Sporting Charleroi vs Standard Liège Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade du Pays de Charleroi Sat, 18 Apr - 4:15 PM
Pro League
Sporting Charleroi SPC
1 Winner 2
Standard Liège STL
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 4:15 PM
Round 3 Conference League Play-off Group
Antoine Bernier - 62'
Goal
|
Goal
Tobias Mohr - 90+3'
Bernard Nguene - 68'

CONTEXT

Sporting Charleroi faced Standard Liège in a Belgian Pro League match, resulting in a 2-1 victory for the away side. Charleroi held 59% possession to Standard Liège's 41% but could not translate control into a win. The first half ended 0-0, with both teams unable to break the deadlock. Second-half action saw Standard Liège score twice while Charleroi netted once, clinching the result for the pre-identified stronger team. No red cards disrupted play, and no notable second-half adjustments occurred. Pre-match projections assigned Charleroi 48.3% win probability, draw 27.4%, and Standard Liège 24.4%, leading to a significant 75.6% deviation favoring the winner. Efficiency shift aligned with expectations, though xG metrics remain unavailable for further evaluation.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Standard Liège's win marked a significant 75.6% structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment false as outcome diverged from pre-match probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout tie influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in the match outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Van Driessche

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

K. Clerkx

4th Official

Y. De Neve

1st Assistant

Q. Blaise

2nd Assistant

Sporting Charleroi H. Cornelis
H. Cornelis
VS
Standard Liège V. Euvrard
V. Euvrard
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.45
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antwerp Rank: W
Westerlo Rank: L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: L
OH Leuven Rank: L
Dender Rank: D
Club Brugge Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Westerlo Rank: L
OH Leuven Rank: W
Westerlo Rank: D
Antwerp Rank: D
Zulte-Waregem Rank: W
La Louvière Rank: D
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 13 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sporting Charleroi
48.25%
Draw
27.37%
Away Standard Liège
24.38%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sporting Charleroi
+48.06%
Draw
+22.79%
Standard Liège
-70.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.11
23.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sporting Charleroi
Standard Liège
Power Score
16.11
23.78
League Position
11
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sporting Charleroi — Opponent-weighted form score
Standard Liège — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sporting Charleroi Standard Liège

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sporting Charleroi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Standard Liège

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sporting Charleroi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Standard Liège
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.64
22.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.68
23.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sporting Charleroi +0.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Standard Liège -0.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Charleroi
Standard Liège
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sporting Charleroi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Standard Liège
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sporting Charleroi Standard Liège
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sporting Charleroi Standard Liège
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Charleroi
Standard Liège
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sporting Charleroi
vs
Standard Liège
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sporting Charleroi Standard Liège
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sporting Charleroi 0.31
Standard Liège 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sporting Charleroi Standard Liège
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sporting Charleroi 0.08
Standard Liège 0.03
Sporting Charleroi
Standard Liège
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SPC had peak pressure around 61'.
  • STL started the game with stronger pressure.
SPC Pressure STL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SPC reached the top pressure at 61' (65.84).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 48 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sporting Charleroi SPC Home
48 matches
Standard Liège STL Away
Match Record
11
Wins
24
13
Draws
13
24
Losses
11
Goals
43
Goals Scored
74
74
Goals Conceded
43
-31
Goal Difference
+31

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:05:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
M. Kone
France
30 M. Kone
L. Blum
Substitution
Switzerland
27 L. Blum
A. Ousou
Sweden
4 A. Ousou
C. keita
France
95 C. keita
M. Nzita
Belgium
24 M. Nzita
E. Camara
Substitution
France
5 E. Camara
A. Boukamir
Belgium
56 A. Boukamir
K. Van Den Kerkhof
Algeria
3 K. Van Den Kerkhof
P. Pflücke
Substitution
Germany
14 P. Pflücke
A. Bernier
Belgium
17 A. Bernier
A. Colassin
Substitution
Belgium
25 A. Colassin
Pitch
L. Epolo Matthieu
Belgium
1 L. Epolo Matthieu
J. Homawoo
Togo
24 J. Homawoo
D. Bates
Scotland
4 D. Bates
I. Hautekiet
Belgium
25 I. Hautekiet
G. Mortensen
Substitution
Denmark
3 G. Mortensen
M. Ilaimaharitra
Substitution
Madagascar
23 M. Ilaimaharitra
C. Nielsen
Denmark
94 C. Nielsen
H. Lawrence
England
18 H. Lawrence
R. Said Ahamada
Substitution
Comoros
17 R. Said Ahamada
D. Eckert Ayensa
Substitution
Germany
10 D. Eckert Ayensa
A. Adnane
Belgium
11 A. Adnane

