St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
The Smisa Stadium Sat, 9 May - 2:00 PM
Premiership
St. Mirren STM
0 Winner 3
Kilmarnock KIL
Full Time Sat, 9 May 2:00 PM
Round 36 2nd Phase
|
Goal
Findlay Curtis - 68', 46'
Miguel Freckleton - 9' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

St. Mirren hosted Kilmarnock in a match that ended 0-3 in favor of the visitors, despite the home side controlling 59% possession. Kilmarnock took a 1-0 lead into halftime and extended their advantage with two second-half goals, showcasing clinical finishing on limited opportunities. Deemed the stronger team pre-match, Kilmarnock exploited St. Mirren's defensive lapses during transitions, while the hosts generated pressure but failed to convert. No red cards disrupted play, and the game flowed without major interruptions. This outcome reflects a significant structural deviation of 74.6%, with Kilmarnock overperforming expectations where they held just 25.4% pre-match favorability compared to St. Mirren's 47.3%. Efficiency stayed in line overall, though xG data absence limits chance quality insights. St. Mirren's dominance in ball retention yielded no goals, underscoring conversion issues.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kilmarnock recorded a significant 74.6% structural deviation with their 0-3 victory.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment did not hold as Kilmarnock exceeded projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations cannot be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No key events like second-half adjustments altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Robertson

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Spence

1st Assistant

Scotland

C. Rae

2nd Assistant

Scotland

L. Wilson

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.77
Yellow cards / match 3.13
Red cards / match 0.19
Penalties / match 0.21
St. Mirren C. McLeish
C. McLeish
VS
Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
0.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.88
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: 58 L
Livingston Rank: 53 L
Celtic Rank: 78 L
Aberdeen Rank: 60 W
Falkirk Rank: 66 W
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: 64 W
Aberdeen Rank: 58 L
Dundee Rank: 59 D
Hibernian Rank: 68 L
Livingston Rank: 55 W
Hearts Rank: 75 W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 16 - 26
26

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Mirren
47.29%
Draw
27.27%
Away Kilmarnock
25.44%

Movement

Changes since opening
St. Mirren
+46.8%
Draw
+25.36%
Kilmarnock
-72.16%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
55.45
57.97
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Mirren
Kilmarnock
Power Score
55.45
57.97
League Position
10
11
Global Rank
636
559

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Mirren Kilmarnock

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

St. Mirren

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kilmarnock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

St. Mirren ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kilmarnock
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.83
27.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.44
24.83
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
St. Mirren -0.25 Efficiency Index
vs
Kilmarnock +0.25 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
St. Mirren
Kilmarnock
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

St. Mirren ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kilmarnock
Created Set-piece attacking threat
St. Mirren Kilmarnock
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
St. Mirren Kilmarnock
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
St. Mirren
Kilmarnock
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
St. Mirren
vs
Kilmarnock
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
St. Mirren Kilmarnock
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
St. Mirren 0.23
Kilmarnock 0.40
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
St. Mirren Kilmarnock
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
St. Mirren 0.12
Kilmarnock 0.00
St. Mirren
Kilmarnock
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STM had peak pressure around 55'.
  • STM started the game with stronger pressure.
STM Pressure KIL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STM reached the top pressure at 55' (86.14).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 56 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Mirren STM Home
56 matches
Kilmarnock KIL Away
Match Record
14
Wins
26
16
Draws
16
26
Losses
14
Goals
59
Goals Scored
68
68
Goals Conceded
59
-9
Goal Difference
+9

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:02:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
R. Sinclair
Scotland
27 R. Sinclair
M. Fraser
Scotland
22 M. Fraser
L. Donnelly
Northern Ireland
4 L. Donnelly
M. Freckleton
England
21 M. Freckleton
M. O'Hara
Substitution
Scotland
6 M. O'Hara
J. Devaney
England
8 J. Devaney
A. Campbell
Substitution
Scotland
16 A. Campbell
C. McMenamin
Substitution
Northern Ireland
10 C. McMenamin
R. Idowu
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
7 R. Idowu
M. Mandron
France
9 M. Mandron
K. Phillips
Republic of Ireland
88 K. Phillips
Pitch
M. Stryjek
Poland
1 M. Stryjek
D. Thompson
England
3 D. Thompson
R. Deas
Scotland
6 R. Deas
G. Stanger
New Zealand
14 G. Stanger
M. Schjonning-Larsen
Substitution
Estonia
21 M. Schjonning-Larsen
T. Lowery
England
18 T. Lowery
A. Tshibola
DR Congo
36 A. Tshibola
G. Kiltie
Substitution
Scotland
11 G. Kiltie
N. Serghei Clescenco
Substitution
Moldova
20 N. Serghei Clescenco
J. Hugill
Substitution
England
44 J. Hugill
F. Curtis
Substitution
Scotland
52 F. Curtis

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 36 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
The Smisa Stadium
Capacity :
8016
Attendance :
7619
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Don Robertson
Calum Spence
Chris Rae
Lloyd Wilson

Statistics

Possession
STM
57%
KIL
43%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 4
53 Dangerous attacks 25
59 Possession 41
1 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Successful Dribbles 6
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
6 Goal Kicks 8
19 Throwins 19
5 Substitutions 5
10 Dribble Attempts 15
82 Ball Safe 78
0 Assists 2
3 Goal Attempts 7

