Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam SPR
2 Winner 3
Excelsior EXC
Full Time Sun, 17 May 12:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Milan Zonneveld - 90+1'
Ayoni Santos - 53'
Goal
|
Goal
Noah Naujoks - 62'
Arthur Zagré - 50'
Giannino Vianello - 14' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

Excelsior claimed a 3-2 win away at Sparta Rotterdam after leading 0-1 at halftime. Sparta Rotterdam held 53 percent possession but could not prevent the visitors from adding two second-half goals before a late home response. The stronger side on paper failed to convert territorial control into a positive result as Excelsior finished efficiently. No red cards were issued and the game remained eleven versus eleven throughout. The outcome reflected a clear deviation from pre-match structure with Excelsior delivering the decisive moments. Second-half adjustments proved pivotal in turning the narrow interval advantage into a full victory for the away side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 Excelsior. Excelsior showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with the final performance indicators.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be measured because expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The result was not aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations stayed undefined owing to missing expected goals figures.
  • Event impact: Excelsior's two second-half goals created the decisive event impact.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was zero as neither side received a dismissal.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Lindhout

Netherlands 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. de Nas

2nd Assistant

Netherlands

R. Sturm

4th Official

Netherlands

J. Balder

1st Assistant

Netherlands

League averages

Eredivisie Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.58
Yellow cards / match 2.67
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.12
Sparta Rotterdam M. Steijn
M. Steijn
VS
Excelsior R. den Uil
R. den Uil
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.19
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Twente Rank: 76 L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 67 D
Telstar Rank: 64 L
PSV Rank: 87 L
NAC Breda Rank: 56 D
FC Volendam Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Volendam Rank: 60 D
FC Groningen Rank: 66 W
FC Utrecht Rank: 72 W
PEC Zwolle Rank: 62 D
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 74 L
Heracles Almelo Rank: 54 D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 1 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sparta Rotterdam
46.53%
Draw
25.44%
Away Excelsior
28.03%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sparta Rotterdam
+42.94%
Draw
-66.06%
Excelsior
+23.12%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.78
52.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior
Power Score
63.78
52.82
League Position
10
13
Global Rank
359
404

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sparta Rotterdam — Opponent-weighted form score
Excelsior — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sparta Rotterdam Excelsior

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sparta Rotterdam

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Excelsior

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sparta Rotterdam ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Excelsior
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.40
38.40
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.40
38.40
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sparta Rotterdam 0.00 Efficiency Index
vs
Excelsior +0.00 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sparta Rotterdam ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Excelsior
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sparta Rotterdam Excelsior
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sparta Rotterdam Excelsior
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sparta Rotterdam
vs
Excelsior
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sparta Rotterdam Excelsior
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sparta Rotterdam 0.38
Excelsior 0.39
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sparta Rotterdam Excelsior
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sparta Rotterdam 0.07
Excelsior 0.04
Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SPR had peak pressure around 96'.
  • SPR started the game with stronger pressure.
SPR Pressure EXC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SPR reached the top pressure at 96' (94.94).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sparta Rotterdam SPR Home
13 matches
Excelsior EXC Away
Match Record
5
Wins
7
1
Draws
1
7
Losses
5
Goals
24
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
24
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T01:02:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
J. Drommel
Netherlands
1 J. Drommel
S. Bakari
Substitution
Comoros
2 S. Bakari
M. Young
Netherlands
3 M. Young
T. Quintero León
Venezuela
4 T. Quintero León
G. Vianello
Substitution
5 G. Vianello
J. Kitolano
Substitution
Norway
8 J. Kitolano
P. Clement
Substitution
Netherlands
6 P. Clement
A. Santos
Netherlands
7 A. Santos
V. van Crooij
Netherlands
10 V. van Crooij
S. Mito
Substitution
Japan
11 S. Mito
T. Lauritsen
Norway
9 T. Lauritsen
Pitch
S. van Gassel
Netherlands
1 S. van Gassel
A. Zagre
France
12 A. Zagre
L. Schouten
Netherlands
14 L. Schouten
C. Widell
Sweden
4 C. Widell
R. Meissen
Substitution
Netherlands
3 R. Meissen
I. Yegoian
Georgia
23 I. Yegoian
L. Hartjes
Netherlands
20 L. Hartjes
N. Naujoks
Substitution
Netherlands
10 N. Naujoks
G. de Regt
Netherlands
11 G. de Regt
M. van Duinen
Substitution
Netherlands
29 M. van Duinen
D. Sanches Fernandes
Substitution
Netherlands
30 D. Sanches Fernandes

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel
Capacity :
11026
Attendance :
10599
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Roy de Nas
Rick Sturm
Allard Lindhout
Johan Balder

Statistics

Possession
SPR
52%
EXC
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 3
47 Dangerous attacks 41
53 Possession 47
5 Corners 2
15 Free kicks 11
4 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
77 Ball Safe 81
12 Goal Attempts 9
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
10 Dribble Attempts 8
13 Throwins 19
4 Successful Dribbles 3
21 Successful Headers 16
14 Goal Kicks 9
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
113 Attacks 102

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 79
420 Passes 383
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
339 Successful Passes 304
28 Successful Long Passes 45
11 Key Passes 7
57 Long Passes 80

