Standard Liège vs Antwerp Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade Maurice Dufrasne Tue, 21 Apr - 6:30 PM
Pro League
Standard Liège STL
1 Winner 2
Antwerp ANT
Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 4 Conference League Play-off Group
Casper Nielsen - 78' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Christopher Scott - 66', 47'

CONTEXT

Standard Liège faced Antwerp at home in a closely contested match that concluded 1-2 in favor of the visitors. The first half ended 0-0, with possession slightly favoring Antwerp at 53% to Standard Liège's 47%. Despite being labeled the stronger team, Standard Liège could not convert their opportunities, while Antwerp struck twice in the second half to claim victory. No red cards were issued, maintaining full squad participation throughout. The outcome exhibited minimal structural deviation of 4.4%, tilted toward Antwerp. Market expectations aligned with the result, and efficiency metrics stayed in line with pre-match assessments. Lacking xG data, deeper chance quality analysis remains unavailable, but the possession balance and goal timing underscore Antwerp's clinical second-half execution against a resilient home side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result showed minimal structural deviation of 4.4% favoring Antwerp.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market views.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without data.
  • Event impact: No notable events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

N. Verboomen

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Hillaert

1st Assistant

L. Visser

4th Official

M. Toeback

2nd Assistant

Standard Liège V. Euvrard
V. Euvrard
VS
Antwerp J. Oosting
J. Oosting
1.45
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.23
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
Westerlo Rank: L
OH Leuven Rank: W
Westerlo Rank: D
Antwerp Rank: D
Zulte-Waregem Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
OH Leuven Rank: W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: L
Genk Rank: L
OH Leuven Rank: L
Standard Liège Rank: D
La Louvière Rank: D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 8 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Standard Liège
0.19%
Draw
4.2%
Away Antwerp
95.61%

Movement

Changes since opening
Standard Liège
0%
Draw
-0.89%
Antwerp
+0.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.75
23.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Standard Liège
Antwerp
Power Score
24.75
23.57
League Position
8
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Standard Liège — Opponent-weighted form score
Antwerp — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Standard Liège Antwerp

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Standard Liège

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Antwerp

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Standard Liège ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Antwerp
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.13
35.09
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.09
37.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Standard Liège +0.19 Efficiency Index
vs
Antwerp -0.19 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Standard Liège
Antwerp
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Standard Liège ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Antwerp
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Standard Liège Antwerp
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Standard Liège Antwerp
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Standard Liège
Antwerp
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Standard Liège
vs
Antwerp
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Standard Liège Antwerp
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Standard Liège 0.31
Antwerp 0.53
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Standard Liège Antwerp
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Standard Liège 0.06
Antwerp 0.02
Standard Liège
Antwerp
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STL had peak pressure around 75'.
  • STL started the game with stronger pressure.
STL Pressure ANT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STL reached the top pressure at 75' (87.52).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Standard Liège STL Home
20 matches
Antwerp ANT Away
Match Record
5
Wins
7
8
Draws
8
7
Losses
5
Goals
22
Goals Scored
33
33
Goals Conceded
22
-11
Goal Difference
+11

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:02:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
L. Epolo Matthieu
Belgium
1 L. Epolo Matthieu
D. Dierckx
Substitution
Belgium
29 D. Dierckx
I. Hautekiet
Belgium
25 I. Hautekiet
J. Homawoo
Togo
24 J. Homawoo
H. Lawrence
Substitution
England
18 H. Lawrence
C. Nielsen
Denmark
94 C. Nielsen
I. Karamoko
France
20 I. Karamoko
G. Mortensen
Denmark
3 G. Mortensen
B. Nguene
Substitution
26 B. Nguene
A. Adnane
Belgium
11 A. Adnane
T. NKada
Substitution
France
59 T. NKada
Pitch
T. Nozawa
Japan
41 T. Nozawa
D. Foulon
Belgium
5 D. Foulon
Y. Tsunashima
Japan
4 Y. Tsunashima
Z. Van Den Bosch
Belgium
33 Z. Van Den Bosch
F. Adekami
Substitution
22 F. Adekami
Xander Dierckx
Belgium
78 Xander Dierckx
D. Praet
Belgium
8 D. Praet
A. Valencia
Substitution
Ecuador
14 A. Valencia
C. Scott
Germany
30 C. Scott
G. Kerk
Netherlands
7 G. Kerk
V. Janssen
Substitution
Netherlands
18 V. Janssen