Attacking

107 Attacks 65
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

33 Successful Long Passes 36
527 Successful Passes 344
66 Long Passes 69
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
616 Passes 427
86 Successful Passes Percentage 81
8 Key Passes 8

Defensive

7 Interceptions 12
13 Tackles 14
41 Duels Won 43
2 Saves 2

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 15
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

11 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Don Robertson

Starting XI ▼

27
R. Sinclair
R. Sinclair Goalkeeper
4
Liam Donnelly
Liam Donnelly Defender
21
Miguel Freckleton
Miguel Freckleton Defender
22
Marcus Fraser
Marcus Fraser Defender
6
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara Midfielder
20
Jake Young
Jake Young
Attacker46'
8
Jacob Devaney
Jacob Devaney Midfielder
10
Conor McMenamin
Conor McMenamin Midfielder
3
Scott Tanser
Scott Tanser
Defender14'
16
Allan Campbell
Allan Campbell Midfielder
2
Jayden Richardson
Jayden Richardson
Defender46'
7
Roland Idowu
Roland Idowu Attacker
32
Luke Douglas
Luke Douglas
Attacker74'
9
Mikael Mandron
Mikael Mandron Attacker
88
Killian Phillips
Killian Phillips Attacker
Referee : Don Robertson

Starting XI ▼

1
Maksymilian Stryjek
Maksymilian Stryjek Goalkeeper
3
Dominic Thompson
Dominic Thompson Defender
6
Robbie Deas
Robbie Deas Defender
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Defender
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Michael Schjönning-Larsen Defender
5
Lewis Mayo
Lewis Mayo
Defender54'
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie Midfielder
7
Rory McKenzie
Rory McKenzie
Midfielder79'
18
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery Midfielder
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Midfielder
20
Nicky Clescenco
Nicky Clescenco Attacker
12
David Watson
David Watson
Midfielder46'
44
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Attacker
19
Bruce Anderson
Bruce Anderson
Attacker79'
52
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis Attacker
2
16
Kyle Magennis
Kyle Magennis
Midfielder87'

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Kyle Magennis → Findlay Curtis
10th Substitution
79'
Event
Bruce Anderson → Joe Hugill
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Rory McKenzie → Greg Kiltie
9th Substitution
Event
Luke Douglas → Roland Idowu
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Richard King → Scott Tanser
6th Substitution
69'
68'
Event
Findlay Curtis
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Killian Phillips
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
54'
54'
Event
Lewis Mayo → Michael Schjönning-Larsen
5th Substitution
52'
Event
Joe Hugill
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jayden Richardson → Allan Campbell
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Jake Young → Mark O'Hara 
4th Substitution
46'
46'
Event
David Watson → Nicky Clescenco
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Findlay Curtis
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Roland Idowu
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
Event
Liam Donnelly
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
15'
Event
Scott Tanser → Conor McMenamin
1st Substitution
14'
9'
Event
Miguel Freckleton
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal

Match Commentary

87
Update Update
Kyle Magennis is on, and Findlay Curtis is off.
86
Attempt Attempt
Rory McKenzie takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
Dominic Thompson takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Tshibola takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Liam Donnelly's right-footed shot is blocked.
80
Attempt Attempt
Killian Phillips takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
79
Substitution Substitution
Bruce Anderson is substituted for Joe Hugill.
79
Update Update
Rory McKenzie replaces Greg Kiltie.
75
Attempt Attempt
Luke Douglas takes a left-footed shot but misses.
74
Substitution Substitution
Luke Douglas is substituted for Roland Idowu.
69
Update Update
Richard King comes on for Scott Tanser.
68
Attempt Attempt
Findlay Curtis scores with a right-footed shot.
66
Attempt Attempt
Findlay Curtis takes a left-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Tshibola takes a left-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Joe Hugill takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
David Watson takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
54
Update Update
Lewis Mayo is on, and Michael Schjonning Larsen is off.
51
Attempt Attempt
Roland Idowu takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Killian Phillips takes a left-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Killian Phillips takes a left-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Killian Phillips takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Attempt Attempt
Findlay Curtis scores with a right-footed shot.
46
Update Update
David Watson replaces Nicky Clescenco.
46
Update Update
Jayden Richardson comes on for Allan Campbell.
46
Substitution Substitution
Jake Young is substituted for Mark O'Hara.
43
Attempt Attempt
Allan Campbell's left-footed shot is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Mandron attempts a header but misses the shot.
41
Attempt Attempt
Mark O'Hara takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Roland Idowu takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Nicky Clescenco's right-footed shot is blocked.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Roland Idowu receives a yellow card.
25
Attempt Attempt
Roland Idowu takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
14
Update Update
Scott Tanser replaces Conor McMenamin.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Liam Donnelly makes it 0-1.

CONCLUSION

Kilmarnock's 0-3 win over St. Mirren confirms their stronger pre-match standing, turning 41% possession into maximum efficiency against a dominant but goalless home side. The halftime 0-1 score set the tone, with second-half goals amplifying the margin. A 74.6% structural deviation highlights Kilmarnock's overachievement beyond the 25.4% pre-match projection, while market misalignment underscores the surprise element. Absent xG data prevents precise chance evaluation, yet the scoreline reveals St. Mirren's possession (59%) failed to produce threats. No red cards ensured a clean structural flow, emphasizing Kilmarnock's tactical discipline and finishing prowess in securing a decisive result.

St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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