Sporting Braga vs Estoril Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Municipal de Braga Sun, 3 May - 5:00 PM
Liga Portugal
Sporting Braga SCB
1 – 1
Estoril EPF
Full Time Sun, 3 May 5:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Mario Dorgeles - 23'
Goal
|
Goal
Yanis Begraoui - 79'

CONTEXT

Sporting Braga welcomed Estoril to a tense Primeira Liga clash that concluded in a 1-1 draw. The home team struck first, leading 1-0 at halftime after a promising opening period. Estoril responded effectively in the second half, leveling the score with a well-taken goal to share the spoils. Possession was perfectly balanced at 50% apiece, underscoring the tactical equilibrium throughout. As the stronger side on paper, Sporting Braga underperformed expectations, registering a significant 77.7% structural deviation. No red cards disrupted play, and no major second-half adjustments were evident. This result denies Braga a vital home win while boosting Estoril's survival hopes.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited a significant 77.7% structural deviation attributed to Sporting Braga.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment not achieved with the unexpected draw.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without corresponding data.
  • Event impact: No notable events or adjustments influenced the final outcome.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards issued, eliminating any distortion effects.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Gonçalves Rodrigues

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Pereira

1st Assistant

?. Carneiro

2nd Assistant

T. Gonçalves Rodrigues

4th Official

Sporting Braga C. Vicens
C. Vicens
VS
Estoril I. Cathro
I. Cathro
2.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.29
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Santa Clara Rank: 65 L
Casa Pia Rank: 63 W
Famalicão Rank: 72 D
Arouca Rank: 65 W
Moreirense Rank: 68 W
Porto Rank: 87 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Famalicão Rank: 73 L
Moreirense Rank: 66 L
Porto Rank: 87 L
Arouca Rank: 65 L
Rio Ave Rank: 64 L
Nacional Rank: 65 W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 3 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sporting Braga
60.35%
Draw
22.34%
Away Estoril
17.31%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sporting Braga
+55.44%
Draw
-69.16%
Estoril
+13.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
81.55
67.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sporting Braga
Estoril
Power Score
81.55
67.8
League Position
4
9
Global Rank
50
257

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sporting Braga — Opponent-weighted form score
Estoril — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sporting Braga Estoril

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sporting Braga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Estoril

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sporting Braga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Estoril
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.20
23.10
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.10
24.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sporting Braga +0.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Estoril -0.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Braga
Estoril
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sporting Braga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Estoril
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sporting Braga Estoril
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sporting Braga Estoril
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Braga
Estoril
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sporting Braga
vs
Estoril
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sporting Braga Estoril
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sporting Braga 0.24
Estoril 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sporting Braga Estoril
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sporting Braga 0.03
Estoril 0.02
Sporting Braga
Estoril
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • EPF had peak pressure around 88'.
  • SCB started the game with stronger pressure.
SCB Pressure EPF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: EPF reached the top pressure at 88' (46.14).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sporting Braga SCB Home
21 matches
Estoril EPF Away
Match Record
14
Wins
4
3
Draws
3
4
Losses
14
Goals
46
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
46
+31
Goal Difference
-31

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:06:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
L. Horníček
Czech Republic
1 L. Horníček
G. Lagerbielke
Sweden
14 G. Lagerbielke
V. Carvalho Vieira
Brazil
6 V. Carvalho Vieira
G. Moscardo de Salles
Brazil
17 G. Moscardo de Salles
M. Dorgeles
Ivory Coast
20 M. Dorgeles
J. Iria Santos Moutinho
Substitution
Portugal
8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
D. Tıknaz
Türkiye
34 D. Tıknaz
L. Cruz Lelo
Portugal
5 L. Cruz Lelo
R. Zalazar Martínez
Substitution
Uruguay
10 R. Zalazar Martínez
Pau Victor
Spain
18 Pau Victor
A. El Ouazzani
Substitution
Morocco
9 A. El Ouazzani
Pitch
M. Turk
Slovenia
16 M. Turk
A. Tsoungui
Belgium
5 A. Tsoungui
F. Reis Ferreira
Substitution
Portugal
4 F. Reis Ferreira
F. Bacher
Austria
25 F. Bacher
P. Gaspar Amaral
Substitution
Portugal
24 P. Gaspar Amaral
J. Holsgrove
Scotland
10 J. Holsgrove
M. da Silva Rocha
Portugal
8 M. da Silva Rocha
R. Sánchez Sendra
Substitution
Spain
2 R. Sánchez Sendra
J. Antunes Carvalho
Portugal
12 J. Antunes Carvalho
Y. Begraoui
Substitution
Morocco
14 Y. Begraoui
R. Guitane
Substitution
France
99 R. Guitane

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Municipal de Braga
Capacity :
30286
Attendance :
11858
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Anzhony Francisco Gonçalves Rodrigues
Inácio Pereira
Ângelo Carneiro
Tiago Miguel Gonçalves Rodrigues

Statistics

Possession
SCB
50%
EPF
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 5
42 Dangerous attacks 31
50 Possession 50
5 Corners 4
10 Free kicks 15
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 16
7 Successful Dribbles 11
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 69
3 Goal Kicks 7
9 Successful Headers 11
14 Throwins 13
1 Assists 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1
3 Substitutions 5
72 Ball Safe 64
1 Injuries 0
7 Goal Attempts 7

Attacking

5 Counter Attacks 4
100 Attacks 86
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

6 Key Passes 6
478 Passes 481
60 Long Passes 44
23 Successful Long Passes 17
400 Successful Passes 406
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
84 Successful Passes Percentage 84

Defensive

15 Tackles 16
3 Saves 2
41 Duels Won 53
11 Interceptions 10

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 11
4 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

