Sporting Gijón vs Ceuta Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal El Molinón Sun, 3 May - 2:15 PM
La Liga 2
Sporting Gijón SPO
1 Winner 2
Ceuta Ceuta
Full Time Sun, 3 May 2:15 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Gaspar Campos - 30'
Goal
|
Goal
Konrad de la Fuente - 28'
Andrés Cuenca - 25' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

Sporting Gijón hosted Ceuta in a match that ended 1-2 in favor of the visitors, with all goals coming in the first half where the score reached the same final tally of 1-2 at halftime. Despite being the stronger team and playing at home, Sporting Gijón managed only 46% possession against Ceuta's 54%. No red cards were shown to either side, and the second half passed without significant adjustments or changes in momentum. Ceuta's victory represents a notable upset, as pre-match expectations heavily favored the home side with a 62.8% implied probability of winning compared to Ceuta's 15.6%. The result highlights defensive resilience from Ceuta and a failure by Sporting Gijón to capitalize on their status. Possession was closely contested, but Ceuta converted their opportunities more effectively in the opening period.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Ceuta's victory marked a significant 84.4% structural deviation from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match assessments for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome did not align with pre-market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout elements impacted the result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Sánchez Villalobos

Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Tejero García

1st Assistant

?. Munuera Montero

2nd Assistant

N. Holgueras Castellanos

4th Official

Sporting Gijón B. Jiménez Sáez
B. Jiménez Sáez
VS
Ceuta J. Romero Gil
J. Romero Gil
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Córdoba Rank: 62 L
Cádiz Rank: 57 W
Burgos Rank: 68 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 60 W
Racing Santander Rank: 71 L
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 69 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Racing Santander Rank: 70 D
Real Zaragoza Rank: 58 D
Real Sociedad II Rank: 60 D
SD Eibar Rank: 70 L
Burgos Rank: 67 D
Cádiz Rank: 57 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sporting Gijón
62.83%
Draw
21.54%
Away Ceuta
15.63%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sporting Gijón
+62.36%
Draw
+12%
Ceuta
-74.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.58
56.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sporting Gijón
Ceuta
Power Score
63.58
56.88
League Position
12
11
Global Rank
373
433

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sporting Gijón — Opponent-weighted form score
Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sporting Gijón Ceuta

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sporting Gijón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ceuta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sporting Gijón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ceuta
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.89
34.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.44
24.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sporting Gijón -0.95 Efficiency Index
vs
Ceuta +0.95 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Gijón
Ceuta
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sporting Gijón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ceuta
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sporting Gijón Ceuta
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sporting Gijón Ceuta
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Gijón
Ceuta
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sporting Gijón
vs
Ceuta
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sporting Gijón Ceuta
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sporting Gijón 0.18
Ceuta 0.53
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sporting Gijón Ceuta
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sporting Gijón 0.06
Ceuta 0.02
Sporting Gijón
Ceuta
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Ceuta had peak pressure around 15'.
  • Ceuta started the game with stronger pressure.
SPO Pressure Ceuta Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Ceuta reached the top pressure at 15' (72.24).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sporting Gijón SPO Home
1 matches
Ceuta Ceuta Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
1
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:04:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
O. Yáñez Alabart
Spain
1 O. Yáñez Alabart
G. Rosas Alonso
Spain
2 G. Rosas Alonso
P. Vázquez Pérez
Substitution
Spain
15 P. Vázquez Pérez
A. Cuenca Cejudo
Spain
44 A. Cuenca Cejudo
D. Sánchez Pérez
Substitution
Spain
5 D. Sánchez Pérez
M. Rodríguez Paz
Substitution
Spain
36 M. Rodríguez Paz
J. Smith
British Virgin Islands
24 J. Smith
C. Gelabert Pina
Substitution
Spain
10 C. Gelabert Pina
A. Corredera Alardi
Spain
14 A. Corredera Alardi
G. Campos Ansó Fernández
Spain
7 G. Campos Ansó Fernández
J. Dubasin
Belgium
17 J. Dubasin
Pitch
G. Vallejo Delgado
Spain
13 G. Vallejo Delgado
C. Redruello Nimo
Substitution
Spain
16 C. Redruello Nimo
Y. Bodiger
France
14 Y. Bodiger
C. Hernández Alarcón
Spain
6 C. Hernández Alarcón
A. Ahmed Ahmed
Spain
7 A. Ahmed Ahmed
M. Illescas Montaño
Spain
12 M. Illescas Montaño
Y. Didi
Morocco
5 Y. Didi
J. Zalazar Martínez
Substitution
Spain
8 J. Zalazar Martínez
K. De La Fuente
Substitution
United States
18 K. De La Fuente
M. Fernández Sánchez
Spain
9 M. Fernández Sánchez
A. Bassinga
Substitution
26 A. Bassinga

