Spartak Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Otkrytie Arena Sun, 19 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva
3 Winner 1
Akhmat Grozny AKH
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 25 Regular Season
Gedson Fernandes - 39'
Marquinhos - 28'
Esequiel Barco - 21'
Goal
|
Goal
Maksim Samorodov - 41'

CONTEXT

Spartak Moskva delivered a commanding 3-1 win against Akhmat Grozny, with all goals scored in a thrilling first half that ended 3-1. The home team controlled proceedings with 68% possession, never looking back as they managed the second half effectively without further scoring. As the pre-designated stronger side, Spartak's performance marked a significant structural deviation in their favor at 100%, fully aligning with market expectations. No red cards influenced the outcome, and efficiency shifts stayed in line despite unavailable xG metrics. Akhmat Grozny struggled to create chances, unable to overturn the deficit post-interval. This result highlights Spartak's clinical finishing and control.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Spartak Moskva showed significant structural deviation with 100% deviation percentage.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed without data.
  • Event impact: No notable event impacts affected the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Shafeev

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Obrazko

1st Assistant

I. Kaplenkov

4th Official

D. Petrov

2nd Assistant

Spartak Moskva J. Carcedo Mardones
J. Carcedo Mardones
VS
Akhmat Grozny S. Cherchesov
S. Cherchesov
1.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.23
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rostov Rank: D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: W
Orenburg Rank: W
Zenit Rank: L
Akron Rank: W
Sochi Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krylya Sovetov Rank: D
Krasnodar Rank: L
Rostov Rank: W
Akron Rank: D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: D
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
19
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 9 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Spartak Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Akhmat Grozny
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.91
22.97
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Spartak Moskva
Akhmat Grozny
Power Score
31.91
22.97
League Position
5
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Spartak Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Akhmat Grozny — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spartak Moskva Akhmat Grozny

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Spartak Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Akhmat Grozny

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Spartak Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Akhmat Grozny
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.78
19.69
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.69
29.78
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Spartak Moskva +1.16 Efficiency Index
vs
Akhmat Grozny -1.16 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Spartak Moskva
Akhmat Grozny
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Spartak Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Akhmat Grozny
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Spartak Moskva Akhmat Grozny
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Spartak Moskva Akhmat Grozny
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Spartak Moskva
Akhmat Grozny
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Spartak Moskva
vs
Akhmat Grozny
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Spartak Moskva Akhmat Grozny
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Spartak Moskva 0.26
Akhmat Grozny 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Spartak Moskva Akhmat Grozny
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Spartak Moskva 0.04
Akhmat Grozny 0.05
Spartak Moskva
Akhmat Grozny
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Spartak Moskva had peak pressure around 54'.
  • Spartak Moskva started the game with stronger pressure.
Spartak Moskva Pressure AKH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Spartak Moskva reached the top pressure at 54' (67.61).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva Home
37 matches
Akhmat Grozny AKH Away
Match Record
19
Wins
9
9
Draws
9
9
Losses
19
Goals
59
Goals Scored
38
38
Goals Conceded
59
+21
Goal Difference
-21

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:03:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Maximenko
Russia
98 A. Maximenko
D. Denisov
Substitution
Russia
97 D. Denisov
C. Wooh
Substitution
France
3 C. Wooh
A. Djiku
Ghana
4 A. Djiku
G. Carvalho Fernandes
Portugal
83 G. Carvalho Fernandes
N. Umyarov
Russia
18 N. Umyarov
R. Litvinov
Russia
68 R. Litvinov
P. Solari
Substitution
Argentina
7 P. Solari
E. Barco
Argentina
5 E. Barco
J. Costa Martins
Substitution
Brazil
10 J. Costa Martins
M. Ugalde
Substitution
Costa Rica
9 M. Ugalde
Pitch
V. Uljanov
Russia
1 V. Uljanov
M. Bogosavac
Serbia
8 M. Bogosavac
K. Cake
Albania
5 K. Cake
M. Zare Mohazabieh
Substitution
22 M. Zare Mohazabieh
M. Sidorov
Substitution
Russia
81 M. Sidorov
E. dos Santos Cacintura
Angola
17 E. dos Santos Cacintura
S. Pryakhin
Substitution
Russia
19 S. Pryakhin
M. Samorodov
Kazakhstan
20 M. Samorodov
R. Zhemaletdinov
Russia
10 R. Zhemaletdinov
B. Mansilla
Substitution
Argentina
9 B. Mansilla
G. Melkadze
Substitution
Russia
77 G. Melkadze

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 19, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 25 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Otkrytie Arena
Capacity :
14274
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrey Obrazko
Igor Kaplenkov
Denis Petrov
Rafael Shafeev

