Standard Liège vs OH Leuven Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade Maurice Dufrasne Fri, 8 May - 6:45 PM
Pro League
Standard Liège STL
2 Winner 1
OH Leuven OHL
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:45 PM
Round 7 Conference League Play-off Group
Casper Nielsen - 69'
Henry Lawrence - 47'
Goal
|
Goal
Roggerio Nyakossi - 40'

CONTEXT

Standard Liège claimed a hard-fought 2-1 victory against OH Leuven, overcoming a 0-1 halftime deficit to secure the win. The home team, recognized as the stronger side, controlled 55% possession while OH Leuven held 45%, reflecting their dominance on the ball. After conceding early, Standard Liège rallied in the second half, netting twice without reply to turn the game around. No red cards disrupted play, allowing both squads to field full lineups throughout. This outcome marked a significant 51% structural deviation favoring Standard Liège, aligning with market expectations where they were pre-favored at 49%. Efficiency levels stayed in line with projections, underscoring the home side's tactical discipline and resilience. The match highlighted Standard Liège's ability to adapt post-interval, converting pressure into goals effectively.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Standard Liège's 2-1 win exhibited a significant 51% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true, consistent with pre-match favoritism for Standard Liège.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unevaluable from missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Van Driessche

Belgium 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

Y. De Neve

1st Assistant

Belgium

Y. De Neve

2nd Assistant

Belgium

R. Calluy

4th Official

Belgium

League averages

Pro League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.29
Yellow cards / match 3.22
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.33
Standard Liège V. Euvrard
V. Euvrard
VS
OH Leuven F. Mazzù
F. Mazzù
1.43
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antwerp Rank: 72 W
Genk Rank: 77 D
Antwerp Rank: 70 L
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 69 W
Westerlo Rank: 71 L
OH Leuven Rank: 64 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Westerlo Rank: 71 D
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 69 L
Westerlo Rank: 71 L
Antwerp Rank: 68 L
Genk Rank: 76 D
Standard Liège Rank: 72 L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 7 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Standard Liège
48.95%
Draw
26.57%
Away OH Leuven
24.48%

Movement

Changes since opening
Standard Liège
-47.16%
Draw
+22.87%
OH Leuven
+24.29%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.54
64.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Standard Liège
OH Leuven
Power Score
71.54
64.33
League Position
8
12
Global Rank
176
350

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Standard Liège — Opponent-weighted form score
OH Leuven — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Standard Liège OH Leuven

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Standard Liège

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

OH Leuven

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Standard Liège ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy OH Leuven
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.00
30.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.89
27.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Standard Liège -0.37 Efficiency Index
vs
OH Leuven +0.37 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Standard Liège
OH Leuven
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Standard Liège ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy OH Leuven
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Standard Liège OH Leuven
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Standard Liège OH Leuven
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Standard Liège
OH Leuven
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Standard Liège
vs
OH Leuven
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Standard Liège OH Leuven
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Standard Liège 0.35
OH Leuven 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Standard Liège OH Leuven
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Standard Liège 0.03
OH Leuven 0.05
Standard Liège
OH Leuven
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • OHL had peak pressure around 17'.
  • OHL started the game with stronger pressure.
STL Pressure OHL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: OHL reached the top pressure at 17' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Standard Liège STL Home
25 matches
OH Leuven OHL Away
Match Record
9
Wins
9
7
Draws
7
9
Losses
9
Goals
34
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
34
+7
Goal Difference
-7

