St. Pauli vs FC Köln Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Millerntor-Stadion Fri, 17 Apr - 6:30 PM
Bundesliga
St. Pauli PAU
1 1
FC Köln KOE
Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Karol Mets - 69'
Goal
|
Goal
Luca Waldschmidt - 86' (P)

CONTEXT

In a gripping Bundesliga encounter at Millerntor-Stadion, St. Pauli battled to a 1-1 draw against FC Köln, maintaining their unbeaten home record. The first half was a tactical stalemate, ending 0-0 with possession split nearly evenly at 49% for the hosts and 51% for the visitors. Köln struck first in the second half, but St. Pauli responded swiftly through disciplined counter-attacks and clinical finishing, showcasing their resilience as the stronger team on paper. No red cards marred the contest, allowing both sides to express their strategies freely. The even keel of the game highlighted St. Pauli's defensive solidity and Köln's inability to convert slight dominance into victory. This result underscores St. Pauli's growing threat in the league, denying Köln crucial away points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant 71.2% structural deviation favored St. Pauli in the draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with expectations across both halves.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment verification with outcome.
  • Market alignment: Market views misaligned as draw defied pre-match favoritism toward FC Köln.
  • xG expectations: Null xG figures left expectations unassessed for either team.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to the game's natural progression.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Jöllenbeck

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Weickenmeier

1st Assistant

C. Gittelmann

2nd Assistant

F. Bickel

4th Official

St. Pauli A. Blessin
A. Blessin
VS
FC Köln R. Wagner
R. Wagner
0.78
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.87
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Bayern München Rank: L
FC Union Berlin Rank: D
SC Freiburg Rank: L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: L
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: D
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Werder Bremen Rank: W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: D
Hamburger SV Rank: D
Borussia Dortmund Rank: L
FC Augsburg Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Pauli
32.7%
Draw
28.83%
Away FC Köln
38.47%

Movement

Changes since opening
St. Pauli
+28.64%
Draw
-62.67%
FC Köln
+34.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.41
15.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Pauli
FC Köln
Power Score
18.41
15.79
League Position
16
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
St. Pauli Opponent-weighted form score
FC Köln Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Pauli FC Köln

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

St. Pauli

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

FC Köln

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

St. Pauli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Köln
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.92
23.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.14
30.92
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
St. Pauli +0.68 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Köln -0.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
St. Pauli
FC Köln
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

St. Pauli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Köln
Created Set-piece attacking threat
St. Pauli FC Köln
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
St. Pauli FC Köln
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
St. Pauli
FC Köln
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

St. Pauli
vs
FC Köln
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
St. Pauli FC Köln
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
St. Pauli FC Köln
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
St. Pauli
FC Köln
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PAU had peak pressure around 36'.
  • KOE started the game with stronger pressure.
PAU Pressure KOE Pressure
Pressure Index: PAU reached the top pressure at 36' (90.44).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Pauli PAU Home
3 matches
FC Köln KOE Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
4
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:02:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
N. Vasilj
Bosnia and Herzegovina
22 N. Vasilj
T. Ando
Japan
15 T. Ando
H. Wahl
Germany
5 H. Wahl
K. Mets
Estonia
3 K. Mets
A. Pyrka
Poland
11 A. Pyrka
M. Rasmussen
Norway
20 M. Rasmussen
J. Irvine
Australia
7 J. Irvine
L. Ritzka
Substitution
Germany
21 L. Ritzka
D. Sinani
Luxembourg
10 D. Sinani
M. Pereira Lage
Substitution
Portugal
28 M. Pereira Lage
A. Hountondji
Substitution
France
27 A. Hountondji
Pitch
M. Schwäbe
Germany
1 M. Schwäbe
A. Castro-Montes
Substitution
Belgium
17 A. Castro-Montes
C. Özkacar
Turkey
39 C. Özkacar
J. Simpson-Pusey
England
22 J. Simpson-Pusey
S. Sebulonsen
Substitution
Norway
28 S. Sebulonsen
J. Kamiński
Poland
16 J. Kamiński
E. Martel
Germany
6 E. Martel
Í. Jóhannesson
Substitution
Iceland
18 Í. Jóhannesson
J. Thielmann
Substitution
Germany
29 J. Thielmann
S. El Mala
Germany
13 S. El Mala
R. Ache
Substitution
Germany
9 R. Ache

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 17, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Millerntor-Stadion
Capacity :
29546
Attendance :
29546
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jonas Weickenmeier
Christian Gittelmann
Felix Bickel
Matthias Jöllenbeck

Statistics

Possession
PAU
48%
KOE
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 4
43 Dangerous attacks 36
49 Possession 51
8 Corners 5
2 Free kicks 5
4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

25 Throwins 23
7 Goal Kicks 7
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
9 Successful Headers 25
3 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
8 Dribble Attempts 12
2 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Assists 0
0 Penalties 1
5 Goal Attempts 4
60 Ball Safe 64

Attacking

94 Attacks 102
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

425 Passes 460
80 Successful Passes Percentage 82
339 Successful Passes 378
12 Successful Long Passes 19
42 Long Passes 64
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
9 Key Passes 6

