St. Mirren vs Livingston Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
The Smisa Stadium Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premiership
St. Mirren STM
0 Winner 2
Livingston LIV
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 34 2nd Phase
|
Goal
Scott Pittman - 81'
Alex Gogic - 67' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

St. Mirren faced Livingston at home in the Scottish Premiership, suffering a 0-2 defeat despite dominating possession with 63% to the visitors' 37%. The first half ended goalless at 0-0, setting up a tense second period where Livingston scored twice to secure the win. As the stronger team on paper, St. Mirren struggled to convert their territorial advantage into meaningful chances, allowing Livingston to thrive on counter-attacks. No red cards were issued, and the match proceeded without major interruptions or second-half tactical adjustments. Structural deviation measured minimal at 2.1% in Livingston's favor, indicating the result stayed close to expected patterns. Efficiency remained in line with pre-match assessments, and the outcome aligned with market expectations despite the home side's control. This performance exposed St. Mirren's finishing issues while highlighting Livingston's clinical edge.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Livingston's win featured minimal structural deviation of 2.1 percent.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned fully with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No key events altered the match's progression.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to the game flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Dickinson

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Wilkie

4th Official

D. Ross

1st Assistant

S. Anderson

2nd Assistant

St. Mirren C. McLeish
C. McLeish
VS
Livingston M. Bartley
M. Bartley
0.84
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.42
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celtic Rank: L
Aberdeen Rank: W
Falkirk Rank: W
Rangers Rank: L
Dundee United Rank: L
Livingston Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: L
Hearts Rank: D
Kilmarnock Rank: L
Hibernian Rank: D
St. Mirren Rank: D
Rangers Rank: D
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 9 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Mirren
0.2%
Draw
1.92%
Away Livingston
97.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.12
12.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Mirren
Livingston
Power Score
22.12
12.88
League Position
10
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score
Livingston — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Mirren Livingston

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

St. Mirren

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Livingston

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

St. Mirren ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Livingston
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.70
15.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.68
32.70
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
St. Mirren +1.65 Efficiency Index
vs
Livingston -1.65 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
St. Mirren
Livingston
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

St. Mirren ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Livingston
Created Set-piece attacking threat
St. Mirren Livingston
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
St. Mirren Livingston
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
St. Mirren
Livingston
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
St. Mirren
vs
Livingston
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
St. Mirren Livingston
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
St. Mirren 0.24
Livingston 0.11
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
St. Mirren Livingston
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
St. Mirren 0.06
Livingston 0.00
St. Mirren
Livingston
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STM had peak pressure around 50'.
  • LIV started the game with stronger pressure.
STM Pressure LIV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STM reached the top pressure at 50' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Mirren STM Home
23 matches
Livingston LIV Away
Match Record
9
Wins
5
9
Draws
9
5
Losses
9
Goals
27
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
27
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:04:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
R. Sinclair
Scotland
27 R. Sinclair
R. King
Substitution
Jamaica
5 R. King
A. Gogić
Cyprus
13 A. Gogić
M. Freckleton
England
21 M. Freckleton
M. O'Hara
Scotland
6 M. O'Hara
J. Devaney
Substitution
England
8 J. Devaney
A. Campbell
Substitution
Scotland
16 A. Campbell
D. John
Substitution
Wales
24 D. John
K. Phillips
Republic of Ireland
88 K. Phillips
M. Mandron
France
9 M. Mandron
J. Ayunga
Substitution
Kenya
11 J. Ayunga
Pitch
J. Prior
France
28 J. Prior
R. McGowan
Australia
5 R. McGowan
D. Wilson
Scotland
27 D. Wilson
B. Kabongolo
England
23 B. Kabongolo
B. Fati
Substitution
Portugal
3 B. Fati
M. Sylla
France
24 M. Sylla
S. Arfield
Substitution
Canada
37 S. Arfield
D. Finlayson
Substitution
Northern Ireland
19 D. Finlayson
S. May
Substitution
Scotland
17 S. May
L. Smith
Scotland
15 L. Smith
J. Nouble
Substitution
England
7 J. Nouble

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 34 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
The Smisa Stadium
Capacity :
8016
Attendance :
5884
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jamie Wilkie
Douglas Ross
Scott Robert Anderson
David Dickinson