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:03:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
L. Epolo Matthieu
Belgium
1 L. Epolo Matthieu
I. Hautekiet
Belgium
25 I. Hautekiet
D. Bates
Scotland
4 D. Bates
J. Homawoo
Togo
24 J. Homawoo
H. Lawrence
England
18 H. Lawrence
C. Nielsen
Substitution
Denmark
94 C. Nielsen
I. Karamoko
Substitution
France
20 I. Karamoko
G. Mortensen
Denmark
3 G. Mortensen
A. Adnane
Substitution
Belgium
11 A. Adnane
R. Said Ahamada
Substitution
Comoros
17 R. Said Ahamada
T. NKada
Substitution
France
59 T. NKada
Pitch
T. Leysen
Belgium
1 T. Leysen
T. Akimoto
Japan
30 T. Akimoto
R. Nyakossi
Switzerland
34 R. Nyakossi
E. Pletinckx
Belgium
28 E. Pletinckx
H. Teklab
Substitution
Germany
14 H. Teklab
Ł. Łakomy
Poland
24 Ł. Łakomy
W. George
Substitution
Belgium
6 W. George
D. Opoku
Belgium
99 D. Opoku
A. Traoré
Substitution
9 A. Traoré
K. Vaesen
Substitution
Belgium
17 K. Vaesen
S. Kaba
Substitution
Guinea
39 S. Kaba

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 7 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium :
Stade Maurice Dufrasne
Capacity :
27670
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Yves De Neve
Yves De Neve
Ruben Calluy
Bram Van Driessche

Statistics

Possession
STL
54%
OHL
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
13 Shots 12
37 Dangerous attacks 38
55 Possession 45
3 Corners 7
12 Free kicks 5
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

11 Dribble Attempts 4
21 Throwins 14
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
87 Ball Safe 90
15 Goal Attempts 7
6 Goal Kicks 14
3 Successful Dribbles 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
2 Injuries 1

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
88 Attacks 66

Possession

398 Successful Passes 304
43 Long Passes 59
17 Successful Long Passes 19
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
83 Successful Passes Percentage 78
477 Passes 388
12 Key Passes 6

Defensive

1 Saves 2
40 Duels Won 29
8 Interceptions 8
9 Tackles 15

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 5
13 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
5 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Bram Van Driessche

Starting XI ▼

1
Matthieu Epolo
Matthieu Epolo Goalkeeper
4
David Bates
David Bates Defender
24
Josué Homawoo
Josué Homawoo Defender
25
Ibe Hautekiet
Ibe Hautekiet Defender
3
Gustav Julius Mortensen
Gustav Julius Mortensen Midfielder
18
Henry Lawrence
Henry Lawrence Midfielder
20
Ibrahim Karamoko
Ibrahim Karamoko Midfielder
23
Marco Ilaimaharitra
Marco Ilaimaharitra
Midfielder46'
94
Casper Nielsen
Casper Nielsen Midfielder
80
Teddy Teuma
Teddy Teuma
Midfielder75'
11
Adnane Abid
Adnane Abid Attacker
7
Tobias Mohr
Tobias Mohr
Midfielder75'
17
Rafiki Saïd
Rafiki Saïd Attacker
26
Bernard Nguene
Bernard Nguene
Attacker90+3'
59
Timothé Nkada
Timothé Nkada Attacker
10
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
Attacker63'
Referee : Bram Van Driessche