Defensive

8 Interceptions 13
24 Duels Won 49
0 Saves 4
11 Tackles 14

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 3
18 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
6 Fouls 2

Lineup

Referee : Matthias Jöllenbeck

Starting XI

22
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj Goalkeeper
6.85
3
Karol Mets
Karol Mets Defender
6.62
5
Hauke Wahl
Hauke Wahl Defender
6.79
15
T. Ando
T. Ando Defender
6.62
7
Jackson Irvine
Jackson Irvine Midfielder
6.77
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Midfielder
6.65
20
Mathias Rasmussen
Mathias Rasmussen Midfielder
6.6
21
Lars Ritzka
Lars Ritzka Midfielder
6.58
2
Manolis Saliakas
Manolis Saliakas
Defender65'
6.96
10
Danel Sinani
Danel Sinani Attacker
7.03
27
Andréas Hountondji
Andréas Hountondji Attacker
6.58
24
Connor Metcalfe
Connor Metcalfe
Midfielder77'
6.56
28
Mathias Pereira Lage
Mathias Pereira Lage Attacker
6.82
19
Martijn Kaars
Martijn Kaars
Attacker87'
6.59
Referee : Matthias Jöllenbeck

Starting XI

1
Marvin Schwäbe
Marvin Schwäbe Goalkeeper
6.89
17
Alessio Castro-Montes
Alessio Castro-Montes Defender
7.03
32
Kristoffer Lund
Kristoffer Lund
Defender70'
6.73
22
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Defender
6.67
28
Sebastian Sebulonsen
Sebastian Sebulonsen Defender
6.56
27
Felipe Chavez
Felipe Chavez
Midfielder79'
6.57
39
Cenk Özkacar
Cenk Özkacar Defender
6.65
6
Eric Martel
Eric Martel Midfielder
6.87
16
Jakub Kamiński
Jakub Kamiński Midfielder
7.1
18
Ísak Jóhannesson
Ísak Jóhannesson Midfielder
6.76
7
Luca Waldschmidt
Luca Waldschmidt
Attacker79'
6.8
29
Jan Thielmann
Jan Thielmann Midfielder
6.7
37
Linton Maina
Linton Maina
Midfielder46'
6.7
9
Ragnar Ache
Ragnar Ache Attacker
6.93
30
Marius Bülter
Marius Bülter
Attacker51'
6.89
13
Said El Mala
Said El Mala Attacker
6.77