Defensive

18 Interceptions 3
51 Duels Won 40
12 Tackles 11
1 Saves 3

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

11 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Allard Lindhout

Starting XI ▼

1
Joël Drommel
Joël Drommel Goalkeeper
2
Saïd Bakari
Saïd Bakari Defender
19
Milan Zonneveld
Milan Zonneveld
Attacker46'
3
Marvin Young
Marvin Young Defender
4
Teo Quintero
Teo Quintero Defender
5
Giannino Vianello
Giannino Vianello Defender
15
Patrick van Aanholt
Patrick van Aanholt
Defender71'
6
Pelle Clement
Pelle Clement Midfielder
16
Julian Baas
Julian Baas
Midfielder46'
7
Ayoni Santos
Ayoni Santos Midfielder
8
Joshua Kitolano
Joshua Kitolano Midfielder
21
Jens Toornstra
Jens Toornstra
Midfielder79'
10
Vito van Crooij
Vito van Crooij Midfielder
11
Shunsuke Mito
Shunsuke Mito Midfielder
18
Jonathan de Guzmán
Jonathan de Guzmán
Midfielder71'
9
Tobias Lauritsen
Tobias Lauritsen Attacker
Referee : Allard Lindhout

Starting XI ▼

1
Stijn van Gassel
Stijn van Gassel Goalkeeper
3
Rick Meissen
Rick Meissen Defender
2
Ilias Bronkhorst
Ilias Bronkhorst
Defender64'
4
Casper Widell
Casper Widell Defender
12
Arthur Zagré
Arthur Zagré Defender
14
Lewis Schouten
Lewis Schouten Defender
10
Noah Naujoks
Noah Naujoks Midfielder
6
Adam Carlén
Adam Carlén
Midfielder86'
20
Lennard Hartjes
Lennard Hartjes Midfielder
23
Irakli Yegoian
Irakli Yegoian Midfielder
11
Gyan de Regt
Gyan de Regt Attacker
29
Mike van Duinen
Mike van Duinen Attacker
33
Jerolldino Bergraaf
Jerolldino Bergraaf
Attacker75'
30
Derensili Sanches Fernandes
Derensili Sanches Fernandes Attacker
9
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Attacker86'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Milan Zonneveld
Goal disallowed
90+4'
Event
Milan Zonneveld
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
90+1'
Event
Patrick van Aanholt
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
89'
86'
Event
Adam Carlén → Noah Naujoks
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Szymon Wlodarczyk → Derensili Sanches Fernandes
9th Substitution
Event
Jens Toornstra → Joshua Kitolano
7th Substitution
79'
75'
Event
Jerolldino Bergraaf → Mike van Duinen
6th Substitution
Event
Patrick van Aanholt → Giannino Vianello
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Teo Quintero
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
71'
Event
Jonathan de Guzmán → Shunsuke Mito
5th Substitution
71'
64'
Event
Ilias Bronkhorst → Rick Meissen
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Noah Naujoks
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Julian Baas
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
54'
Event
Ayoni Santos
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
53'
50'
Event
Arthur Zagré
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Milan Zonneveld → Saïd Bakari
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Julian Baas → Pelle Clement
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Vito van Crooij
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
40'
14'
Event
Giannino Vianello
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Milan Zonneveld scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Update Update
VAR decision: goal disallowed due to handball by Milan Zonneveld.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ayoni Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Lauritsen takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Milan Zonneveld scores, bringing the match to 3-3.
90
Attempt Attempt
Milan Zonneveld scores with a left-footed shot.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Patrick Van Aanholt receives a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
Marvin Young takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Alexander De Guzman takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
86
Update Update
Adam Carlen comes on for Noah Naujoks.
86
Update Update
Szymon Wlodarczyk comes on for Derensili Sanches Fernandes.
86
Attempt Attempt
Ayoni Santos takes a left-footed shot but misses.
85
Attempt Attempt
Milan Zonneveld takes a right-footed shot but misses.
79
Update Update
Jens Toornstra comes on for Joshua Kitolano.
75
Update Update
Jerroldino Armantrading replaces Mike van Duinen.
73
Attempt Attempt
Joshua Kitolano takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
73
Attempt Attempt
Julian Baas takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
71
Update Update
Patrick Van Aanholt replaces Giannino Vianello.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Teo Quintero receives a yellow card.
71
Update Update
Jonathan Alexander De Guzman replaces Shunsuke Mito.
68
Attempt Attempt
Irakli Yegoian takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Derensili Sanches Fernandes takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Lennard Hartjes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Arthur Zagre takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
62
Update Update
Noah Naujoks scores with a header.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Noah Naujoks scores, making it 1-3.
61
Attempt Attempt
Gyan de Regt takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Teo Quintero's header shot misses the target.
59
Attempt Attempt
Shunsuke Mito takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Attempt Attempt
Noah Naujoks takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Irakli Yegoian takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Julian Baas receives a yellow card.
53
Attempt Attempt
Ayoni Santos takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
50
Attempt Attempt
Arthur Zagre scores with a right-footed shot.
50
Attempt Attempt
Arthur Zagre takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Lauritsen attempts a header but misses the shot.
47
Attempt Attempt
Derensili Sanches Fernandes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Milan Zonneveld is on, and Said Bakari is off.
46
Update Update
Julian Baas is on, and Pelle Clement is off.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Vito van Crooij receives a yellow card.
39
Attempt Attempt
Shunsuke Mito takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Vito van Crooij takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Lennard Hartjes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Derensili Sanches Fernandes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Derensili Sanches Fernandes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Giannino Vianello puts the score at 0-1.
12
Attempt Attempt
Lennard Hartjes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Giannino Vianello takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Irakli Yegoian takes a right-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Shunsuke Mito takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 Excelsior. Structural assessment: Excelsior exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.