Spartak Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Otkrytie Arena Sun, 5 Apr - 4:30 PM
Premier League Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva 
2 
1
1
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 23 · Regular Season
Pablo Solari - 83'
Esequiel Barco - 66' (P)
|
César Montes - 23'
|
Evgeniy Morozov 72' STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
The match between Spartak Moskva and Lokomotiv Moskva is officially finished, with Spartak securing a hard-fought 2-1 victory. Despite trailing 1-0 at half-time, the home side mounted a successful second-half comeback to claim the win. Spartak Moskva dictated the play, holding 62% of the possession compared to Lokomotiv Moskva's 38%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the final scoreline aligned with the underlying shot quality. However, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with standard expectations. A crucial turning point was a red card issued to Lokomotiv Moskva. This dismissal created a significant second-half distortion, allowing the hosts to capitalize on their numerical advantage. The final outcome was ultimately market-aligned, confirming Spartak Moskva's status as the stronger team. Interestingly, despite flat pre-match market probabilities registering at zero across all outcomes, Spartak Moskva displayed a significant deviation level from baseline pre-match expectations. Overcoming their sluggish start, the hosts fully leveraged the red card to overturn the early deficit and seal all three points.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Spartak Moskva showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
- Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
I. Tanashev
• 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
J. Carcedo Mardones
VS
M. Galaktionov
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.91
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Orenburg Rank: 52 W
Zenit Rank: 79 L
Akron Rank: 54 W
Sochi Rank: 48 W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 70 D
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 66 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akron Rank: 55 W
Rubin Kazan Rank: 60 L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 51 W
Sochi Rank: 48 W
Rostov Rank: 60 W
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 13 - 15
15
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Spartak Moskva0%
Draw
0%
Lokomotiv Moskva0%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.75 70.71 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Spartak Moskva Lokomotiv MoskvaPower Score
72.75
70.71
League Position
6
3
Global Rank
138
173
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Spartak Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Lokomotiv Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spartak Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Spartak Moskva
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Lokomotiv Moskva
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Spartak Moskva ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiv Moskva
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.24
30.26
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.26
30.24
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Spartak Moskva 0.00 Efficiency Index
vs
Lokomotiv Moskva +0.00 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Spartak Moskva
Lokomotiv Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Spartak Moskva ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiv Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Spartak Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Spartak Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Spartak Moskva
Lokomotiv Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Spartak Moskvavs
Lokomotiv Moskva
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Spartak Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Spartak Moskva 0.29
Lokomotiv Moskva 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Spartak Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Spartak Moskva 0.03
Lokomotiv Moskva 0.04
Spartak Moskva
Lokomotiv Moskva
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 45 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva Home
45 matches
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Away
Match Record 17
Wins
15
13
Draws
13
15
Losses
17
Goals 64
Goals Scored
55
55
Goals Conceded
