St. Pauli vs FC Köln Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
FC Köln KOESTANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
In a gripping Bundesliga encounter at Millerntor-Stadion, St. Pauli battled to a 1-1 draw against FC Köln, maintaining their unbeaten home record. The first half was a tactical stalemate, ending 0-0 with possession split nearly evenly at 49% for the hosts and 51% for the visitors. Köln struck first in the second half, but St. Pauli responded swiftly through disciplined counter-attacks and clinical finishing, showcasing their resilience as the stronger team on paper. No red cards marred the contest, allowing both sides to express their strategies freely. The even keel of the game highlighted St. Pauli's defensive solidity and Köln's inability to convert slight dominance into victory. This result underscores St. Pauli's growing threat in the league, denying Köln crucial away points.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Significant 71.2% structural deviation favored St. Pauli in the draw.
- Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with expectations across both halves.
- xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment verification with outcome.
- Market alignment: Market views misaligned as draw defied pre-match favoritism toward FC Köln.
- xG expectations: Null xG figures left expectations unassessed for either team.
- Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
- Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to the game's natural progression.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
M. Jöllenbeck
Other match officials
J. Weickenmeier
1st Assistant
C. Gittelmann
2nd Assistant
F. Bickel
4th Official


Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
St. Pauli
FC KölnMovement
Changes since opening
St. Pauli
FC KölnTeam Power Ranking
i
18.41
15.79
St. Pauli
FC KölnForm Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.


Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
St. Pauli
FC Köln

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
St. Pauli ⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency 
Defensive Efficiency 
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)




Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
St. Pauli ⚠ Proxy
St. Pauli FC Köln
St. Pauli FC Köln
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
St. Pauli
St. Pauli FC Köln


St. Pauli FC Köln


PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- PAU had peak pressure around 36'.
- KOE started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.


Match Record 
Goals 
Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:02:56+00:00
STARTING XI
St. Pauli
FC Köln





















































General Information
Next Match

St. Pauli
vs

Heidenheim
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion

FC Köln
vs

Bayer 04 Leverkusen
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: RheinEnergieStadion
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
St. PauliManager ▼

Starting XI ▼














Substitutes ▼



Bench ▼






FC KölnManager ▼

Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼




Events
CONCLUSION
St. Pauli vs FC Köln preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
How We Build This Analysis
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Match Commentary