St. Mirren vs Dundee United Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
The Smisa Stadium Sun, 17 May - 1:00 PM
Premiership
St. Mirren STM
1 – 1
Dundee United DUD
Full Time Sun, 17 May 1:00 PM
Round 38 2nd Phase
Jake Young - 69'
Goal
|
Goal
Zachary Sapsford - 27'

CONTEXT

St. Mirren welcomed Dundee United to a contest that concluded with a 1-1 draw after Dundee United had taken a 0-1 lead into the interval. The visitors controlled slightly more possession at 51 percent compared to the hosts 49 percent yet neither side could force a decisive advantage. Dundee United entered as the stronger side on paper but the final outcome reflected a balanced affair with both teams trading opportunities throughout the second period. The absence of any red cards allowed for uninterrupted tactical adjustments as the match progressed toward its conclusion. St. Mirren mounted pressure after the break to level the score while Dundee United maintained defensive structure to secure the point. Overall the game showcased measured approaches from both sides without major disruptions to the expected flow of play.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dundee United recorded a significant structural deviation of 73.6 percent from pre-match patterns.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed team performances across both halves.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data remained unavailable preventing any direct alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved inconsistent with pre-match projections for the fixture.
  • xG expectations: No recorded xG expectations were available to compare against the actual outcome.
  • Event impact: The second half produced key adjustments that shaped the eventual 1-1 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were shown leaving game flow free of any related distortion.
  • Market: St. Mirren 41.9% (Δ+27.4%) | Draw 26.4% (Δ-47.3%) | Dundee United 31.7% (Δ+19.9%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. McLean

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Anderson

1st Assistant

Scotland

G. McCabe

2nd Assistant

Scotland

G. Soutar

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.39
Yellow cards / match 4.02
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.29
St. Mirren C. McLeish
C. McLeish
VS
Dundee United J. Goodwin
J. Goodwin
0.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aberdeen Rank: 60 W
Kilmarnock Rank: 58 L
Dundee Rank: 58 L
Livingston Rank: 53 L
Celtic Rank: 80 L
Aberdeen Rank: 58 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Livingston Rank: 54 D
Aberdeen Rank: 59 L
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 L
Dundee Rank: 58 W
Livingston Rank: 54 W
Rangers Rank: 75 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 13 - 22
22

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Mirren
41.93%
Draw
26.4%
Away Dundee United
31.66%

Movement

Changes since opening
St. Mirren
+27.42%
Draw
-47.3%
Dundee United
+19.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.58
60.74
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Mirren
Dundee United
Power Score
56.58
60.74
League Position
10
7
Global Rank
594
457

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score
Dundee United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Mirren Dundee United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

St. Mirren

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dundee United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

St. Mirren ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
St. Mirren Dundee United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
St. Mirren Dundee United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
St. Mirren
Dundee United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
St. Mirren
vs
Dundee United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
St. Mirren Dundee United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
St. Mirren 0.00
Dundee United 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
St. Mirren Dundee United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
St. Mirren 0.00
Dundee United 0.00
St. Mirren
Dundee United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • DUD had peak pressure around 50'.
  • STM started the game with stronger pressure.
STM Pressure DUD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DUD reached the top pressure at 50' (73.96).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 45 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Mirren STM Home
45 matches
Dundee United DUD Away
Match Record
10
Wins
22
13
Draws
13
22
Losses
10
Goals
48
Goals Scored
65
65
Goals Conceded
48
-17
Goal Difference
+17

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T12:45:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
R. Sinclair
Scotland
27 R. Sinclair
M. Fraser
Substitution
Scotland
22 M. Fraser
A. Gogić
Cyprus
13 A. Gogić
M. Freckleton
Substitution
England
21 M. Freckleton
J. Richardson
England
2 J. Richardson
M. O'Hara
Substitution
Scotland
6 M. O'Hara
A. Campbell
Scotland
16 A. Campbell
R. Idowu
Republic of Ireland
7 R. Idowu
S. Tanser
Substitution
England
3 S. Tanser
L. Douglas
Substitution
Scotland
32 L. Douglas
J. Young
England
20 J. Young
Pitch
D. Richards
Wales
25 D. Richards
K. Keresztes
Hungary
23 K. Keresztes
R. Graham
Scotland
6 R. Graham
S. Harding
Substitution
Scotland
37 S. Harding
K. Gilligan
43 K. Gilligan
P. Pereira Camará
Guinea-Bissau
8 P. Pereira Camará
C. Sibbald
Substitution
Scotland
14 C. Sibbald
V. Ševelj
Croatia
5 V. Ševelj
R. Strain
Substitution
Australia
2 R. Strain
Z. Sapsford
Substitution
Australia
9 Z. Sapsford
M. Watters
Substitution
England
36 M. Watters

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 38 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
The Smisa Stadium
Capacity :
8016
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Steven McLean
Scott Robert Anderson
Gordon McCabe
Greg Soutar

Statistics

Possession
STM
50%
DUD
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 3
67 Dangerous attacks 23
49 Possession 51
10 Corners 2
10 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Assists 1
6 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
24 Throwins 15
18 Dribble Attempts 16
10 Successful Dribbles 8
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
7 Goal Kicks 4
9 Goal Attempts 6
46 Ball Safe 51

Attacking

122 Attacks 88

Possession

32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
44 Long Passes 65
445 Passes 487
78 Successful Passes Percentage 81
14 Successful Long Passes 27
349 Successful Passes 393
12 Key Passes 4

