Sporting Charleroi vs Genk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade du Pays de Charleroi Sat, 2 May - 4:15 PM
Pro League
Sporting Charleroi SPC
2 Winner 0
Genk GNK
Full Time Sat, 2 May 4:15 PM
Round 6 Conference League Play-off Group
Parfait Guiagon - 69' (P)
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof - 55'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Sporting Charleroi secured a 2-0 victory over pre-designated stronger side Genk in a balanced encounter. The halftime score stood at 0-0, reflecting the even possession split of 49% to Charleroi and 51% to Genk. Despite Genk's perceived superiority, Charleroi's backline remained unbreached, while their attackers delivered both goals in the second half. This outcome showcased minimal structural deviation at 2.1%, staying true to market alignments without red card interruptions or major tactical shifts. Efficiency metrics held steady in line with norms, though xG data absence limits deeper chance quality insights. Charleroi's disciplined approach turned a stalemate into a statement win, frustrating Genk's slight territorial dominance. The result cements Charleroi's home resilience against favored visitors.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sporting Charleroi recorded minimal structural deviation of 2.1%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Final result fully aligned with pre-match market view.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable without metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events altered proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Visser

Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Wyns

1st Assistant

T. Nijssen

2nd Assistant

K. Van Damme

4th Official

Sporting Charleroi M. Kohnen
M. Kohnen
VS
Genk N. Hayen
N. Hayen
1.18
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.52
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
OH Leuven Rank: 65 W
Genk Rank: 77 D
Standard Liège Rank: 68 L
Antwerp Rank: 69 W
Westerlo Rank: 71 L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Standard Liège Rank: 69 D
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 69 D
Westerlo Rank: 71 W
OH Leuven Rank: 66 D
Antwerp Rank: 72 W
La Louvière Rank: 64 D
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 13 - 21
21

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sporting Charleroi
97.89%
Draw
1.92%
Away Genk
0.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.46
76.17
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sporting Charleroi
Genk
Power Score
71.46
76.17
League Position
11
7
Global Rank
176
96

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sporting Charleroi — Opponent-weighted form score
Genk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sporting Charleroi Genk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sporting Charleroi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Genk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sporting Charleroi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.51
38.33
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.33
25.51
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sporting Charleroi -1.21 Efficiency Index
vs
Genk +1.21 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Charleroi
Genk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sporting Charleroi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sporting Charleroi Genk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sporting Charleroi Genk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Charleroi
Genk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sporting Charleroi
vs
Genk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sporting Charleroi Genk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sporting Charleroi 0.37
Genk 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sporting Charleroi Genk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sporting Charleroi 0.00
Genk 0.07
Sporting Charleroi
Genk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SPC had peak pressure around 71'.
  • SPC started the game with stronger pressure.
SPC Pressure GNK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SPC reached the top pressure at 71' (81.79).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 49 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sporting Charleroi SPC Home
49 matches
Genk GNK Away
Match Record
15
Wins
21
13
Draws
13
21
Losses
15
Goals
61
Goals Scored
78
78
Goals Conceded
61
-17
Goal Difference
+17

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:05:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Kone
France
30 M. Kone
L. Blum
Substitution
Switzerland
27 L. Blum
A. Ousou
Sweden
4 A. Ousou
C. keita
France
95 C. keita
M. Nzita
Substitution
Belgium
24 M. Nzita
E. Camara
Substitution
France
5 E. Camara
Y. Khalifi
Morocco
40 Y. Khalifi
K. Van Den Kerkhof
Algeria
3 K. Van Den Kerkhof
J. Romsaas
Substitution
Norway
8 J. Romsaas
A. Bernier
Substitution
Belgium
17 A. Bernier
A. Scheidler
France
21 A. Scheidler
Pitch
L. Kiaba Mounganga
Belgium
28 L. Kiaba Mounganga
J. Kayembe Ditu
Belgium
18 J. Kayembe Ditu
J. Ndenge Kongolo
Belgium
44 J. Ndenge Kongolo
M. Smets
Belgium
6 M. Smets
Z. El Ouahdi
Morocco
77 Z. El Ouahdi
B. Heynen
Substitution
Belgium
8 B. Heynen
I. Bangoura
Guinea
21 I. Bangoura
N. Adedeji-Sternberg
Substitution
Belgium
32 N. Adedeji-Sternberg
D. Heymans
Substitution
Belgium
38 D. Heymans
J. Ito
Substitution
Japan
10 J. Ito
A. Bibout
Substitution
Cameroon
23 A. Bibout

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 6 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium :
Stade du Pays de Charleroi
Capacity :
15000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Lawrence Visser
Ruben Wyns
Thibaud Nijssen
Kevin Van Damme

Statistics

Possession
SPC
48%
GNK
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 4
11 Shots 17
30 Dangerous attacks 51
49 Possession 51
3 Corners 6
10 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0
8 Goal Kicks 6
12 Throwins 14
1 Injuries 0
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 24
79 Ball Safe 76
9 Dribble Attempts 17
3 Successful Dribbles 4
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
8 Goal Attempts 12
1 Assists 0

Attacking

67 Attacks 107
0 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

85 Successful Passes Percentage 88
9 Key Passes 13
357 Successful Passes 381
418 Passes 435
49 Long Passes 48
26 Successful Long Passes 31
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 65

Defensive

41 Duels Won 46
11 Interceptions 5
23 Tackles 16
4 Saves 2

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 22
4 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
14 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Lawrence Visser

