Spezia vs Mantova Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Alberto Picco Sun, 12 Apr - 3:15 PM

Serie B

Spezia SPE

Mantova MAN

Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 3:15 PM

Round 34 Regular Season

Nicolò Buso - 72'

Davide Bragantini - 32'

CONTEXT

The match between Spezia and Mantova is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 0-2 to the visitors. Mantova took the lead before half-time and added a second goal in the second period to complete a comfortable away victory. Pre-match expectations had positioned Spezia as narrow favorites at 39.8 percent, with the draw rated at 29.3 percent and an away win at 31 percent. The result therefore marked a significant deviation in Mantova’s favor, as the away team defied those forecasts to produce a clear win. Possession was relatively even but leaned toward the visitors, who held 56 percent of the ball compared with Spezia’s 44 percent. No expected goals data was available to measure chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with the final outcome, and the result did not align with pre-match projections. There were no red cards or other disruptive events to alter the flow of play. Overall Mantova, listed as the stronger side coming into the fixture, converted their slight edge in territory into a decisive victory.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Mantova showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

J. Sacchi

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Niedda

1st Assistant

G. Grasso

2nd Assistant

A. Calzavara

4th Official

L. D'Angelo

F. Modesto

1.04

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.27

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 4 - 3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Spezia

39.77%

Draw

29.27%

Mantova

30.96%

Movement

Changes since opening

Spezia

+39.55%

Draw

+27.35%

Mantova

-66.9%

Team Power Ranking

20.52

23.69

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Spezia

Mantova

Power Score

20.52

23.69

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score

Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spezia Mantova

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Spezia

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Mantova

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Spezia ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Mantova

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

33.52

26.88

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

26.88

33.52

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Spezia +0.63 Efficiency Index

Mantova -0.63 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Spezia

Mantova

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Spezia ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Mantova

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Spezia Mantova

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Spezia Mantova

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Spezia

Mantova

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Spezia

Mantova

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Spezia Mantova

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Spezia Mantova

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Spezia

Mantova

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

SPE had peak pressure around 66'.
SPE started the game with stronger pressure.

SPE Pressure MAN Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: SPE reached the top pressure at 66' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Spezia SPE Home

7 matches

Mantova MAN Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-6

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:08:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

12 D. Mascardi

37 A. Matějů

4 M. Ruggero

55 P. Hristov

11 P. Beruatto

34 C. Comotto

60 A. Romano

25 F. Bandinelli

31 G. Aurelio

20 G. Di Serio

9 G. Artistico

24 F. Bardi

29 S. Cella

27 A. Castellini

3 A. Dembélé

50 F. Benaissa-Yahia

80 R. Kouda

21 S. Trimboli

96 T. Maggioni

19 F. Ruocco

30 D. Bragantini

7 D. Mensah

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 12, 2026, 03:15 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Alberto Picco

Capacity :

10336

Pitch Surface :

Artificial turf

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Andrea Niedda

Gianluca Grasso

Juan Luca Sacchi

Andrea Calzavara

Statistics

Possession

SPE

47%

MAN

53%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2

2 Big Chances Created 1

10 Shots 8

55 Dangerous attacks 41

44 Possession 56

6 Corners 0

12 Free kicks 21

2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Assists 2

4 Goal Kicks 10

70 Ball Safe 76

13 Dribble Attempts 16

22 Throwins 19

8 Successful Dribbles 7

62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44

9 Goal Attempts 7

1 Hit Woodwork 0

5 Substitutions 3

Attacking

101 Attacks 97

2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

66 Successful Passes Percentage 75

76 Long Passes 55

200 Successful Passes 307

28 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29

304 Passes 412

21 Successful Long Passes 16

9 Key Passes 8

Defensive

19 Tackles 14

10 Interceptions 6

2 Saves 3

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 7

9 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 2

18 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Juan Luca Sacchi

Manager ▼

L. D'Angelo Coach

Starting XI ▼

Diego Mascardi Goalkeeper

Boris Radunović

Goalkeeper46'

Marco Ruggero Defender

Pietro Beruatto Defender

Ales Mateju Defender

Petko Hristov Defender

Filippo Bandinelli Midfielder

Giuseppe Aurelio Midfielder

Leonardo Sernicola

Defender46'

Christian Comotto Midfielder

Luca Vignali

Defender56'

Alessandro Romano Midfielder

Gabriele Artistico Attacker

Vanja Vlahović

Attacker74'

Giuseppe Di Serio Attacker

Gianluca Lapadula

Attacker46'

Substitutes ▼

Boris Radunović

Goalkeeper46'

Gianluca Lapadula

Attacker46'

Leonardo Sernicola

Defender46'

Luca Vignali

Defender56'

Vanja Vlahović

Attacker74'

Bench ▼

Leonardo Loria Goalkeeper

Andrea Bertoncini Defender

Alessandro Bellemo Midfielder

Ádám Nagy Midfielder

Hamse Shagaxle Midfielder

Emanuele Lorenzelli Midfielder

Referee : Juan Luca Sacchi