Sporting Braga vs SC Freiburg Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Europa League, Europe

Estádio Municipal de Braga Thu, 30 Apr - 7:00 PM

Europa League

Sporting Braga SCB

SC Freiburg SCF

Full Time Thu, 30 Apr 7:00 PM

Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2

Mario Dorgeles - 90+2'

Demir Ege Tıknaz - 8'

Vincenzo Grifo - 16'

CONTEXT

Sporting Braga secured a 2-1 victory over SC Freiburg in the first leg of their knockout tie, taking a narrow advantage into the second leg. The score was level at 1-1 at halftime, with each team finding the net once in the opening period. Braga controlled possession at 58% to Freiburg's 42%, dictating much of the play at home. Despite SC Freiburg entering as the stronger team, Braga's clinical finishing proved decisive, particularly in the second half. No red cards were issued, ensuring both sides completed the match at full strength. This result marks a significant structural deviation, as Braga outperformed pre-match expectations. The aggregate score now stands at 2-1, setting up an intriguing return fixture where Freiburg must overturn the deficit.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Sporting Braga's win showed a significant 60.8% structural deviation from expectations.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with assessments.
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market projections.
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments notably influenced the result.
Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing no distortion to dynamics.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

A. Taylor

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Beswick

1st Assistant

A. Nunn

2nd Assistant

C. Kavanagh

4th Official

C. Vicens

J. Schuster

1.67

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

2.11

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 0 - 0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Sporting Braga

39.16%

Draw

31.29%

SC Freiburg

29.54%

Movement

Changes since opening

Sporting Braga

-56.45%

Draw

+27.09%

SC Freiburg

+29.35%

Team Power Ranking

81.57

82.03

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Sporting Braga

SC Freiburg

Power Score

81.57

82.03

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Sporting Braga — Opponent-weighted form score

SC Freiburg — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sporting Braga SC Freiburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Sporting Braga

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

SC Freiburg

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sporting Braga ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy SC Freiburg

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

28.02

27.14

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

27.14

28.02

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Sporting Braga +0.09 Efficiency Index

SC Freiburg -0.09 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Sporting Braga

SC Freiburg

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sporting Braga ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy SC Freiburg

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Sporting Braga SC Freiburg

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Sporting Braga SC Freiburg

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Sporting Braga

SC Freiburg

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Sporting Braga

SC Freiburg

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Sporting Braga SC Freiburg

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Sporting Braga SC Freiburg

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Sporting Braga

SC Freiburg

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

SCB had peak pressure around 49'.
SCB started the game with stronger pressure.

SCB Pressure SCF Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: SCB reached the top pressure at 49' (99.28).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sporting Braga SCB Home

0 matches

SC Freiburg SCF Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T00:02:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-2-1

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 L. Horníček

2 V. Gómez Perea

14 G. Lagerbielke

15 P. Rodrigues de Oliveira

6 V. Carvalho Vieira

29 G. Baptiste

8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho

34 D. Tıknaz

10 R. Zalazar Martínez

21 R. Horta

18 Pau Victor

1 N. Atubolu

33 J. Makengo

3 P. Lienhart

28 M. Ginter

29 P. Treu

44 J. Manzambi

8 M. Eggestein

32 V. Grifo

14 Y. Suzuki

19 J. Beste

31 I. Matanovic

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 30, 2026, 07:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Europa League, Europe · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2

Stadium :

Estádio Municipal de Braga

Capacity :

30286

Attendance :

27161

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Anthony Taylor

Gary Beswick

Adam Nunn

Chris Kavanagh

Statistics

Possession

SCB

58%

SCF

42%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1

3 Big Chances Created 1

5 Shots 5

65 Dangerous attacks 28

58 Possession 42

3 Corners 1

13 Free kicks 12

2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

8 Dribble Attempts 11

25 Throwins 8

11 Successful Headers 13

90 Ball Safe 98

6 Goal Attempts 7

63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27

6 Goal Kicks 6

1 Assists 1

2 Substitutions 2

1 Penalties 0

2 Injuries 1

5 Successful Dribbles 3

0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

105 Attacks 70

1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27

10 Key Passes 7

44 Long Passes 45

494 Passes 347

86 Successful Passes Percentage 81

424 Successful Passes 281

22 Successful Long Passes 12

Defensive

16 Tackles 12

46 Duels Won 40

13 Interceptions 11

1 Saves 4

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 8

4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

12 Fouls 14

2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Anthony Taylor

Manager ▼

C. Vicens Coach

Starting XI ▼

Lukas Hornicek Goalkeeper

6.84

Víctor Gómez Defender

6.82

Vítor Carvalho Defender

6.77

Gustaf Lagerbielke Defender

6.8

Paulo Oliveira Defender

6.57

João Moutinho Midfielder

6.66

Rodrigo Zalazar Midfielder

7.14

Fran Navarro

Attacker72'

6.65

Ricardo Horta Midfielder

7.09

Mario Dorgeles

Midfielder26'

6.77

Gorby Midfielder

6.72

Demir Ege Tıknaz Midfielder

6.53

Pau Víctor Attacker

6.93

Substitutes ▼

Mario Dorgeles

Midfielder26'

6.77

Fran Navarro

Attacker72'

6.65

Bench ▼

Tiago Sá Goalkeeper

6.5

Alaa Bellaarouch Goalkeeper

6.12

Leonardo Lelo Defender

6.75

Jonatás Noro Defender

Afonso Sousa Defender

Yanis da Rocha Midfielder

6.36

Vasconcelos Midfielder

Luís Teixeira Pinto Midfielder

Amine El Ouazzani Attacker

6.66

Mordomo Attacker

Referee : Anthony Taylor