St. Gallen vs Lugano Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Kybunpark Tue, 17 Mar - 6:00 PM
Super League
St. Gallen St. Gallen
1 – 1
Lugano Lugano
Full Time Tue, 17 Mar 6:00 PM
Christian Witzig - 15'
Goal
|
Goal
Renato Steffen - 90+2'
|
Second yellow card Daniel Dos Santos 64'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. St. Gallen 1–1 Lugano. The match ended in a draw. St. Gallen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 39%–61%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: St. Gallen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
St. Gallen E. Maaßen
E. Maaßen
VS
Lugano M. Croci-Torti
M. Croci-Torti
1.7
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.92
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Basel Rank: 63 W
Thun Rank: 65 D
Winterthur Rank: 44 W
Servette Rank: 60 D
Winterthur Rank: 46 W
Grasshopper Rank: 52 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Luzern Rank: 56 L
Sion Rank: 59 W
Grasshopper Rank: 51 L
Lausanne Sport Rank: 60 W
Basel Rank: 65 D
Servette Rank: 60 D
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 9 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Gallen
47.33%
Draw
25.96%
Away Lugano
26.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.39
62.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Gallen
Lugano
Power Score
63.39
62.1
League Position
2
3
Global Rank
353
390

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Gallen — Opponent-weighted form score
Lugano — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Gallen Lugano

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

St. Gallen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lugano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

St. Gallen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lugano
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.62
18.93
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.93
34.62
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
St. Gallen +1.40 Efficiency Index
vs
Lugano -1.40 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
St. Gallen
Lugano
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

St. Gallen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lugano
Created Set-piece attacking threat
St. Gallen Lugano
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
St. Gallen Lugano
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
St. Gallen
Lugano
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Gallen St. Gallen Home
41 matches
Lugano Lugano Away
Match Record
14
Wins
18
9
Draws
9
18
Losses
14
Goals
56
Goals Scored
61
61
Goals Conceded
56
-5
Goal Difference
+5

Data last updated: 2026-03-18T00:03:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
L. Ati-Zigi
Ghana
1 L. Ati-Zigi
T. Gaal
Germany
26 T. Gaal
J. Stanic
Croatia
4 J. Stanic
C. Okoroji
Germany
36 C. Okoroji
L. Daschner
Germany
10 L. Daschner
H. Vandermersch
France
28 H. Vandermersch
L. Görtler
Substitution
Germany
16 (C) L. Görtler
C. Boukhalfa
Germany
11 C. Boukhalfa
C. Witzig
Switzerland
7 C. Witzig
D. Besio
Substitution
Switzerland
69 D. Besio
A. Balde
Substitution
Senegal
14 A. Balde
Pitch
D. von Ballmoos
Switzerland
16 D. von Ballmoos
H. Delcroix
Belgium
3 H. Delcroix
L. Mai
Germany
17 L. Mai
A. Papadopoulos
Substitution
Germany
6 A. Papadopoulos
M. Zanotti
Italy
46 M. Zanotti
A. Grgic
Substitution
Switzerland
8 A. Grgic
U. Bislimi
Switzerland
25 U. Bislimi
Y. Cimignani
Substitution
France
21 Y. Cimignani
D. dos Santos Correia
Switzerland
27 D. dos Santos Correia
G. Koutsias
Substitution
Greece
9 G. Koutsias
R. Steffen
Switzerland
11 (C) R. Steffen

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 17, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadium :
Kybunpark
Capacity :
19456
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Hüseyin Sanli
Pascal Hirzel
Anojen Kanagasingam
Mirco Bürgi

Statistics

Possession
St. Gallen
41%
Lugano
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 2
50 Dangerous attacks 31
39 Possession 61
5 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

9 Goal Attempts 10
75 Ball Safe 110
5 Goal Kicks 15
11 Dribble Attempts 17
18 Successful Dribbles Percentage 41
2 Successful Dribbles 7
18 Throwins 14
1 Assists 0
3 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 0
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

89 Attacks 88
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
8 Key Passes 8
74 Successful Passes Percentage 84
333 Passes 530
247 Successful Passes 444
64 Long Passes 76
20 Successful Long Passes 36

Defensive

5 Interceptions 8
17 Tackles 10
2 Saves 2

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 8
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
8 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Anojen Kanagasingam

Starting XI ▼

1
Lawrence Ati Zigi
Lawrence Ati Zigi Goalkeeper
6.63
4
Jozo Stanic
Jozo Stanic Defender
7.07
26
Tom Gaal
Tom Gaal Defender
6.5
36
Chima Okoroji
Chima Okoroji Defender
6.83
7
Christian Witzig
Christian Witzig Midfielder
7.68
10
Lukas Daschner
Lukas Daschner Midfielder
6.86
11
Carlo Boukhalfa
Carlo Boukhalfa Midfielder
6.28
16
Lukas Görtler
Lukas Görtler (C) Midfielder
6.81
64
Mihailo Stevanovic
Mihailo Stevanovic
Midfielder77'
6.53
28
Hugo Vandermersch
Hugo Vandermersch Midfielder
6.7
14
Aliou Baldé
Aliou Baldé Attacker
6.58
77
Tiemoko Ouattara
Tiemoko Ouattara
Attacker77'
6.35
69
Diego Besio
Diego Besio Attacker
6.88
21
Malamine Efekele
Malamine Efekele
Attacker90'
Referee : Anojen Kanagasingam

Starting XI ▼

16
David von Ballmoos
David von Ballmoos Goalkeeper
6.77
3
Hannes Delcroix
Hannes Delcroix Defender
6.68
6
Antonios Papadopoulos
Antonios Papadopoulos Defender
7.06
10
Mattia Bottani
Mattia Bottani
Attacker82'
6.61
17
Lukas Mai
Lukas Mai Defender
7.13
8
Anto Grgic
Anto Grgic Midfielder
7.01
4
Damian Kelvin
Damian Kelvin
Defender90'
21
Yanis Cimignani
Yanis Cimignani Midfielder
6.69
18
Hicham Mahou
Hicham Mahou
Midfielder68'
6.6
25
Uran Bislimi
Uran Bislimi Midfielder
7.08
46
Mattia Zanotti
Mattia Zanotti Midfielder
6.66
9
Georgios Koutsias
Georgios Koutsias Attacker
6.63
24
Elias Pihlström
Elias Pihlström
Attacker68'
6.59
11
Renato Steffen
Renato Steffen (C) Attacker
7.68
27
Daniel Dos Santos
Daniel Dos Santos Attacker
5.75

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Renato Steffen
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Malamine Efekele → Diego Besio
6th Substitution
90'
90'
Event
Damian Kelvin → Anto Grgic
7th Substitution
Event
Diego Besio
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
84'
82'
Event
Mattia Bottani → Antonios Papadopoulos
5th Substitution
Event
Tiemoko Ouattara → Aliou Baldé
3rd Substitution
77'
Event
Mihailo Stevanovic → Lukas Görtler
4th Substitution
77'
68'
Event
Elias Pihlström → Georgios Koutsias
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Hicham Mahou → Yanis Cimignani
1st Substitution
64'
Event
Daniel Dos Santos
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
57'
Event
Anto Grgic
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
51'
Event
Daniel Dos Santos
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
37'
Event
Antonios Papadopoulos
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Lukas Daschner
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
33'
Event
Christian Witzig
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
15'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: St. Gallen exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

St. Gallen vs Lugano preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Super League, Switzerland View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