Sporting Charleroi vs OH Leuven Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium

Stade du Pays de Charleroi Sat, 14 Mar - 3:00 PM

Pro League

Sporting Charleroi SPC

OH Leuven OHL

Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 3:00 PM

Noë Dussenne - 74'

Óscar Gil - 70'

CONTEXT

The match between Sporting Charleroi and OH Leuven has finished, with OH Leuven securing a surprising 2-0 away victory. After a tightly contested first half that ended in a 0-0 deadlock, the visitors managed to break through and claim all three points in the second period. This outcome represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, engineered entirely by OH Leuven. Sporting Charleroi entered the contest as the clear favorites with a 51.7% implied win probability, while OH Leuven stood at a mere 22.5%, alongside a 25.8% chance of a draw. Consequently, the away victory completely defied the pre-match market, resulting in a major upset by the underdog. Despite their home defeat, Sporting Charleroi largely dictated the flow of the game, holding 64% possession compared to OH Leuven's 36%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined whether the final score aligned with the actual quality of chances created. However, the overall efficiency shift was ultimately in line with baseline projections. The match proceeded evenly from a disciplinary standpoint, as no red cards were issued to impact either team's tactical approach.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: OH Leuven showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

J. Vergoote

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Tiesters

2nd Assistant

A. Letellier

4th Official

M. Seeldraeyers

1st Assistant

H. Cornelis

F. Mazzù

1.22

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

5 - 8 - 8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Sporting Charleroi

51.7%

Draw

25.79%

OH Leuven

22.51%

Team Power Ranking

69.88

65.81

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Sporting Charleroi

OH Leuven

Power Score

69.88

65.81

League Position

Global Rank

183

276

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Sporting Charleroi — Opponent-weighted form score

OH Leuven — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sporting Charleroi OH Leuven

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Sporting Charleroi

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

OH Leuven

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sporting Charleroi ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy OH Leuven

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

34.30

31.25

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

31.25

34.30

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Sporting Charleroi +0.28 Efficiency Index

OH Leuven -0.28 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Sporting Charleroi

OH Leuven

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sporting Charleroi

OH Leuven

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Sporting Charleroi OH Leuven

Set-piece xG Share

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

+0.00 vs +0.00

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Sporting Charleroi OH Leuven

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

Sporting Charleroi

OH Leuven

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sporting Charleroi SPC Home

13 matches

OH Leuven OHL Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-5

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:05:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

30 M. Kone

27 L. Blum

4 (C) A. Ousou

95 C. keita

24 M. Nzita

22 Y. Titraoui

5 E. Camara

14 P. Pflücke

8 J. Romsaas

10 P. Guiagon

21 A. Scheidler

16 M. Prévôt

34 R. Nyakossi

3 N. Dussenne

28 (C) E. Pletinckx

30 T. Akimoto

4 B. Verstraete

24 Ł. Łakomy

27 Ó. Gil Regaño

14 H. Teklab

10 Y. Maziz

19 C. Ikwuemesi

General Information

Date & Time :

Mar 14, 2026, 03:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium

Stadium :

Stade du Pays de Charleroi

Capacity :

15000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Jasper Vergoote

Martijn Tiesters

Anthony Letellier

Michele Seeldraeyers

Statistics

Possession

SPC

60%

OHL

40%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2

0 Big Chances Created 2

5 Shots 5

59 Dangerous attacks 25

64 Possession 36

10 Corners 3

15 Free kicks 6

1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

3 Goal Kicks 11

14 Successful Headers 13

59 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

18 Throwins 26

86 Ball Safe 75

2 Hit Woodwork 0

3 Substitutions 5

17 Dribble Attempts 12

10 Successful Dribbles 6

0 Assists 1

7 Goal Attempts 3

Attacking

98 Attacks 78

0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 69

361 Successful Passes 175

16 Key Passes 8

51 Long Passes 62

57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39

437 Passes 252

29 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

13 Interceptions 13

10 Tackles 13

3 Saves 4

Build-up

37 Total Crosses 11

10 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

6 Fouls 11

1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Jasper Vergoote

Manager ▼

H. Cornelis Coach

Starting XI ▼

Mohamed Koné Goalkeeper

6.7

Aiham Ousou (C) Defender

7.16

Mardochée Nzita Defender

6.52

Lewin Blum Defender

6.97

Check Keita Defender

6.73

Filip Szymczak

Attacker83'

6.49

Étienne Camara Midfielder

6.95

Antoine Bernier

Attacker83'

6.83

Jakob Napoleon Romsaas Midfielder

6.95

Parfait Guiagon Midfielder

7.23

Patrick Pflücke Midfielder

7.84

Yassine Titraoui Midfielder

7.31

Aurélien Scheidler Attacker

6.79

Antoine Colassin

Attacker65'

6.48

Substitutes ▼

Antoine Colassin

Attacker65'

6.48

Antoine Bernier

Attacker83'

6.83

Filip Szymczak

Attacker83'

6.49

Bench ▼

Martin Delavallée Goalkeeper

Jules Gaudin Defender

Mehdi Boukamir Defender

Yassine Khalifi Midfielder

Y. Cisse Midfielder

Amine Boukamir Midfielder

Referee : Jasper Vergoote