Spezia vs Monza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Alberto Picco Sat, 7 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie B
Spezia SPE
4 Winner 2
Monza MON
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 2:00 PM
Gabriele Artistico - 90+3', 20'
Filippo Bandinelli - 57'
Giuseppe Aurelio - 34'
Goal
|
Goal
Patrick Cutrone - 16'
Andrea Petagna - 9'
|
Second yellow card Andrea Carboni 32'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Spezia 4–2 Monza. The result saw Spezia take the points. Spezia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 51%–49%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Spezia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Maresca

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Bianchini

2nd Assistant

E. Feliciani

4th Official

D. Yoshikawa

1st Assistant

Spezia R. Donadoni
R. Donadoni
VS
Monza P. Bianco
P. Bianco
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.12
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cesena Rank: W
Frosinone Rank: L
Bari 1908 Rank: D
Virtus Entella Rank: D
Sampdoria Rank: L
Avellino Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Carrarese Rank: W
Juve Stabia Rank: W
Südtirol Rank: D
Avellino Rank: W
Calcio Padova Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Spezia
26.62%
Draw
27.39%
Away Monza
45.99%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
33.33
62.13
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Spezia
Monza
Power Score
33.33
62.13
League Position
16
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Monza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spezia Monza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Spezia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Monza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Spezia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.49
20.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.41
40.49
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Spezia +1.91 Efficiency Index
vs
Monza -1.91 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Spezia
Monza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Spezia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Spezia Monza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Spezia Monza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Spezia
Monza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Spezia SPE Home
1 matches
Monza MON Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:04:30+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 07, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium :
Stadio Alberto Picco
Capacity :
10336
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrea Bianchini
Fabio Maresca
Ermanno Feliciani
Daisuke Emanuele Yoshikawa

Statistics

Possession
SPE
51%
MON
49%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 3
53 Dangerous attacks 40
51 Possession 49
3 Corners 2
14 Free kicks 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

20 Throwins 17
2 Successful Dribbles 8
2 Assists 2
5 Goal Kicks 9
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
6 Dribble Attempts 15
4 Substitutions 5
8 Goal Attempts 4
2 Injuries 0
43 Ball Safe 50

Attacking

81 Attacks 87
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

11 Key Passes 8
78 Successful Passes Percentage 78
22 Successful Long Passes 19
381 Passes 379
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
298 Successful Passes 296
56 Long Passes 52

Defensive

19 Tackles 9
9 Interceptions 6
3 Saves 1

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 12
5 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
15 Fouls 14

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Gabriele Artistico
Header / 6th Goal
90+3'
Event
Alessandro Bellemo → Christian Comotto
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Petko Hristov  → Pietro Beruatto
9th Substitution
85'
76'
Event
Agustín Álvarez → Patrick Cutrone
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Emanuele Adamo → Mattia Valoti
6th Substitution
68'
65'
Event
Dany Mota → Giuseppe Caso
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Hernani → Matteo Pessina
4th Substitution
Event
Gabriele Artistico
Persistent fouling / 4th Yellowcard
63'
Event
Ádám Nagy → Filippo Bandinelli
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Filippo Bandinelli
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
57'
46'
Event
Arvid Brorsson → Andrea Colpani
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Leonardo Sernicola
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Giuseppe Aurelio
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
38'
Event
Giuseppe Aurelio
Header / 4th Goal
34'
34'
Event
Lorenzo Lucchesi → Andrea Petagna
1st Substitution
32'
Event
Andrea Carboni
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Gabriele Artistico
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
20'
16'
Event
Patrick Cutrone
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
10'
Event
Andrea Carboni
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
9'
Event
Andrea Petagna
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Spezia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Spezia vs Monza preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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