Defensive

7 Interceptions 6
40 Duels Won 47
12 Tackles 17
2 Saves 6

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 3
26 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

4 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

27
R. Sinclair
R. Sinclair Goalkeeper
6.65
13
Alex Gogic
Alex Gogic Defender
6.76
21
Miguel Freckleton
Miguel Freckleton Defender
7.01
38
Thomas Falconer
Thomas Falconer
Defender46'
22
Marcus Fraser
Marcus Fraser Defender
6.75
5
Richard King
Richard King
Defender66'
6.67
2
Jayden Richardson
Jayden Richardson Midfielder
6.54
3
Scott Tanser
Scott Tanser Midfielder
6.8
17
Jalmaro Calvin
Jalmaro Calvin
Attacker66'
6.36
6
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara Midfielder
6.8
8
Jacob Devaney
Jacob Devaney
Midfielder46'
6.87
7
Roland Idowu
Roland Idowu Midfielder
6.56
16
Allan Campbell
Allan Campbell Midfielder
6.78
20
Jake Young
Jake Young Attacker
6.45
32
Luke Douglas
Luke Douglas Attacker
6.66
—
Luke Douglas
85'
Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

25
Dave Richards
Dave Richards Goalkeeper
6.75
6
Ross Graham
Ross Graham Defender
6.97
23
Krisztián Keresztes
Krisztián Keresztes Defender
6.97
37
S. Harding
S. Harding Defender
6.37
10
Julius Eskesen
Julius Eskesen
Midfielder59'
6.6
2
Ryan Strain
Ryan Strain Midfielder
6.61
39
Scott Constable
Scott Constable
Midfielder66'
6.48
5
Vicko Sevelj
Vicko Sevelj Midfielder
6.84
8
Panutche Camara
Panutche Camara Midfielder
6.79
14
Craig Sibbald
Craig Sibbald Midfielder
6.83
3
Bert Esselink
Bert Esselink
Defender74'
6.74
43
Keir Gilligan
Keir Gilligan Midfielder
9
Zachary Sapsford
Zachary Sapsford Attacker
6.76
34
Owen Stirton
Owen Stirton
Defender74'
6.46
36
Max Watters
Max Watters Attacker
6.66
77
Johnny Russell
Johnny Russell
Attacker59'
6.54

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Caiden McMillan → Luke Douglas
10th Substitution
85'
74'
Event
Bert Esselink → Craig Sibbald
8th Substitution
74'
Event
Owen Stirton → Zachary Sapsford
9th Substitution
Event
Jake Young
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
69'
Event
Jalmaro Calvin → Scott Tanser
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Richard King → Marcus Fraser
7th Substitution
66'
66'
Event
Scott Constable → Ryan Strain
6th Substitution
60'
Event
Ryan Strain
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
Event
Julius Eskesen → S. Harding
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Johnny Russell → Max Watters
4th Substitution
Event
Jacob Devaney → Mark O'Hara 
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Thomas Falconer → Miguel Freckleton
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
27'
Event
Zachary Sapsford
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
20'
Event
S. Harding
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Var
19'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Jalmaro Calvin has a shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jake Young takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Roland Idowu takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Richard King takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Jalmaro Calvin takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Jake Young takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Roland Idowu takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Falconer takes a left-footed shot, but it hits the post.
85
Update Update
Caiden McMillan is on, and Luke Douglas is off.
83
Attempt Attempt
Julius Eskesen takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
77
Attempt Attempt
Luke Douglas takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
75
Attempt Attempt
Johnny Russell takes a left-footed shot but misses.
74
Substitution Substitution
Owen Stirton is substituted for Zachary Sapsford.
74
Update Update
Bert Esselink replaces Craig Sibbald.
69
Attempt Attempt
Jake Young takes a left-footed shot and scores.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jake Young scores, making it 1-1.
68
Attempt Attempt
Luke Douglas takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
66
Update Update
Scott Constable is on, and Ryan Strain is off.
66
Update Update
Jalmaro Calvin replaces Scott Tanser.
66
Update Update
Richard King replaces Marcus Fraser.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ryan Strain receives a yellow card.
59
Substitution Substitution
Johnny Russell is substituted for Max Watters.
59
Substitution Substitution
Julius Eskesen is substituted off for Samuel Harding.
57
Attempt Attempt
Zachary Sapsford takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Fraser takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Luke Douglas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Vicko Sevelj's header is saved.
46
Update Update
Thomas Falconer replaces Miguel Freckleton.
46
Update Update
Jacob Devaney comes on for Mark OHara.
40
Attempt Attempt
Alexandros Gogic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Craig Sibbald takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Zachary Sapsford takes a right-footed shot and scores.
19
Update Update
The goal is disallowed after a VAR review for offside.
7
Attempt Attempt
Jayden Richardson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Luke Douglas takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw between St. Mirren and Dundee United delivered a competitive result that mirrored the even nature of possession and chance creation on display. Dundee United struck first before the break but St. Mirren responded effectively after the restart to restore parity. With no dismissals to alter the dynamics both teams retained full squads for the duration allowing tactical plans to unfold without interruption. The stronger side on paper could not convert its status into victory yet earned a valuable away point through disciplined defending. This outcome highlights how second half resilience can overcome an early deficit in tightly contested matches. Observers noted steady adjustments that prevented either side from gaining a lasting upper hand leading to a fair share of the spoils.

St. Mirren vs Dundee United preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.