Spezia vs Südtirol Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Alberto Picco Sat, 18 Apr - 1:00 PM

Serie B

Spezia SPE

Südtirol SUD

Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 1:00 PM

Round 35 Regular Season

Giuseppe Aurelio - 82'

Leonardo Sernicola - 73'

Gianluca Lapadula - 70'

Pietro Beruatto - 33'

Giuseppe Di Serio - 25'

Mattia Valoti - 8' (P)

Emanuele Pecorino - 20'

Karim Zedadka 23'

CONTEXT

Spezia delivered a commanding 6-1 victory over Südtirol at home, asserting dominance from the outset with a 3-1 halftime lead. Controlling 66% possession, they overwhelmed their opponents, who managed just 34% of the ball. Südtirol's red card in the match further tilted the scales, enabling Spezia to add three more goals in the second half. As the stronger team, Spezia's performance reflected their pre-match favoritism, with the outcome showing minimal structural deviation of 4.6%. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with expectations, and the result aligned with market assessments. The red card introduced distortion, particularly post-halftime, but Spezia's superiority was evident throughout the fixture.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Spezia's win exhibited minimal structural deviation of 4.6%.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
Event impact: Südtirol red card significantly altered match dynamics.
Red card distortion: Red card caused second-half distortion favoring Spezia.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

R. Abisso

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Mastrodonato

1st Assistant

Marco Colaianni

2nd Assistant

P. Tremolada

4th Official

L. D'Angelo

F. Castori

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.15

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

2 - 2 - 1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Spezia

95.39%

Draw

3.67%

Südtirol

0.94%

Team Power Ranking

19.15

18.06

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Spezia

Südtirol

Power Score

19.15

18.06

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score

Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spezia Südtirol

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Spezia

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Südtirol

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Spezia ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Südtirol

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

32.58

18.68

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

18.68

32.58

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Spezia +1.32 Efficiency Index

Südtirol -1.32 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Spezia

Südtirol

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Spezia ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Südtirol

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Spezia Südtirol

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Spezia Südtirol

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Spezia

Südtirol

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Spezia

Südtirol

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Spezia Südtirol

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Spezia Südtirol

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Spezia

Südtirol

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

SPE had peak pressure around 87'.
SUD started the game with stronger pressure.

SPE Pressure SUD Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: SPE reached the top pressure at 87' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Spezia SPE Home

5 matches

Südtirol SUD Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-3

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:02:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2

12 D. Mascardi

37 A. Matějů

55 P. Hristov

31 G. Aurelio

17 L. Sernicola

25 F. Bandinelli

60 A. Romano

5 M. Valoti

11 P. Beruatto

20 G. Di Serio

10 G. Lapadula

31 M. Adamonis

34 F. Veseli

19 N. Pietrangeli

23 F. Davi

7 K. Zedadka

26 M. Frigerio

89 D. Črnigoj

6 J. Martini

79 S. Molina

33 S. Merkaj

9 E. Pecorino

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 18, 2026, 01:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Alberto Picco

Capacity :

10336

Pitch Surface :

Artificial turf

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Rosario Abisso

Vito Mastrodonato

Marco Colaianni

Paride Tremolada

Statistics

Possession

SPE

63%

SUD

37%

Top Statistics

6 Goals 1

5 Big Chances Created 0

19 Shots 5

50 Dangerous attacks 27

66 Possession 34

3 Corners 3

12 Free kicks 16

0 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42

18 Throwins 20

6 Goal Kicks 8

1 Penalties 0

4 Successful Dribbles 5

8 Dribble Attempts 12

3 Assists 1

11 Goal Attempts 4

39 Ball Safe 34

1 Hit Woodwork 0

5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

85 Attacks 80

1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

13 Key Passes 4

474 Passes 227

83 Successful Passes Percentage 64

62 Long Passes 57

393 Successful Passes 145

26 Successful Long Passes 20

42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35

Defensive

19 Tackles 13

57 Duels Won 51

6 Interceptions 1

0 Saves 3

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 20

7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

16 Fouls 13

4 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Rosario Abisso

Manager ▼

L. D'Angelo Coach

Starting XI ▼

Diego Mascardi Goalkeeper

6.87

Giuseppe Aurelio Defender

6.64

Ales Mateju Defender

6.83

Petko Hristov Defender

6.66

Mattia Valoti Midfielder

6.9

Emanuele Lorenzelli

Midfielder83'

6.5

Pietro Beruatto Midfielder

6.79

Leonardo Sernicola Midfielder

6.71

Luca Vignali

Defender74'

6.53

Filippo Bandinelli Midfielder

6.7

Christian Comotto

Midfielder26'

6.67

Alessandro Romano Midfielder

6.89

Alessandro Bellemo

Midfielder75'

6.56

Gianluca Lapadula Attacker

6.7

Giuseppe Di Serio Attacker

6.63

Ádám Nagy

Midfielder46'

6.54

Substitutes ▼

Christian Comotto

Midfielder26'

6.67

Ádám Nagy

Midfielder46'

6.54

Luca Vignali

Defender74'

6.53

Alessandro Bellemo

Midfielder75'

6.56

Emanuele Lorenzelli

Midfielder83'

6.5

Bench ▼

Leonardo Loria Goalkeeper

Boris Radunović Goalkeeper

6.79

Marco Ruggero Defender

6.79

Andrea Bertoncini Defender

Hamse Shagaxle Midfielder

6.64

Emanuele Adamo Midfielder

6.63

Laurs Skjellerup Attacker

6.49

Referee : Rosario Abisso