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Municipal El Molinón
Capacity :
30000
Attendance :
14451
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Roberto Tejero García
José Antonio Sánchez Villalobos
Ángel Munuera Montero
Néstor Holgueras Castellanos

Statistics

Possession
SPO
47%
Ceuta
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 4
49 Dangerous attacks 32
46 Possession 54
6 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 16
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

75 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
22 Throwins 12
3 Goal Kicks 12
66 Ball Safe 83
8 Dribble Attempts 14
6 Goal Attempts 10
0 Assists 1
6 Successful Dribbles 5
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

130 Attacks 95
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

441 Passes 539
349 Successful Passes 455
52 Long Passes 62
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
22 Successful Long Passes 30
79 Successful Passes Percentage 84
7 Key Passes 12

Defensive

16 Tackles 11
11 Interceptions 11
43 Duels Won 44
8 Saves 2

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 9
5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

16 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : José Antonio Sánchez Villalobos

Starting XI ▼

1
Rubén Yáñez
Rubén Yáñez Goalkeeper
6.79
2
Guille Rosas
Guille Rosas Defender
6.89
5
Diego Sánchez
Diego Sánchez Defender
6.7
3
Pablo García
Pablo García
Defender46'
6.47
15
Pablo Vázquez
Pablo Vázquez Defender
6.98
23
Eric Curbelo
Eric Curbelo
Defender46'
6.96
44
Andrés Cuenca
Andrés Cuenca Defender
6.75
7
Gaspar Campos
Gaspar Campos Midfielder
6.8
10
César Gelabert
César Gelabert Midfielder
7.1
11
Dani Queipo
Dani Queipo
Attacker62'
6.59
14
Àlex Corredera
Àlex Corredera Midfielder
7.07
24
Justin Smith
Justin Smith Midfielder
6.61
36
Manu Rodríguez
Manu Rodríguez Midfielder
6.63
18
Amadou Coundoul
Amadou Coundoul
Attacker72'
6.65
17
Jonathan Dubasin
Jonathan Dubasin Attacker
7.11
Referee : José Antonio Sánchez Villalobos

Starting XI ▼

13
Guillermo Vallejo
Guillermo Vallejo Goalkeeper
6.9
6
Carlos Hernández
Carlos Hernández Defender
6.85
7
Aisar Ahmed
Aisar Ahmed Defender
6.67
14
Yann Bodiger
Yann Bodiger Defender
6.63
16
Carlos Redru
Carlos Redru Defender
6.35
17
Gonzalo Almenara
Gonzalo Almenara
Defender90'
6.42
5
Youness Lachhab
Youness Lachhab Midfielder
6.74
8
Kuki Zalazar
Kuki Zalazar Midfielder
6.89
20
José Campaña
José Campaña
Midfielder90'
6.79
12
Marino Illescas
Marino Illescas Midfielder
6.87
9
Marcos Fernández
Marcos Fernández Attacker
6.89
18
Konrad de la Fuente
Konrad de la Fuente Attacker
6.68
27
Marc Domènech
Marc Domènech
Attacker63'
6.63
26
Aboubacar Bassinga
Aboubacar Bassinga Attacker
6.52
25
Salvi
Salvi
Attacker46'
6.58

