St. Mirren vs Aberdeen Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland

The Smisa Stadium Sat, 4 Apr - 2:00 PM

Premiership

St. Mirren STM

Aberdeen ABE

Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 2:00 PM

Round 32 Regular Season

Alex Gogic - 83'

Jonah Ayunga - 40'

CONTEXT

The match between St. Mirren and Aberdeen has officially finished, with the home side claiming a narrow 1-0 victory at full-time. St. Mirren established their lead early, taking a 1-0 advantage into the half-time break, and successfully protected that margin until the final whistle. Heading into the fixture, St. Mirren were the pre-match favorites with a 46.1% implied probability of winning, alongside a 28% chance of a draw and a 25.9% likelihood of an Aberdeen upset. The final outcome aligned perfectly with the pre-match market. However, clinching the victory still required a significant deviation effort of 53.9% from St. Mirren to overcome their opponents. On the pitch, the hosts dictated the tempo, controlling 57% of the possession compared to Aberdeen’s 43%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the final scoreline aligned with the underlying chance quality. The contest proceeded smoothly without any red cards to disrupt either team's tactical shape. Ultimately, the overall efficiency shift remained entirely in line with projections, ensuring the stronger side secured the expected win.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: St. Mirren showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

N. Walsh

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Connor

1st Assistant

D. McFarlane

2nd Assistant

E. Anderson

4th Official

C. McLeish

S. Robinson

0.72

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.16

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

15 - 18 - 24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

St. Mirren

46.14%

Draw

27.95%

Aberdeen

25.9%

Team Power Ranking

58.45

55.84

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

St. Mirren

Aberdeen

Power Score

58.45

55.84

League Position

Global Rank

517

598

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score

Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Mirren Aberdeen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

St. Mirren

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Aberdeen

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

St. Mirren ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Aberdeen

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

23.42

19.53

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

19.53

23.42

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

St. Mirren +0.37 Efficiency Index

Aberdeen -0.37 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

St. Mirren

Aberdeen

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

St. Mirren ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Aberdeen

Created Set-piece attacking threat

St. Mirren Aberdeen

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

St. Mirren Aberdeen

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

St. Mirren

Aberdeen

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

St. Mirren

Aberdeen

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

St. Mirren Aberdeen

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

St. Mirren Aberdeen

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

St. Mirren

Aberdeen

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 57 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Mirren STM Home

57 matches

Aberdeen ABE Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-25

Goal Difference

+25

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:03:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2

Match Formation 3-4-3

1 S. George

4 L. Donnelly

13 A. Gogić

21 M. Freckleton

6 M. O'Hara

88 K. Phillips

8 J. Devaney

16 A. Campbell

24 D. John

11 J. Ayunga

9 M. Mandron

99 P. Worre Bråtveit

21 G. Molloy

23 L. Morrison

22 J. Milne

77 E. Gyamfi

4 G. Shinnie

32 A. Aremu

28 A. Jensen

14 K. Bilalovic

27 M. Lazetić

81 T. Keskinen

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 04, 2026, 02:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 32 · Regular Season

Stadium :

The Smisa Stadium

Capacity :

8016

Attendance :

7653

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

N. Walsh

Frank Connor

Daniel McFarlane

Euan Anderson

Statistics

Possession

STM

57%

ABE

43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0

1 Big Chances Created 0

4 Shots 0

47 Dangerous attacks 28

57 Possession 43

8 Corners 5

15 Free kicks 8

1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 5

60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25

15 Successful Headers 12

8 Goal Kicks 9

5 Dribble Attempts 16

15 Throwins 31

1 Hit Woodwork 0

84 Ball Safe 73

3 Successful Dribbles 4

1 Assists 0

Attacking

111 Attacks 76

1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

7 Key Passes 5

80 Successful Passes Percentage 76

467 Passes 342

374 Successful Passes 261

35 Successful Long Passes 19

67 Long Passes 58

52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

49 Duels Won 41

0 Saves 2

19 Interceptions 14

16 Tackles 18

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 17

7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 1

8 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : N. Walsh

Manager ▼

C. McLeish Coach

Starting XI ▼

Shamal George Goalkeeper

Liam Donnelly Defender

Alex Gogic Defender

Miguel Freckleton Defender

Mark O'Hara Midfielder

J. Devaney Midfielder

A. Campbell Midfielder

Declan John Midfielder

Scott Tanser

Defender59'

Killian Phillips Midfielder

Dan N'Lundulu

Attacker59'

Mikael Mandron Attacker

Jonah Ayunga Attacker

Jayden Richardson

Defender68'

Substitutes ▼

Dan N'Lundulu

Attacker59'

Scott Tanser

Defender59'

Jayden Richardson

Defender68'

Bench ▼

Ryan Mullen Goalkeeper

Richard King Defender

Roland Idowu Midfielder

Conor McMenamin Attacker

J. Young Attacker

Kion Etete Attacker

Referee : N. Walsh