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 3 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium :
Stade du Pays de Charleroi
Capacity :
15000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bram Van Driessche
K. Clerkx
Yves De Neve
Q. Blaise

Statistics

Possession
SPC
57%
STL
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 3
39 Dangerous attacks 26
59 Possession 41
6 Corners 4
8 Free kicks 11
4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 1
1 Injuries 2
11 Goal Attempts 4
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 30
10 Dribble Attempts 10
22 Throwins 20
5 Successful Dribbles 3
4 Substitutions 4
70 Ball Safe 87
2 Goal Kicks 11

Attacking

104 Attacks 60

Possession

26 Successful Long Passes 16
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
7 Key Passes 6
406 Successful Passes 274
53 Long Passes 47
84 Successful Passes Percentage 79
482 Passes 347

Defensive

17 Tackles 12
7 Interceptions 10
41 Duels Won 45
0 Saves 3

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 12
6 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

11 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Bram Van Driessche

Starting XI ▼

30
Mohamed Koné
Mohamed Koné Goalkeeper
6.94
4
Aiham Ousou
Aiham Ousou Defender
6.85
24
Mardochée Nzita
Mardochée Nzita Defender
6.72
27
Lewin Blum
Lewin Blum Defender
6.63
45
Y. Cisse
Y. Cisse
Midfielder84'
6.63
95
Check Keita
Check Keita Defender
6.72
3
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof Midfielder
6.74
5
Étienne Camara
Étienne Camara Midfielder
6.89
40
Yassine Khalifi
Yassine Khalifi
Midfielder70'
6.68
14
Patrick Pflücke
Patrick Pflücke Midfielder
6.81
8
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Midfielder84'
6.73
17
Antoine Bernier
Antoine Bernier Midfielder
6.8
56
Amine Boukamir
Amine Boukamir Midfielder
6.86
25
Antoine Colassin
Antoine Colassin Attacker
6.63
21
Aurélien Scheidler
Aurélien Scheidler
Attacker60'
6.5
Referee : Bram Van Driessche

Starting XI ▼

1
Matthieu Epolo
Matthieu Epolo Goalkeeper
7.09
4
David Bates
David Bates Defender
6.93
24
Josué Homawoo
Josué Homawoo Defender
6.88
25
Ibe Hautekiet
Ibe Hautekiet Defender
6.89
3
Gustav Julius Mortensen
Gustav Julius Mortensen Midfielder
6.69
7
Tobias Mohr
Tobias Mohr
Midfielder87'
6.93
18
Henry Lawrence
Henry Lawrence Midfielder
6.71
23
Marco Ilaimaharitra
Marco Ilaimaharitra Midfielder
6.71
20
Ibrahim Karamoko
Ibrahim Karamoko
Defender17'
6.71
94
Casper Nielsen
Casper Nielsen Midfielder
6.77
10
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
Dennis Eckert Ayensa Attacker
6.72
59
Timothé Nkada
Timothé Nkada
Attacker67'
6.48
11
Adnane Abid
Adnane Abid Attacker
6.81
17
Rafiki Saïd
Rafiki Saïd Attacker
6.86
26
Bernard Nguene
Bernard Nguene
Attacker67'
6.6

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Casper Nielsen
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Tobias Mohr
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
87'
Event
Tobias Mohr → Gustav Julius Mortensen
8th Substitution
Event
Y. Cisse → Lewin Blum
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas → Patrick Pflücke
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Lewin Blum
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Yassine Khalifi → Étienne Camara
5th Substitution
70'
68'
Event
Bernard Nguene
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
67'
Event
Bernard Nguene → Rafiki Saïd
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Timothé Nkada → Dennis Eckert Ayensa
4th Substitution
Event
Antoine Bernier
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
62'
Event
Aurélien Scheidler → Antoine Colassin
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Étienne Camara
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
54'
Event
Mardochée Nzita
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
Event
Aiham Ousou
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
48'
1ST-HALF
17'
Event
Ibrahim Karamoko → Marco Ilaimaharitra
1st Substitution

CONCLUSION

Standard Liège demonstrated superior second-half execution to overcome possession disadvantage and secure a 2-1 win at Sporting Charleroi. The result reflects a significant deviation from projections where home win was most probable at 48.3%. With 41% possession, visitors capitalized efficiently, aligning with identified strength. Lack of xG data limits performance depth analysis, but no red cards or events altered dynamics. Charleroi's higher control yielded only one goal, exposing conversion issues. This outcome reinforces Standard Liège's resilience against favored opposition.

Sporting Charleroi vs Standard Liège preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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