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Danel Sinani
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Martijn Kaars Mathias Pereira Lage
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Mathias Pereira Lage
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
87'
87'
Event
Said El Mala
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
86'
Event
Luca Waldschmidt
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
84'
Event
Jakub Kamiński
Penalty awarded
79'
Event
Felipe Chavez Sebastian Sebulonsen
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Luca Waldschmidt Ísak Jóhannesson
7th Substitution
Event
Connor Metcalfe Andréas Hountondji
5th Substitution
77'
Event
T. Ando
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
76'
Event
Andréas Hountondji
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
71'
70'
Event
Kristoffer Lund Alessio Castro-Montes
4th Substitution
Event
Karol Mets
Header / 1st Goal
69'
Event
Manolis Saliakas Lars Ritzka
3rd Substitution
65'
51'
Event
Marius Bülter Ragnar Ache
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Linton Maina Jan Thielmann
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 8 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after Tomoya Ando concedes.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after a concession by Connor Metcalfe.
90
Corner Corner
Cenk Özkacar of 1. FC Köln missed a chance, heading the ball from the center of the box after a corner.
90
Update Update
Martijn Kaars of FC St. Pauli Hamburg is caught offside.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 1-1 between FC St. Pauli Hamburg and 1. FC Köln.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Danel Sinani of FC St. Pauli Hamburg receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Manolis Saliakas from FC St. Pauli Hamburg has a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked. The assist was provided by Jackson Irvine.
90
Update Update
Danel Sinani fouled a player from FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
90
Update Update
Kristoffer Lund from 1. FC Köln won a free kick in defense.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Saïd El Mala from 1. FC Köln receives a yellow card.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mathias Pereira Lage from FC St. Pauli receives a yellow card.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Martijn Kaars replaces Mathias Pereira Lage.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Luca Waldschmidt scores for 1. FC Köln with a left-footed shot into the right corner. The match remains 1-1.
84
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a penalty for 1. FC Köln.
83
Update Update
Karol Mets of FC St. Pauli Hamburg concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
83
Update Update
Jakub Kaminski is fouled in the penalty area, resulting in a penalty for 1. FC Köln.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Luca Waldschmidt replaces Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Felipe Chávez replaces Sebastian Sebulonsen.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Connor Metcalfe replaces Andréas Hountondji.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tomoya Ando of FC St. Pauli Hamburg receives a yellow card for a foul.
75
Update Update
Foul by Tomoya Ando of FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
75
Update Update
Saïd El Mala from 1. FC Köln won a free kick on the left wing.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Andréas Hountondji of FC St. Pauli Hamburg receives a yellow card for a foul.
71
Update Update
Andréas Hountondji of FC St. Pauli Hamburg commits a foul.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Andréas Hountondji of FC St. Pauli Hamburg receives a yellow card for a foul.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Kristoffer Lund replaces Alessio Castro-Montes.
69
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Cenk Özkacar concedes.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC St. Pauli Hamburg leads 1-0 against 1. FC Köln. Karol Mets scores with a header from close range, assisted by Hauke Wahl's header from a corner.
66
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Mathias Rasmussen of FC St. Pauli Hamburg heads the ball from close range but it goes over the bar. The assist came from Mathias Pereira Lage, who delivered a cross after a corner.
65
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Eric Martel concedes.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Manolis Saliakas replaces Lars Ritzka.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after a concession by Arkadiusz Pyrka.
58
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Cenk Özkacar concedes.
58
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Pereira Lage from FC St. Pauli Hamburg has a shot from outside the box with his right foot, but it's blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Pereira Lage's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC St. Pauli Hamburg after Alessio Castro-Montes concedes.
57
Update Update
Tomoya Ando's header from the right side of the six-yard box is blocked. The assist came from Danel Sinani's cross.
56
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Marvin Schwäbe concedes.
56
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Andréas Hountondji of FC St. Pauli Hamburg takes a right-footed shot from a difficult position on the left, but it's saved in the top left corner. Mathias Rasmussen provides the assist.
54
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Eric Martel from 1. FC Köln has his right-footed shot from the center of the box blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Saïd El Mala from 1. FC Köln hits the bar with a right-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Alessio Castro-Montes.
52
Update Update
Offside called against 1. FC Köln. Jakub Kaminski is offside.
51
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Marius Bülter replaces Ragnar Ache due to injury.
50
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Ragnar Ache of 1. FC Köln.
46
Update Update
Offside called against FC St. Pauli Hamburg. Mathias Rasmussen is in an offside position.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with FC St. Pauli Hamburg and 1. FC Köln tied at 0-0.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after Andréas Hountondji concedes.
45
Corner Corner
Jan Thielmann from 1. FC Köln missed a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box after a corner.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after Andréas Hountondji concedes.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Linton Maina replaces Jan Thielmann.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at FC St. Pauli Hamburg 0, 1. FC Köln 0.
39
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Mathias Pereira Lage from FC St. Pauli Hamburg shoots with his right foot from outside the box.
36
Update Update
Fouled by Mathias Pereira Lage of FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
36
Update Update
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson from 1. FC Köln won a free kick in defense.
35
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Lars Ritzka of FC St. Pauli Hamburg takes a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but it's saved in the top left corner by Marvin Schwäbe of 1. FC Köln. The assist came from Jackson Irvine's cross.
33
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Marvin Schwäbe concedes.
33
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Marvin Schwäbe concedes.
31
Update Update
Andréas Hountondji of FC St. Pauli Hamburg is flagged for offside.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after a concession by Jackson Irvine.
27
Attempt Attempt
Eric Martel's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Jakub Kaminski.
24
Update Update
Alessio Castro-Montes of 1. FC Köln won a free kick in defense.
24
Update Update
Alessio Castro-Montes of 1. FC Köln won a free kick in defense.
21
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Sebastian Sebulonsen concedes.
19
Update Update
Danel Sinani of FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in defense.
19
Update Update
Foul committed by Alessio Castro-Montes of 1. FC Köln.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Alessio Castro-Montes of 1. FC Köln.
15
Update Update
Danel Sinani from FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in the attacking area.
10
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg is awarded a corner after Jan Thielmann concedes it.
10
Update Update
New attacking attempt. Andréas Hountondji of FC St. Pauli Hamburg heads the ball from close range, but Marvin Schwäbe, the goalkeeper for 1. FC Köln, makes a save in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Tomoya Ando.
10
Corner Corner
Tomoya Ando from FC St. Pauli Hamburg missed a chance, heading the ball from the center of the box high and wide to the right. The assist came from Danel Sinani, who delivered a cross after a corner.
9
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Mathias Pereira Lage from FC St. Pauli Hamburg shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high and wide to the right.
7
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity for 1. FC Köln. Saïd El Mala's right-footed shot from the center of the box goes high and wide to the right, assisted by Ragnar Ache after a quick break.
6
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Alessio Castro-Montes of 1. FC Köln shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high and wide to the right.
5
Attempt Attempt
Jakub Kaminski's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.

CONCLUSION

St. Pauli's 1-1 draw against FC Köln exemplifies their tactical maturity, turning a goalless first half into a hard-earned point through second-half resolve. As the stronger outfit, they capitalized on even possession to neutralize Köln's edge, avoiding market-expected defeat. Without disruptions like reds, the match's purity revealed St. Pauli's home fortitude and Köln's profligacy. This outcome boosts St. Pauli's confidence amid a significant deviation from norms, positioning them well for upcoming fixtures while Köln rue missed opportunities. The result reinforces balanced competition in the Bundesliga.

St. Pauli vs FC Köln preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.