Starting XI ▼

30
Mohamed Koné
Mohamed Koné Goalkeeper
6.94
4
Aiham Ousou
Aiham Ousou Defender
6.87
24
Mardochée Nzita
Mardochée Nzita Defender
6.73
23
Jules Gaudin
Jules Gaudin
Defender90+4'
6.62
27
Lewin Blum
Lewin Blum Defender
6.66
10
Parfait Guiagon
Parfait Guiagon
Attacker62'
7.22
95
Check Keita
Check Keita Defender
6.7
3
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof Midfielder
6.8
5
Étienne Camara
Étienne Camara Midfielder
6.88
22
Yassine Titraoui
Yassine Titraoui
Midfielder62'
7.12
8
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas Midfielder
6.73
32
Mehdi Boukamir
Mehdi Boukamir
Defender77'
6.44
17
Antoine Bernier
Antoine Bernier Midfielder
6.83
14
Patrick Pflücke
Patrick Pflücke
Attacker77'
6.81
40
Yassine Khalifi
Yassine Khalifi Midfielder
6.68
21
Aurélien Scheidler
Aurélien Scheidler Attacker
6.5
Referee : Lawrence Visser

Starting XI ▼

28
Lucca Brughmans
Lucca Brughmans Goalkeeper
6.65
6
Matte Smets
Matte Smets Defender
7.13
18
Joris Kayembe
Joris Kayembe Defender
6.88
44
Josué Kongolo
Josué Kongolo Defender
6.66
77
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Zakaria El Ouahdi Defender
7.19
8
Bryan Heynen
Bryan Heynen Midfielder
7.27
24
Nikolas Sattlberger
Nikolas Sattlberger
Midfielder83'
6.54
10
Junya Ito
Junya Ito Midfielder
6.97
14
Yira Sor
Yira Sor
Attacker82'
6.76
21
Ibrahima Bangoura
Ibrahima Bangoura Midfielder
6.73
32
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg Midfielder
6.79
20
Konstantinos Karetsas
Konstantinos Karetsas
Midfielder60'
6.99
38
Daan Heymans
Daan Heymans Midfielder
7.22
30
Ayumu Yokoyama
Ayumu Yokoyama
Attacker60'
6.89
23
Aaron Bibout
Aaron Bibout Attacker
6.87
29
Robin Mirisola
Robin Mirisola
Attacker60'
6.71

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jules Gaudin → Mardochée Nzita
10th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Parfait Guiagon
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
84'
83'
Event
Nikolas Sattlberger → Bryan Heynen
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Yira Sor → Junya Ito
8th Substitution
Event
Mehdi Boukamir → Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Patrick Pflücke → Antoine Bernier
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Parfait Guiagon
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
69'
Event
Mardochée Nzita
Penalty awarded
66'
Event
Parfait Guiagon → Lewin Blum
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Yassine Titraoui → Étienne Camara
5th Substitution
62'
60'
Event
Ayumu Yokoyama → Daan Heymans
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Konstantinos Karetsas → Noah Adedeji-Sternberg
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Robin Mirisola → Aaron Bibout
2nd Substitution
Event
Antoine Bernier
Simulation / 1st Yellowcard
58'
Event
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
55'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Robin Mirisola takes a shot with his head but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nikolas Sattlberger takes a header shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Konstantinos Karetsas takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Zakaria El Ouahdi takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Yira Sor's right-footed shot is saved.
90
Substitution Substitution
Jules Gaudin is substituted for Mardochee Nzita.
89
Attempt Attempt
Parfait Guiagon takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Ayumu Yokoyama's right-footed shot is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Ayumu Yokoyama takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Attempt Attempt
Zakaria El Ouahdi takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
85
Attempt Attempt
Zakaria El Ouahdi takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Parfait Guiagon receives a yellow card.
85
Attempt Attempt
Konstantinos Karetsas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Update Update
Nikolas Sattlberger comes on for Bryan Heynen.
82
Update Update
On comes Yira Sor, off goes Junya Ito.
78
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Pflucke takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Update Update
Patrick Pflucke comes on for Antoine Bernier.
77
Substitution Substitution
Mehdi Boukamir is substituted for Jakob Napoleon Romsaas.
76
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Bernier's right-footed shot is blocked.
73
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Heynen attempts a header but misses the shot.
68
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Parfait Guiagon scores, making it 2-0.
66
Update Update
Penalty confirmed after a VAR decision.
65
Attempt Attempt
Parfait Guiagon takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Bernier's right-footed shot is blocked.
62
Update Update
Parfait Guiagon replaces Lewin Blum.
62
Update Update
Yacine Titraoui comes on for Etienne Camara.
60
Update Update
Konstantinos Karetsas comes on for Noah Adedeji-Sternberg.
60
Substitution Substitution
Robin Mirisola is substituted for Aaron Bibout.
60
Update Update
Robin Mirisola is on, and Aaron Bibout is off.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Antoine Bernier receives a yellow card.
55
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
50
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Bernier takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Daan Heymans' header is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Bibout takes a left-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Bernier's right-footed shot is blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahima Sory Bangoura takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Daan Heymans takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
27
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahima Sory Bangoura takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
8
Attempt Attempt
Daan Heymans takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Sporting Charleroi's 2-0 defeat of Genk exemplifies home advantage overriding strength perceptions. Goalless at halftime amid near-even possession, Charleroi ignited post-interval with clinical strikes, exploiting Genk's wastefulness. Minimal deviation and market harmony affirm the win's contextual fit, unmarred by cards or disruptions. Efficiency consistency bolstered their edge, rendering Genk's possession moot. This boosts Charleroi's momentum, exposing Genk's need for sharper conversion. A testament to tactical poise prevailing over favoritism in compact battles.

Sporting Charleroi vs Genk preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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