Spartak Moskva vs Krasnodar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Otkrytie Arena Thu, 23 Apr - 4:45 PM
Premier League
Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva
1 Winner 2
Krasnodar KRA
Full Time Thu, 23 Apr 4:45 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
Christopher Martins - 38'
Goal
|
Goal
Jubal - 85'
Eduard Spertsyan - 45+1' (P)

CONTEXT

Spartak Moskva hosted Krasnodar in a competitive league encounter that concluded with a 1-2 victory for the visitors. The halftime score stood at 1-1, mirroring the balanced possession distribution of 48% to Spartak and 52% to Krasnodar. Krasnodar, identified as the stronger team, demonstrated resilience by overturning the equilibrium in the second half without any red cards or major disruptions influencing the outcome. The match featured a significant structural deviation of 100% in Krasnodar's favor, indicating a pronounced shift from expected patterns. Efficiency metrics remained in line with established norms, and the result aligned with pre-match market assessments. Lacking xG data, precise chance creation analysis is unavailable, but the even first-half play transitioned into Krasnodar's control post-interval. No second-half adjustments were noted, preserving the game's natural progression.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Krasnodar exhibited a significant structural deviation of 100%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards resulted in no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Chistyakov

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Spartak Moskva J. Carcedo Mardones
J. Carcedo Mardones
VS
Krasnodar M. Musaev
M. Musaev
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.15
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akhmat Grozny Rank: W
Rostov Rank: D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: W
Orenburg Rank: W
Zenit Rank: L
Akron Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: D
Zenit Rank: D
Akhmat Grozny Rank: W
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: W
Sochi Rank: W
Rubin Kazan Rank: L
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 2 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Spartak Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Krasnodar
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
33.96
35.46
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Spartak Moskva
Krasnodar
Power Score
33.96
35.46
League Position
5
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Spartak Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Krasnodar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spartak Moskva Krasnodar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Spartak Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Krasnodar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Spartak Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krasnodar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.94
19.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.13
40.94
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Spartak Moskva +2.51 Efficiency Index
vs
Krasnodar -2.51 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Spartak Moskva
Krasnodar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Spartak Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krasnodar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Spartak Moskva Krasnodar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Spartak Moskva Krasnodar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Spartak Moskva
Krasnodar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Spartak Moskva
vs
Krasnodar
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Spartak Moskva Krasnodar
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Spartak Moskva 0.32
Krasnodar 0.47
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Spartak Moskva Krasnodar
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Spartak Moskva 0.11
Krasnodar 0.02
Spartak Moskva
Krasnodar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Spartak Moskva had peak pressure around 99'.
  • Spartak Moskva started the game with stronger pressure.
Spartak Moskva Pressure KRA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Spartak Moskva reached the top pressure at 99' (96.61).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva Home
29 matches
Krasnodar KRA Away
Match Record
17
Wins
10
2
Draws
2
10
Losses
17
Goals
56
Goals Scored
41
41
Goals Conceded
56
+15
Goal Difference
-15

Data last updated: 2026-04-24T00:01:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Maximenko
Russia
98 A. Maximenko
D. Denisov
Substitution
Russia
97 D. Denisov
R. Litvinov
Russia
68 R. Litvinov
A. Djiku
Ghana
4 A. Djiku
R. Zobnin
Russia
47 R. Zobnin
C. Martins Pereira
Substitution
Luxembourg
35 C. Martins Pereira
N. Umyarov
Russia
18 N. Umyarov
G. Carvalho Fernandes
Portugal
83 G. Carvalho Fernandes
E. Barco
Argentina
5 E. Barco
J. Costa Martins
Brazil
10 J. Costa Martins
M. Ugalde
Substitution
Costa Rica
9 M. Ugalde
Pitch
S. Agkatsev
Russia
1 S. Agkatsev
L. Olaza Catrofe
Uruguay
15 L. Olaza Catrofe
D. Costa Barbosa
Brazil
4 D. Costa Barbosa
J. Rocha Mendes Junior
Brazil
5 J. Rocha Mendes Junior
G. González Apud
Uruguay
20 G. González Apud
K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
Cape Verde
6 K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
A. Chernikov
Russia
53 A. Chernikov
J. Fortes Bachiessa
Substitution
Angola
11 J. Fortes Bachiessa
E. Spertsyan
Substitution
Armenia
10 E. Spertsyan
N. Krivtsov
Russia
88 N. Krivtsov
J. Córdoba Copete
Colombia
9 J. Córdoba Copete

