham Ousou
Aiham Ousou Defender
24
Mardochée Nzita
Mardochée Nzita Defender
27
Lewin Blum
Lewin Blum Defender
10
Parfait Guiagon
Parfait Guiagon
Attacker68'
95
Check Keita
Check Keita Defender
3
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof Midfielder
5
Étienne Camara
Étienne Camara Midfielder
56
Amine Boukamir
Amine Boukamir
Midfielder90'
14
Patrick Pflücke
Patrick Pflücke Midfielder
8
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Midfielder68'
17
Antoine Bernier
Antoine Bernier Midfielder
25
Antoine Colassin
Antoine Colassin
Attacker90'
22
Yassine Titraoui
Yassine Titraoui Midfielder
40
Yassine Khalifi
Yassine Khalifi
Midfielder81'
21
Aurélien Scheidler
Aurélien Scheidler Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ibrahim Karamoko
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+4'
90'
Event
Amine Boukamir → Étienne Camara
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Antoine Colassin → Antoine Bernier
10th Substitution
Event
Teddy Teuma
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
89'
89'
Event
Mardochée Nzita
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
86'
Event
Antoine Bernier
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
83'
Event
Aiham Ousou
Off the ball foul / 5th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Yassine Khalifi → Yassine Titraoui
8th Substitution
Event
Tobias Mohr → Marlon Fossey
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Bernard Nguene → Timothé Nkada
6th Substitution
79'
76'
Event
Étienne Camara
4th Yellowcard
75'
Event
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Header / 1st Goal
68'
Event
Parfait Guiagon → Lewin Blum
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas → Patrick Pflücke
5th Substitution
Event
Dennis Eckert Ayensa → Marco Ilaimaharitra
1st Substitution
67'
Event
Casper Nielsen → Henry Lawrence
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Teddy Teuma → Adnane Abid
3rd Substitution
67'
50'
Event
Mardochée Nzita
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Marco Ilaimaharitra
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
23'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mardochee Nzita receives a second yellow card.
90
Substitution Substitution
Antoine Bernier is substituted for Antoine Colassin.
90
Update Update
Amine Boukamir comes on for Etienne Camara.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ibrahim Karamoko receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Karamoko takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Teddy Teuma receives a yellow card.
86
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Bernier scores with a left-footed shot.
81
Update Update
Yassine Khalifi replaces Yacine Titraoui.
80
Attempt Attempt
Rafiki Said takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
80
Attempt Attempt
Bernard Nguene attempted a header but missed the shot.
80
Update Update
Tobias Mohr comes on for Marlon Fossey.
79
Update Update
Bernard Nguene replaces Timothe Nkada.
75
Update Update
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas scores with a header.
73
Attempt Attempt
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
68
Update Update
Parfait Guiagon comes on for Lewin Blum.
68
Update Update
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas comes on for Patrick Pflucke.
67
Update Update
Dennis Eckert replaces Adnane Abid.
67
Update Update
Parfait Guiagon is on, and Patrick Pflucke is off.
67
Update Update
Casper Nielsen is on, and Henry Lawrence is off.
65
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Bernier's right-footed shot is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof's right-footed shot is blocked.
63
Attempt Attempt
Aurelien Scheidler's right-footed shot is saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Aiham Ousou's header is saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Karamoko's header is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Aurelien Scheidler's right-footed shot is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Rafiki Said takes a header shot, but it misses the target.
38
Attempt Attempt
Rafiki Said takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Bernier's left-footed shot is saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Rafiki Said takes a right-footed shot but misses.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marco Ilaimaharitra receives a yellow card.
18
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Pflucke takes a left-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Aurelien Scheidler takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
6
Attempt Attempt
Yacine Titraoui takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Bernier takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Standard Liège 0-2 Sporting Charleroi. Structural assessment: Sporting Charleroi exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Standard Liège vs Sporting Charleroi preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Pro League, Belgium View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Dan A

Dan A creates clear football match previews built around team form, performance trends, and practical pre-match insights.