Statistics

Possession
Spartak Moskva
64%
AKH
36%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 5
65 Dangerous attacks 26
68 Possession 32
1 Corners 1
22 Free kicks 18
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

90 Ball Safe 71
5 Substitutions 5
10 Goal Attempts 5
1 Injuries 2
12 Successful Dribbles 5
71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
17 Dribble Attempts 12
20 Throwins 25
3 Assists 1
3 Goal Kicks 10
8 Successful Headers 10

Attacking

112 Attacks 70
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
446 Successful Passes 180
519 Passes 246
33 Successful Long Passes 20
57 Long Passes 47
86 Successful Passes Percentage 73

Defensive

1 Saves 1
13 Interceptions 17
62 Duels Won 44
19 Tackles 16

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 10
4 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

13 Fouls 23
4 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Rafael Shafeev

Starting XI ▼

98
Aleksandr Maksimenko
Aleksandr Maksimenko Goalkeeper
6.74
3
Christopher Wooh
Christopher Wooh Defender
6.76
47
Roman Zobnin
Roman Zobnin
Midfielder64'
6.7
4
Alexander Djiku
Alexander Djiku Defender
6.78
83
Gedson Fernandes
Gedson Fernandes Defender
6.88
97
Daniil Denisov
Daniil Denisov Defender
6.85
27
Igor Dmitriev
Igor Dmitriev
Midfielder90+1'
6.9
5
Esequiel Barco
Esequiel Barco Midfielder
7.51
7
Pablo Solari
Pablo Solari Midfielder
6.99
24
Nikita Massalyga
Nikita Massalyga
Midfielder90'
6.5
10
Marquinhos
Marquinhos Midfielder
6.81
35
Christopher Martins
Christopher Martins
Midfielder72'
6.71
18
Nail Umyarov
Nail Umyarov Midfielder
7.01
68
Ruslan Litvinov
Ruslan Litvinov Midfielder
6.94
9
Manfred Ugalde
Manfred Ugalde Attacker
6.95
91
Anton Zabolotnyi
Anton Zabolotnyi
Attacker90'
6.43
Referee : Rafael Shafeev

Starting XI ▼

1
Vadim Ulyanov
Vadim Ulyanov Goalkeeper
6.88
5
Klisman Cake
Klisman Cake Defender
6.84
8
Miroslav Bogosavac
Miroslav Bogosavac Defender
6.72
22
Mohammadmehdi Zare
Mohammadmehdi Zare Defender
6.82
90
Ousmane N’Dong
Ousmane N’Dong
Defender86'
6.88
81
Maksim Sidorov
Maksim Sidorov Defender
6.7
82
Daniil Khlusevich
Daniil Khlusevich
Defender86'
5.98
9
Brian Mansilla
Brian Mansilla Midfielder
6.81
23
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Midfielder46'
6.61
10
Rifat Zhemaletdinov
Rifat Zhemaletdinov Midfielder
6.57
17
Egas Cacintura
Egas Cacintura Midfielder
6.89
19
S. Pryakhin
S. Pryakhin Midfielder
6.7
37
P. Gadio
P. Gadio
Midfielder46'
6.56
20
Maksim Samorodov
Maksim Samorodov Midfielder
6.94
77
Georgiy Melkadze
Georgiy Melkadze Attacker
6.91
13
Mohamed Konaté
Mohamed Konaté
Attacker64'
6.71

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Igor Dmitriev → Daniil Denisov
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Anton Zabolotnyi → Manfred Ugalde
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Nikita Massalyga → Pablo Solari
8th Substitution
90'
86'
Event
Daniil Khlusevich → Maksim Sidorov
6th Substitution
86'
Event
Ousmane N’Dong → Mohammadmehdi Zare
7th Substitution
Event
Christopher Martins → Marquinhos
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Roman Zobnin → Christopher Wooh
4th Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Mohamed Konaté → Georgiy Melkadze
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Maksim Sidorov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Manfred Ugalde
Goal disallowed
60'
Event
Christopher Wooh
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
53'
46'
Event
P. Gadio → S. Pryakhin
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Galymzhan Kenzhebek → Brian Mansilla
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Maksim Samorodov
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Gedson Fernandes
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
39'
Event
Marquinhos
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
28'
Event
Esequiel Barco
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
21'

CONCLUSION

Spartak Moskva's 3-1 triumph over Akhmat Grozny exemplified their superiority, exploding out of the gates with a 3-1 halftime lead fueled by 68% possession dominance. The significant structural deviation underscored their edge, perfectly matching market alignment without xG data to contradict. Efficiency held steady, and the absence of red cards or second-half adjustments preserved their control. Akhmat's inability to respond highlights Spartak's tactical maturity, cementing a straightforward victory for the stronger team.

Spartak Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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