15 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Anzhony Francisco Gonçalves Rodrigues

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Hornicek
Lukas Hornicek Goalkeeper
6.8
6
Vítor Carvalho
Vítor Carvalho Defender
7.05
14
Gustaf Lagerbielke
Gustaf Lagerbielke Defender
6.95
17
Gabriel Moscardo
Gabriel Moscardo Defender
6.59
5
Leonardo Lelo
Leonardo Lelo Midfielder
6.93
8
João Moutinho
João Moutinho Midfielder
7.02
15
Paulo Oliveira
Paulo Oliveira
Defender70'
6.64
20
Mario Dorgeles
Mario Dorgeles Midfielder
6.85
34
Demir Ege Tıknaz
Demir Ege Tıknaz Midfielder
6.93
9
Amine El Ouazzani
Amine El Ouazzani Attacker
6.78
39
Fran Navarro
Fran Navarro
Attacker61'
6.6
10
Rodrigo Zalazar
Rodrigo Zalazar Attacker
7.43
90
Luís Teixeira Pinto
Luís Teixeira Pinto
Midfielder46'
6.71
18
Pau Víctor
Pau Víctor Attacker
6.98
Referee : Anzhony Francisco Gonçalves Rodrigues

Starting XI ▼

16
Martin Turk
Martin Turk Goalkeeper
6.85
4
Ferro
Ferro Defender
6.81
19
André Lacximicant
André Lacximicant
Attacker54'
6.69
5
Antef Tsoungui
Antef Tsoungui Defender
6.71
25
Felix Bacher
Felix Bacher Defender
6.79
2
Ricard Sánchez
Ricard Sánchez Midfielder
6.77
22
Pedro Carvalho
Pedro Carvalho
Defender81'
6.48
8
Xeka
Xeka Midfielder
6.67
10
Jordan Holsgrove
Jordan Holsgrove Midfielder
7.17
24
Pedro Amaral
Pedro Amaral Midfielder
6.53
20
Gonçalo Costa
Gonçalo Costa
Defender70'
6.41
12
João Carvalho
João Carvalho Attacker
7.18
14
Yanis Begraoui
Yanis Begraoui Attacker
7.06
9
Alejandro Marqués
Alejandro Marqués
Attacker80'
6.53
99
Rafik Guitane
Rafik Guitane Attacker
6.83
70
Peixinho
Peixinho
Attacker80'
6.47

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Luís Teixeira Pinto
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+2'
81'
Event
Pedro Carvalho → Ricard Sánchez
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Alejandro Marqués → Yanis Begraoui
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Peixinho → Rafik Guitane
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Yanis Begraoui
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Paulo Oliveira → João Moutinho
5th Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Gonçalo Costa → Pedro Amaral
4th Substitution
Event
Fran Navarro → Amine El Ouazzani
3rd Substitution
61'
54'
Event
André Lacximicant → Ferro
2nd Substitution
50'
Event
Ferro
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Luís Teixeira Pinto → Rodrigo Zalazar
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Felix Bacher
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Demir Ege Tıknaz
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
38'
36'
Event
Xeka
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Gabriel Moscardo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
29'
Event
Mario Dorgeles
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
23'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Andre Lacximicant takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luis Pinto receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Marques takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Pau Victor Delgado's right-footed shot is blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Moscardo's header is saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Peixinho takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
81
Update Update
Pedro Carvalho is on, and Ricard Sanchez Sendra is off.
80
Update Update
Alejandro Marques comes on for Yanis Begraoui.
80
Update Update
Peixinho replaces Rafik Guitane.
79
Attempt Attempt
Yanis Begraoui scores with a right-footed shot.
77
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Jose Navarro Aliaga takes a left-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Goncalo Costa takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
73
Attempt Attempt
Vitor Carvalho Vieira attempts a header but misses the shot.
70
Update Update
Goncalo Costa comes on for Pedro Amaral.
70
Update Update
Paulo Andre Rodrigues Oliveira is on, and Joao Filipe Iria Santos Moutinho is off.
68
Attempt Attempt
Pau Victor Delgado's right-footed shot is saved.
62
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Moscardo takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
61
Update Update
Francisco Jose Navarro Aliaga replaces Amine El Ouazzani.
57
Attempt Attempt
Pau Victor Delgado's right-footed shot is blocked.
54
Substitution Substitution
Andre Lacximicant is substituted for Francisco Reis Ferreira.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Francisco Reis Ferreira of Ferro.
46
Substitution Substitution
Luis Pinto is substituted for Pau Victor Delgado.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Felix Bacher receives a yellow card.
39
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Holsgrove takes a left-footed shot, but it hits the post.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Demir Ege Tiknaz receives a yellow card.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Xeka receives a yellow card.
29
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriel Moscardo receives a yellow card.
26
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Holsgrove takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
23
Attempt Attempt
Mario Dorgeles scores with a left-footed shot.
19
Attempt Attempt
Ricard Sanchez Sendra takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
16
Update Update
Gabriel Moscardo's header is blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Zalazar takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Holsgrove takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
5
Attempt Attempt
Xeka's right-footed shot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Estoril demonstrated remarkable resolve to secure a 1-1 draw at Sporting Braga, overturning a halftime deficit through second-half composure. Equal possession reflected a tightly fought battle where neither side gained clear control. Braga, despite their superior standing, faltered in maintaining the lead, culminating in a significant deviation from anticipated results. This outcome underscores Estoril's growing threat on the road and exposes Braga's vulnerabilities at home. Both teams take a point, but implications differ: vital for Estoril's position, frustrating for Braga's ambitions.

Sporting Braga vs Estoril preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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