Spain vs Austria Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
Los Angeles Stadium Thu, 2 Jul - 7:00 PM
World Cup
Spain ESP
3 Winner 0
Austria AUT
Full Time Thu, 2 Jul 7:00 PM
Round of 32
Mikel Oyarzabal - 89', 36'
Pedro Porro - 66'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Spain secured a 3-0 victory over Austria with a halftime score of 1-0. Spain controlled 64 percent of possession compared to Austria's 36 percent. The expected goals stood at 2.5 for Spain and 0.45 for Austria creating a differential of 2.05. No red cards were shown to either side. The stronger team Spain emerged as the winner in line with pre-match indicators. The outcome proved consistent with the xG metrics recorded during the contest. A significant deviation of 28.3 percent was noted for Spain relative to initial projections.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Spain recorded a significant 28.3 percent deviation from pre-match projections in the 3-0 result.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics remained in line with established patterns for both teams throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome aligned directly with the xG figures of 2.5 for Spain and 0.45 for Austria.
  • Market alignment: The result proved consistent with available market indicators for the contest.
  • xG expectations: Spain met or exceeded xG expectations while Austria remained below projected output levels.
  • Event impact: The 1-0 halftime score shaped second half adjustments that produced the final 3-0 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards for both teams eliminated any potential distortion to match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Nyberg

Sweden 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

M. Beigi

1st Assistant

Sweden

A. Söderkvist

2nd Assistant

Sweden

D. Beida

4th Official

Mauritania

League averages

World Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.4
Yellow cards / match 2.07
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.12
Spain L. De la Fuente Castillo
L. De la Fuente Castillo
VS
Austria R. Rangnick
R. Rangnick
2.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Uruguay Rank: W
Saudi Arabia Rank: W
Cape Verde Islands Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Algeria Rank: D
Argentina Rank: L
Jordan Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Spain
71.66%
Draw
19.04%
Away Austria
9.31%

Movement

Changes since opening
Spain
-26.23%
Draw
+17.12%
Austria
+9.11%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.18
13.58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Spain
Austria
Power Score
25.18
13.58
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
2
24

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Spain — Opponent-weighted form score
Austria — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spain Austria

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Spain

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Austria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Spain ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Austria
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.03
17.36
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.36
42.03
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Spain +2.22 Efficiency Index
vs
Austria -2.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Spain
Austria
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Spain
vs
Austria
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Spain Austria
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
28%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.71 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Spain Austria
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
0%
28%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.00 vs -0.71
Spain
Austria
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Spain
vs
Austria
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Spain Austria
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Spain 0.29
Austria 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Spain Austria
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Spain 0.00
Austria 0.04
Spain
Austria
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ESP had peak pressure around 41'.
  • ESP started the game with stronger pressure.
ESP Pressure AUT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ESP reached the top pressure at 41' (91.69).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Spain ESP Home
0 matches
Austria AUT Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-03T00:00:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
U. Simón Mendibil
Spain
23 U. Simón Mendibil
P. Porro Sauceda
Spain
12 P. Porro Sauceda
P. Cubarsí Paredes
Spain
22 P. Cubarsí Paredes
A. Laporte
Substitution
Spain
14 A. Laporte
M. Cucurella
Spain
24 M. Cucurella
Rodri
Spain
16 (C) Rodri
P. López
Substitution
Spain
20 P. López
L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
Substitution
Spain
19 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
D. Olmo Carvajal
Substitution
Spain
10 D. Olmo Carvajal
A. Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
15 A. Rodríguez
M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Spain
21 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Pitch
A. Schlager
Austria
1 A. Schlager
K. Laimer
Austria
20 K. Laimer
D. Olatukunbo Alaba
Austria
8 (C) D. Olatukunbo Alaba
K. Danso
Austria
3 K. Danso
S. Posch
Substitution
Austria
5 S. Posch
X. Schlager
Substitution
Austria
4 X. Schlager
N. Seiwald
Substitution
Austria
6 N. Seiwald
M. Sabitzer
Austria
9 M. Sabitzer
P. Wanner
Austria
24 P. Wanner
R. Schmid
Substitution
Austria
18 R. Schmid
M. Gregoritsch
Substitution
Austria
11 M. Gregoritsch

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 02, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 32
Stadium :
Los Angeles Stadium
Capacity :
70242
Attendance :
70492
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Glenn Nyberg
Mahbod Beigi
Andreas Söderkvist
Dahane Beida

Statistics

Possession
ESP
64%
AUT
36%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 4
78 Dangerous attacks 25
64 Possession 36
9 Corners 0
20 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

65 Ball Safe 69
7 Goal Kicks 8
15 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
15 Throwins 7
1 Hit Woodwork 0
12 Successful Headers 3
3 Assists 0
0 Injuries 1
7 Dribble Attempts 5
7 Successful Dribbles 5
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31