Statistics

Possession
STM
61%
LIV
39%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 1
72 Dangerous attacks 36
63 Possession 37
8 Corners 7
10 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Goal Kicks 13
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
24 Throwins 10
80 Ball Safe 70
5 Successful Dribbles 2
9 Dribble Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

104 Attacks 75

Possession

85 Successful Passes Percentage 75
12 Key Passes 2
32 Successful Long Passes 26
435 Successful Passes 227
59 Long Passes 59
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
512 Passes 304

Defensive

12 Tackles 13
46 Duels Won 49
5 Interceptions 12
1 Saves 4

Build-up

37 Total Crosses 20
9 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

13 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

27
R. Sinclair
R. Sinclair Goalkeeper
6.12
5
Richard King
Richard King Defender
6.65
7
Roland Idowu
Roland Idowu
Midfielder56'
6.52
13
Alex Gogic
Alex Gogic Defender
6.74
21
Miguel Freckleton
Miguel Freckleton Defender
7.02
6
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara Midfielder
6.82
8
Jacob Devaney
Jacob Devaney Midfielder
6.82
10
Conor McMenamin
Conor McMenamin
Attacker73'
6.71
16
Allan Campbell
Allan Campbell Midfielder
6.62
2
Jayden Richardson
Jayden Richardson
Defender73'
6.55
24
Declan John
Declan John Midfielder
6.88
3
Scott Tanser
Scott Tanser
Defender82'
6.82
9
Mikael Mandron
Mikael Mandron Attacker
6.9
11
Jonah Ayunga
Jonah Ayunga Attacker
6.68
20
Jake Young
Jake Young
Attacker56'
6.46
88
Killian Phillips
Killian Phillips Attacker
6.86
Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

28
Jérôme Prior
Jérôme Prior Goalkeeper
6.8
5
Ryan McGowan
Ryan McGowan Defender
6.6
23
Brooklyn Kabongolo
Brooklyn Kabongolo Defender
6.78
27
Danny Wilson
Danny Wilson Defender
6.55
3
Babacar Fati
Babacar Fati Midfielder
6.5
26
Cristian Montano
Cristian Montano
Defender40'
6.7
19
Danny Finlayson
Danny Finlayson Midfielder
6.76
2
Cammy Kerr
Cammy Kerr
Defender77'
6.76
24
Mohamad Sylla
Mohamad Sylla Midfielder
6.79
37
Scott Arfield
Scott Arfield Midfielder
6.58
8
Scott Pittman
Scott Pittman
Attacker64'
6.72
7
Joel Nouble
Joel Nouble Attacker
6.9
9
Robbie Muirhead
Robbie Muirhead
Attacker64'
6.79
15
Lewis Smith
Lewis Smith Attacker
6.8
17
Stevie May
Stevie May Attacker
6.82
25
Macaulay Tait
Macaulay Tait
Midfielder64'
6.51

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Scott Tanser → Declan John
10th Substitution
82'
81'
Event
Scott Pittman
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
77'
Event
Cammy Kerr → Danny Finlayson
9th Substitution
Event
Conor McMenamin → Jacob Devaney
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Jayden Richardson → Allan Campbell
8th Substitution
73'
71'
Event
Robbie Muirhead
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
67'
Event
Alex Gogic
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
64'
Event
Robbie Muirhead → Joel Nouble
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Scott Pittman → Scott Arfield
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Macaulay Tait → Stevie May
6th Substitution
58'
Event
Mohamad Sylla
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Roland Idowu → Richard King
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Jake Young → Jonah Ayunga
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Allan Campbell
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
47'
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Cristian Montano → Babacar Fati
1st Substitution
Event
Alex Gogic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
31'

CONCLUSION

Livingston's 0-2 victory over possession-heavy St. Mirren (63%) underscores the value of efficiency over control. Both goals came after a 0-0 halftime, capitalizing on the home team's profligacy. With no red cards, second-half adjustments, or xG data, analysis relies on minimal 2.1% structural deviation and confirmed market alignment. Livingston's opportunistic strikes flipped the script against the stronger side, exposing St. Mirren's conversion failures. This outcome reinforces football's emphasis on precision in tighter contests, providing Livingston momentum while prompting St. Mirren to refine their attack.

St. Mirren vs Livingston preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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