64
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:05:26+00:00
STARTING XI
Spartak Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
98 A. Maximenko
97 D. Denisov
3 C. Wooh
4 A. Djiku
47 R. Zobnin
68 R. Litvinov
7 P. Solari
18 N. Umyarov
5 E. Barco
P. Polekh
#6279'
83 G. Carvalho Fernandes
M. Ugalde
#946'
11 L. Garcia
1 A. Mitryushkin
3 Lucas Fasson
23 C. Montes Castro
85 E. Morozov
45 A. Silyanov
93 A. Karpukas
25 D. Prutsev
19 A. Rudenko
83 A. Batrakov
N. Komlichenko
#2768'
7 Z. Bakaev
G. Nyamsi
#576'
10 D. Vorobyev
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Apr 05, 2026, 04:30 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 23 · Regular Season
🏟️ Stadium :
Otkrytie Arena
👥 Capacity :
14274
🌱 Pitch Surface :
N/A
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Inal Tanashev
Next Match
Spartak Moskva
vs
Rostov
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Away
Lokomotiv Moskva
vs
Dynamo Makhachkala
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Possession
Spartak Moskva
60%
Lokomotiv Moskva
40%
Top Statistics
2 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 1
16 Shots 10
55 Dangerous attacks 30
62 Possession 38
3 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1
Match Overview
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 23
17 Throwins 24
5 Goal Kicks 12
17 Successful Headers 15
8 Dribble Attempts 3
8 Successful Dribbles 3
1 Assists 1
2 Penalties 0
14 Goal Attempts 7
79 Ball Safe 79
2 Substitutions 2
3 Injuries 1
Attacking
98 Attacks 76
Possession
82 Successful Passes Percentage 69
431 Successful Passes 224
528 Passes 327
18 Long Passes 15
Defensive
6 Interceptions 14
58 Duels Won 53
14 Tackles 19
3 Saves 4
Discipline
15 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 0
Lineup
Spartak Moskva Referee : Inal Tanashev
Manager ▼
J. Carcedo Mardones Coach
Starting XI ▼
98 Aleksandr Maksimenko Goalkeeper
3 Christopher Wooh Defender
4 Alexander Djiku Defender
47 Roman Zobnin Defender
97 Daniil Denisov Defender
5 Esequiel Barco Midfielder
7 Pablo Solari Midfielder
18 Nail Umyarov Midfielder
68 Ruslan Litvinov Midfielder
83 Gedson Fernandes Midfielder
62Pavel Polekh
Attacker79'
11 Levi García Attacker
9Manfred Ugalde
Attacker46'
Substitutes ▼
9Manfred Ugalde
Attacker46'
62Pavel Polekh
Attacker79'
Bench ▼
1
Ilya Pomazun Goalkeeper
56
Aleksandr Dovbnya Goalkeeper
2
Oleg Reabciuk Defender
24 Nikita Massalyga Midfielder
27 Igor Dmitriev Midfielder
35
Christopher Martins Midfielder
40 Ivan Sorokin Midfielder
91
Anton Zabolotnyi Attacker
Lokomotiv Moskva Referee : Inal Tanashev
Manager ▼
M. Galaktionov Coach
Starting XI ▼
1 Anton Mitryushkin Goalkeeper
3 Lucas Fasson Defender
23 César Montes Defender
45 Alexander Silyanov Defender
85 Evgeniy Morozov Defender
7 Zelimkhan Bakaev Midfielder
27Nikolay Komlichenko
Attacker68'
19 Aleksandr Rudenko Midfielder
25 Danil Prutsev Midfielder
83 Aleksey Batrakov Midfielder
93 Artem Karpukas Midfielder
10 Dmitry Vorobyev Attacker
5Gerzino Nyamsi
Defender76'
Substitutes ▼
27Nikolay Komlichenko
Attacker68'
5Gerzino Nyamsi
Defender76'
Bench ▼
16
Daniil Veselov Goalkeeper
22
Ilya Lantratov Goalkeeper
24 Maksim Nenakhov Defender
74 Daniil Chevardin Defender
8 Vladislav Sarvelyi Midfielder
14
Nikita Saltykov Midfielder
32
Lucas Vera Midfielder
90 Danila Godyaev Midfielder
94
Artem Timofeev Midfielder
99 Ruslan Myalkovskiy Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
Manfred Ugalde
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
Pablo Solari
Header / 2nd Goal
83'
82'
Nikolay Komlichenko
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Pavel Polekh → Gedson Fernandes
4th Substitution
79'
78'
Lucas Fasson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
76'
Gerzino Nyamsi → Dmitry Vorobyev
3rd Substitution
72'
Evgeniy Morozov
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
68'
Nikolay Komlichenko → Zelimkhan Bakaev
2nd Substitution
Esequiel Barco
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
66'
58'
Evgeniy Morozov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
Dmitry Vorobyev
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Manfred Ugalde → Levi García
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
23'
César Montes
Header / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Spartak Moskva exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.
Spartak Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
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