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 21, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 4 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium :
Stade Maurice Dufrasne
Capacity :
27670
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Nathan Verboomen
Mathias Hillaert
Lawrence Visser
Maarten Toeback

Statistics

Possession
STL
47%
ANT
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 3
15 Shots 17
49 Dangerous attacks 32
47 Possession 53
6 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

16 Dribble Attempts 11
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
18 Throwins 14
6 Goal Kicks 6
7 Successful Dribbles 7
9 Goal Attempts 8
76 Ball Safe 90
0 Assists 2
4 Substitutions 3
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

89 Attacks 97
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

254 Successful Passes 328
74 Successful Passes Percentage 78
20 Successful Long Passes 26
62 Long Passes 69
345 Passes 418
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
10 Key Passes 13

Defensive

10 Interceptions 15
8 Tackles 14
43 Duels Won 47
1 Saves 3

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 6
26 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

13 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Nathan Verboomen

Starting XI ▼

1
Matthieu Epolo
Matthieu Epolo Goalkeeper
7.06
24
Josué Homawoo
Josué Homawoo Defender
6.88
25
Ibe Hautekiet
Ibe Hautekiet Defender
6.89
29
Daan Dierckx
Daan Dierckx Defender
6.91
7
Tobias Mohr
Tobias Mohr
Midfielder67'
6.94
3
Gustav Julius Mortensen
Gustav Julius Mortensen Midfielder
6.7
18
Henry Lawrence
Henry Lawrence Midfielder
6.69
53
Steeven Assengue
Steeven Assengue
Midfielder87'
6.62
20
Ibrahim Karamoko
Ibrahim Karamoko Midfielder
6.71
94
Casper Nielsen
Casper Nielsen Midfielder
6.78
11
Adnane Abid
Adnane Abid Attacker
6.83
26
Bernard Nguene
Bernard Nguene Attacker
6.69
17
Rafiki Saïd
Rafiki Saïd
Attacker62'
6.84
59
Timothé Nkada
Timothé Nkada Attacker
6.47
19
René Mitongo
René Mitongo
Attacker68'
6.52
Referee : Nathan Verboomen

Starting XI ▼

41
Taishi Brandon Nozawa
Taishi Brandon Nozawa Goalkeeper
7
4
Yuto Tsunashima
Yuto Tsunashima Defender
6.88
5
Daam Foulon
Daam Foulon Defender
6.82
33
Zeno Van Den Bosch
Zeno Van Den Bosch Defender
6.84
8
Dennis Praet
Dennis Praet Midfielder
6.9
14
Anthony Valencia
Anthony Valencia Midfielder
6.85
24
Thibo Somers
Thibo Somers
Attacker68'
6.97
22
Farouck Adekami
Farouck Adekami Midfielder
6.87
20
Rein Van Helden
Rein Van Helden
Defender85'
6.94
78
Xander Dierckx
Xander Dierckx Midfielder
6.34
7
Gyrano Kerk
Gyrano Kerk Attacker
6.79
18
Vincent Janssen
Vincent Janssen Attacker
7.05
43
Youssef Hamdaoui
Youssef Hamdaoui
Midfielder68'
6.72
30
Christopher Scott
Christopher Scott Attacker
2
6.9

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Steeven Assengue → Henry Lawrence
7th Substitution
87'
85'
Event
Rein Van Helden → Farouck Adekami
6th Substitution
Event
Henry Lawrence
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
80'
Event
Farouck Adekami
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Casper Nielsen
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
78'
Event
Tobias Mohr
Penalty awarded
75'
71'
Event
Gyrano Kerk
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
René Mitongo → Timothé Nkada
4th Substitution
68'
68'
Event
Thibo Somers → Anthony Valencia
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Youssef Hamdaoui → Vincent Janssen
3rd Substitution
Event
Tobias Mohr → Daan Dierckx
2nd Substitution
67'
66'
Event
Christopher Scott
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Rafiki Saïd → Bernard Nguene
1st Substitution
62'
47'
Event
Christopher Scott
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Antwerp's 2-1 triumph over stronger-favored Standard Liège highlights effective second-half management, overcoming a goalless first half and slight possession deficit. With 53% ball control, visitors converted key moments without disciplinary interruptions. Minimal 4.4% deviation and market consistency affirm the result's predictability, while absent xG limits chance evaluation. Standard Liège's failure to capitalize despite home advantage exposes efficiency gaps, positioning Antwerp favorably in standings implications.

Standard Liège vs Antwerp preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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