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 23, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Otkrytie Arena
Capacity :
14274
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Artem Chistyakov

Statistics

Possession
Spartak Moskva
49%
KRA
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 1
53 Dangerous attacks 19
48 Possession 52
9 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 14
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

54 Ball Safe 73
3 Substitutions 2
1 Injuries 3
13 Goal Attempts 3
16 Dribble Attempts 4
7 Successful Dribbles 2
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
14 Throwins 11
1 Goal Kicks 10
17 Successful Headers 14
1 Assists 1
0 Penalties 2

Attacking

80 Attacks 66

Possession

35 Long Passes 57
11 Successful Long Passes 22
335 Passes 380
77 Successful Passes Percentage 78
257 Successful Passes 298
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39

Defensive

10 Interceptions 7
1 Saves 4
6 Tackles 15
38 Duels Won 45

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 10
8 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

14 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Artem Chistyakov

Starting XI ▼

98
Aleksandr Maksimenko
Aleksandr Maksimenko Goalkeeper
6.73
4
Alexander Djiku
Alexander Djiku Defender
6.77
47
Roman Zobnin
Roman Zobnin Defender
6.72
68
Ruslan Litvinov
Ruslan Litvinov Defender
6.95
97
Daniil Denisov
Daniil Denisov Defender
6.83
27
Igor Dmitriev
Igor Dmitriev
Midfielder81'
6.9
5
Esequiel Barco
Esequiel Barco Midfielder
7.53
10
Marquinhos
Marquinhos Midfielder
6.89
18
Nail Umyarov
Nail Umyarov Midfielder
7
35
Christopher Martins
Christopher Martins Midfielder
6.71
11
Levi García
Levi García
Attacker81'
6.79
83
Gedson Fernandes
Gedson Fernandes Midfielder
6.89
9
Manfred Ugalde
Manfred Ugalde Attacker
6.93
7
Pablo Solari
Pablo Solari
Midfielder65'
7.01
Referee : Artem Chistyakov

Starting XI ▼

1
Stanislav Agkatsev
Stanislav Agkatsev Goalkeeper
6.8
4
Diego Costa
Diego Costa Defender
7.18
5
Jubal
Jubal Defender
6.84
15
Lucas Olaza
Lucas Olaza Defender
7.18
20
Giovanni González
Giovanni González Defender
6.83
6
Kevin Lenini
Kevin Lenini Midfielder
6.75
10
Eduard Spertsyan
Eduard Spertsyan Midfielder
7.63
90
Moses David Cobnan
Moses David Cobnan
Attacker74'
6.74
11
João Batxi
João Batxi Midfielder
6.79
23
Juan Manuel Boselli
Juan Manuel Boselli
Attacker74'
6.95
53
Aleksandr Chernikov
Aleksandr Chernikov Midfielder
6.78
88
Nikita Krivtsov
Nikita Krivtsov Midfielder
6.86
9
Jhon Córdoba
Jhon Córdoba Attacker
7.22

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Jubal
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Levi García → Christopher Martins
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Igor Dmitriev → Daniil Denisov
4th Substitution
81'
74'
Event
Juan Manuel Boselli → João Batxi
2nd Substitution
74'
Event
Moses David Cobnan → Eduard Spertsyan
3rd Substitution
Event
Pablo Solari → Manfred Ugalde
1st Substitution
65'
56'
Event
Jubal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Eduard Spertsyan
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
44'
Event
Kevin Lenini
Penalty awarded
Event
Christopher Martins
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
38'

CONCLUSION

Krasnodar's 1-2 triumph over Spartak Moskva underscores their edge as the stronger team, converting a 1-1 halftime deadlock into a second-half win amid near-even possession. The significant 100% structural deviation highlights Krasnodar's outperformance, while efficiency held steady without variance. Market alignment confirms the result's consistency with anticipations, unmarred by red cards or events. Absent xG figures, evaluation relies on observable metrics like possession and score progression, revealing Krasnodar's clinical execution. Spartak's failure to capitalize post-interval proved decisive, allowing Krasnodar to claim vital points in a structurally sound contest.

Spartak Moskva vs Krasnodar preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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