St. Mirren vs Dundee United Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
The Smisa Stadium Sun, 17 May - 1:00 PM
Premiership
St. Mirren STM
Versus
Dundee United DUD
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 1:00 PM
Round 38 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

St. Mirren welcome Dundee United to The Smisa Stadium for this Premiership 2nd Phase encounter in the 2025/2026 season. The hosts languish in 10th place, four spots below their visitors who occupy 7th. Dundee United boast a clear edge in underlying strength, with a power score of 60.96 to St. Mirren's 56.8, translating to a 4.2-point advantage. Recent form tilts slightly towards the home side at 11.11 versus 9.11, though both teams enter without recent outings noted. Lacking detailed xG data, analysis leans on broader metrics showing Dundee United as the stronger outfit overall. St. Mirren will rely on home advantage to bridge the gap, while Dundee aim to capitalize on superior power ratings in a tightly contested mid-table scrap.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Dundee United possess a 4.2-point power advantage with a score of 60.96 over St. Mirren's 56.8.
  • Form: St. Mirren lead in form scores at 11.11 compared to Dundee United's 9.11.
  • Squad: Dundee United sit higher in the league table at 7th versus St. Mirren's 10th.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for either team.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable in current dataset.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG information.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables not provided for analysis.
  • Market: St. Mirren 43% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.2% (Δ+0%) | Dundee United 29.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
St. Mirren C. McLeish
C. McLeish
VS
Dundee United J. Goodwin
J. Goodwin
0.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aberdeen Rank: 60 W
Kilmarnock Rank: 58 L
Dundee Rank: 58 L
Livingston Rank: 53 L
Celtic Rank: 79 L
Aberdeen Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Livingston Rank: 54 D
Aberdeen Rank: 59 L
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 L
Dundee Rank: 58 W
Livingston Rank: 54 W
Rangers Rank: 75 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 13 - 22
22
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Mirren
42.99%
Draw
27.21%
Away Dundee United
29.8%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.8
60.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Mirren
Dundee United
Power Score
56.8
60.96
League Position
10
7
Global Rank
588
459

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score
Dundee United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Mirren Dundee United

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 45 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Mirren STM Home
45 matches
Dundee United DUD Away
Match Record
10
Wins
22
13
Draws
13
22
Losses
10
Goals
48
Goals Scored
65
65
Goals Conceded
48
-17
Goal Difference
+17

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T01:05:54+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
R. Sinclair
27 R. Sinclair
M. Fraser
22 M. Fraser
A. Gogić
13 A. Gogić
L. Donnelly
4 L. Donnelly
R. King
5 R. King
J. Devaney
8 J. Devaney
M. O'Hara
6 M. O'Hara
A. Campbell
16 A. Campbell
M. Freckleton
21 M. Freckleton
M. Mandron
9 M. Mandron
K. Phillips
88 K. Phillips
Pitch
D. Richards
25 D. Richards
B. Esselink
3 B. Esselink
R. Graham
6 R. Graham
S. Harding
37 S. Harding
W. Ferry
11 W. Ferry
P. Pereira Camará
8 P. Pereira Camará
V. Ševelj
5 V. Ševelj
R. Strain
2 R. Strain
Z. Sapsford
9 Z. Sapsford
J. Russell
77 J. Russell
N. Farrugia
20 N. Farrugia

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 38 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
The Smisa Stadium
Capacity :
8016
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Steven McLean
Scott Robert Anderson
Gordon McCabe
Greg Soutar

Expected Lineup

Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

27
R. Sinclair
R. Sinclair Goalkeeper
6.65
21
Miguel Freckleton
Miguel Freckleton Midfielder
7.01
5
Richard King
Richard King Midfielder
6.67
9
Mikael Mandron
Mikael Mandron Attacker
6.9
88
Killian Phillips
Killian Phillips Attacker
6.87
8
Jacob Devaney
Jacob Devaney Central Midfield
6.87
22
Marcus Fraser
Marcus Fraser Right Back
6.75
13
Alex Gogic
Alex Gogic Centre Back
6.76
4
Liam Donnelly
Liam Donnelly Left Back
6.91
6
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara Central Midfield
6.8
16
Allan Campbell
Allan Campbell Central Midfield
6.78
Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

25
Dave Richards
Dave Richards Goalkeeper
6.75
2
Ryan Strain
Ryan Strain Midfielder
6.61
11
Will Ferry
Will Ferry Midfielder
7.26
9
Zachary Sapsford
Zachary Sapsford Attacker
6.76
20
N. Farrugia
N. Farrugia Attacker
6.73
77
Johnny Russell
Johnny Russell Centre Forward
6.54
3
Bert Esselink
Bert Esselink Left Back
6.74
37
S. Harding
S. Harding Right Back
6.37
6
Ross Graham
Ross Graham Centre Back
6.97
5
Vicko Sevelj
Vicko Sevelj Central Midfield
6.84
8
Panutche Camara
Panutche Camara Central Midfield
6.79

CONCLUSION

Dundee United arrive as marginal favourites thanks to superior power metrics and a better league standing, despite St. Mirren's slight form edge and home backing at The Smisa Stadium. The 4.2-point gulf suggests the visitors control key underlying dynamics, potentially decisive in a scrappy affair. Without granular xG or set-piece insights, expect a cagey battle where Dundee's strength shines through. St. Mirren must maximize early momentum to counter the threat, but projections lean towards a narrow Dundee edge in this mid-table Premiership tussle.

St. Mirren vs Dundee United preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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