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
José Campaña → Kuki Zalazar
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Gonzalo Almenara → Carlos Redru
9th Substitution
Event
Miguel Conde → Dani Queipo
8th Substitution
79'
75'
Event
Marcos Fernández
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Dani Queipo
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Amadou Coundoul → Manu Rodríguez
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Justin Smith
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
69'
68'
Event
José Matos → Marc Domènech
6th Substitution
63'
Event
Marc Domènech → Konrad de la Fuente
5th Substitution
Event
Dani Queipo → César Gelabert
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Pablo García → Diego Sánchez
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Eric Curbelo → Pablo Vázquez
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Salvi → Aboubacar Bassinga
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Marino Illescas
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
43'
Event
Aboubacar Bassinga
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Guille Rosas
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
35'
Event
Pablo Vázquez
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
32'
Event
Gaspar Campos
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
30'
28'
Event
Konrad de la Fuente
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
25'
Event
Andrés Cuenca
Header / 1st Own Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Gonzalo Almenara replaces Carlos Redruello.
90
Substitution Substitution
Jose Angel Gomez Campana comes on for Jose Luis Zalazar Martinez. Kuki is also substituted in.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jose Angel Gomez Campana takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Youness Lachhab takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Fernandez Sanchez takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Salvi Sanchez's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Salvi Sanchez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Salvi Sanchez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Eric Curbelo takes a shot, but it's blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Fernandez Sanchez attempts a header but misses the shot.
81
Attempt Attempt
Jose Matos takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
79
Update Update
Miguel Conde replaces Dani Queipo.
77
Attempt Attempt
Allexandre Corredera Alardi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
77
Attempt Attempt
Dani Queipo's left-footed shot is blocked.
73
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Redruello takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Update Update
Amadou Coundoul is on, and Miguel Rocha is off.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Justin Smith receives a yellow card.
69
Update Update
Jose Matos is on, and Marc Domenech is off.
63
Update Update
Marc Domenech is on, and Konrad de la Fuente is off.
62
Update Update
Dani Queipo is on, and Cesar Gelabert is off.
58
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Rocha takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Dubasin takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Pablo Garcia Carrasco is on, and DSalvi Sanchez is off.
46
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Fernandez Sanchez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Salvi Sanchez comes on for Aboubacar Bassinga.
46
Update Update
Eric Curbelo comes on for Pablo Vazquez Perez.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marino Illescas receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Konrad de la Fuente takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aboubacar Bassinga receives a yellow card.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Guillermo Rosas Alonso receives a yellow card.
30
Update Update
Goal! Campos scores, making it 1-2.
30
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Campos Gaspar with his left foot results in a goal.
30
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Campos Gaspar with his left foot results in a goal.
28
Attempt Attempt
Konrad de la Fuente scores with a left-footed shot.
26
Update Update
Own goal by Andres Cuenca puts the score at 0-1.
25
Attempt Attempt
Konrad de la Fuente takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Dubasin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Aboubacar Bassinga takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Jose Luis Zalazar Martinez, known as Kuki, takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
8
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Fernandez Sanchez takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
6
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Campos Gaspar with his right foot is blocked.
2
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Redruello takes a left-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos.

CONCLUSION

Ceuta's 1-2 triumph over stronger home side Sporting Gijón underscores the unpredictability of football, particularly with all action confined to the first half. Sporting Gijón's 46% possession failed to translate into goals after halftime, allowing Ceuta to defend their lead stoutly. The significant deviation from pre-match favoritism for the hosts highlights Ceuta's clinical finishing and tactical discipline. Absent xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but the possession split suggests Ceuta maximized their 54% share efficiently. This result serves as a reminder that underdogs can exploit early opportunities, leaving Sporting Gijón to reflect on missed chances in a scoreline that flattered neither side's dominance.

Sporting Gijón vs Ceuta preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

La Liga 2, Spain View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Ronny Breivik

Read ronnyB’s Best Previews posts for matchday analysis, odds movement insights, football previews, and value-focused fixture coverage.