Starting XI ▼

1
Tobe Leysen
Tobe Leysen Goalkeeper
28
Ewoud Pletinckx
Ewoud Pletinckx Defender
30
Takahiro Akimoto
Takahiro Akimoto Defender
34
Roggerio Nyakossi
Roggerio Nyakossi Defender
6
Wouter George
Wouter George Midfielder
8
Siebe Schrijvers
Siebe Schrijvers
Midfielder79'
14
Henok Teklab
Henok Teklab Midfielder
48
Bryang Kayo
Bryang Kayo
Midfielder87'
24
Lukasz Lakomy
Lukasz Lakomy Midfielder
99
Davis Opoku
Davis Opoku Midfielder
9
Abdoul Karim Traoré
Abdoul Karim Traoré Attacker
21
William Balikwisha
William Balikwisha
Attacker73'
17
Kyan Vaesen
Kyan Vaesen Attacker
33
Mathieu Maertens
Mathieu Maertens
Midfielder79'
39
Sory Kaba
Sory Kaba Attacker
19
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Attacker73'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Bernard Nguene → Rafiki Saïd
10th Substitution
90+3'
87'
Event
Bryang Kayo → Henok Teklab
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Mathieu Maertens → Kyan Vaesen
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Siebe Schrijvers → Wouter George
8th Substitution
Event
Tobias Mohr → Adnane Abid
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Teddy Teuma → Casper Nielsen
6th Substitution
75'
73'
Event
William Balikwisha → Abdoul Karim Traoré
3rd Substitution
73'
Event
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi → Sory Kaba
4th Substitution
Event
Casper Nielsen
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
69'
Event
Dennis Eckert Ayensa → Timothé Nkada
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Henry Lawrence
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
47'
Event
Marco Ilaimaharitra → Ibrahim Karamoko
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Roggerio Nyakossi
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
40'
Event
Roggerio Nyakossi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
34'
Event
Kyan Vaesen
Persistent fouling / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Timothé Nkada
Goal disallowed
33'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Bernard Nguene is on, and Rafiki Said is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Siebi Schrijvers takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Siebi Schrijvers takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rafiki Said's left-footed shot is saved.
87
Update Update
Bryang Kayo replaces Henok Teklab.
80
Attempt Attempt
Henry Lawrence takes a right-footed shot but misses.
80
Attempt Attempt
Henry Lawrence takes a right-footed shot but misses.
79
Update Update
Mathieu Maertens is on, and Kyan Vaesen is off.
79
Update Update
Siebi Schrijvers is on, and Wouter George is off.
78
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Eckert takes a left-footed shot but misses.
77
Attempt Attempt
Rafiki Said takes a left-footed shot but misses.
75
Update Update
Tobias Mohr comes on for Adnane Abid.
75
Update Update
Teddy Teuma comes on for Casper Nielsen.
74
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Eckert takes a right-footed shot but misses.
73
Update Update
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi comes on for Sory Kaba.
73
Update Update
William Balikwisha is on, and Kyan Vaesen is off.
69
Attempt Attempt
Casper Nielsen scores with a right-footed shot.
65
Attempt Attempt
Casper Nielsen's right-footed shot is blocked.
63
Update Update
Dennis Eckert comes on for Timothe Nkada.
58
Attempt Attempt
Abdoul Karim Traore takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Update Update
Roggerio Nyakossi's header is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Henok Teklab's right-footed shot is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Timothe Nkada takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Rafiki Said takes a left-footed shot but misses.
47
Update Update
Timothe Nkada's header is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Henry Lawrence scores with a left-footed shot.
46
Update Update
Marco Ilaimaharitra is on, and Ibrahim Karamoko is off.
40
Attempt Attempt
Roggerio Nyakossi takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
40
Attempt Attempt
Roggerio Nyakossi takes a right-footed shot and scores.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kyan Vaesen receives a yellow card.
32
Attempt Attempt
Timothe Nkada takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
32
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Timothe Nkada.
31
Attempt Attempt
Abdoul Karim Traore attempts a header but misses the shot.
26
Attempt Attempt
Rafiki Said takes a left-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Kyan Vaesen takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Sory Kaba takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Timothe Nkada's left-footed shot is saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Bram Van Driessche.

CONCLUSION

Standard Liège's comeback triumph from 0-1 down to a 2-1 win exemplifies their second-half prowess and possession edge at 55%. As the stronger team, they capitalized on opportunities without red card interruptions, delivering a result with significant 51% deviation yet fully market-aligned. Efficiency in line with norms reinforced their control, turning halftime pressure into victory. This performance boosts morale ahead of future fixtures, validating their status while exposing OH Leuven's defensive frailties post-break. Overall, it cements Standard Liège's competitive edge in the league.

Standard Liège vs OH Leuven preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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