Attacking

121 Attacks 66

Possession

23 Long Passes 14
629 Passes 346
570 Successful Passes 284
91 Successful Passes Percentage 82
21 Key Passes 4

Defensive

0 Saves 6
19 Tackles 16
6 Interceptions 7
53 Duels Won 30

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

2 Offsides 5
8 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Glenn Nyberg

Starting XI ▼

23
Unai Simón
Unai Simón Goalkeeper
6.89
12
Pedro Porro
Pedro Porro Defender
8.58
14
Aymeric Laporte
Aymeric Laporte Defender
7.61
2
Marc Pubill
Marc Pubill
Defender90+3'
22
Pau Cubarsí
Pau Cubarsí Defender
7.51
24
Marc Cucurella
Marc Cucurella Defender
8.06
10
Dani Olmo
Dani Olmo Midfielder
7.21
6
Mikel Merino
Mikel Merino
Midfielder71'
6.6
15
Álex Baena
Álex Baena Midfielder
7.77
7
Ferran Torres
Ferran Torres
Attacker71'
6.42
16
Rodri
Rodri (C) Midfielder
7.7
19
Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal Midfielder
7.21
9
Gavi
Gavi
Midfielder85'
6.56
20
Pedri
Pedri Midfielder
7.02
8
Fabián Ruiz
Fabián Ruiz
Midfielder90+3'
21
Mikel Oyarzabal
Mikel Oyarzabal Attacker
2
8.93
Referee : Glenn Nyberg

Starting XI ▼

1
Alexander Schlager
Alexander Schlager Goalkeeper
7.3
3
Kevin Danso
Kevin Danso Defender
6.37
5
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Defender
6.51
22
Alexander Prass
Alexander Prass
Defender85'
6.18
8
David Alaba
David Alaba (C) Defender
6.63
20
Konrad Laimer
Konrad Laimer Defender
6.24
4
Xaver Schlager
Xaver Schlager Midfielder
6.13
10
Florian Grillitsch
Florian Grillitsch
Midfielder46'
6.64
6
Nicolas Seiwald
Nicolas Seiwald Midfielder
6.51
17
Carney Chukwuemeka
Carney Chukwuemeka
Midfielder46'
6.19
9
Marcel Sabitzer
Marcel Sabitzer Midfielder
6.76
18
Romano Schmid
Romano Schmid Midfielder
6.55
14
Sasa Kalajdzic
Sasa Kalajdzic
Attacker60'
6.09
24
Paul Wanner
Paul Wanner Midfielder
6.26
11
Michael Gregoritsch
Michael Gregoritsch Attacker
6.19
7
Marko Arnautovic
Marko Arnautovic
Attacker60'
6.34

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marc Pubill → Aymeric Laporte
9th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Fabián Ruiz → Pedri
10th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Mikel Oyarzabal
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
89'
Event
Gavi → Lamine Yamal
7th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Alexander Prass → Stefan Posch
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Stefan Posch
Holding / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Mikel Merino → Dani Olmo
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Ferran Torres → Álex Baena
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Pedro Porro
Header / 2nd Goal
66'
60'
Event
Marko Arnautovic → Michael Gregoritsch
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Sasa Kalajdzic → Romano Schmid
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Carney Chukwuemeka → Nicolas Seiwald
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Florian Grillitsch → Xaver Schlager
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mikel Oyarzabal
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
36'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Fabian Ruiz Pena comes on for Pedro Gonzalez Lopez.
90
Update Update
On comes Marc Pubill, off goes Aymeric Laporte.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ferran Torres Garcia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mikel Oyarzabal scores to make it 3-0, assisted by Marc Cucurella.
89
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Oyarzabal scores with a right-footed shot.
87
Update Update
Offside.
86
Update Update
On comes Pablo Martin Paez Gaviria, off goes Lamine Yamal.
86
Update Update
Offside.
86
Update Update
On Alexander Prass, off Stefan Posch.
85
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Yamal takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stefan Posch receives a yellow card.
82
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Posch takes a header shot but misses.
79
Attempt Attempt
Carney Chukwuemeka takes a right-footed shot but misses.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
78
Attempt Attempt
Ferran Torres Garcia attempts a header but misses the shot.
71
Update Update
Mikel Merino comes on for Dani Olmo.
71
Update Update
Ferran Torres Garcia comes on for Alejandro Baena Rodriguez.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Pedro Porro scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Alejandro Baena Rodriguez.
66
Attempt Attempt
Dani Olmo takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Porro takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
62
Attempt Attempt
Dani Olmo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
62
Update Update
Offside.
61
Attempt Attempt
Sasa Kalajdzic attempts a header but misses the shot.
60
Update Update
Sasa Kalajdzic is on, and Romano Schmid is off.
60
Update Update
Marko Arnautovic comes on for Michael Gregoritsch.
59
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Yamal's left-footed shot is blocked.
59
Update Update
Offside.
58
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Baena Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Hernandez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Oyarzabal takes a header but misses the shot.
49
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Oyarzabal takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Florian Grillitsch comes on for Xaver Schlager.
46
Update Update
Carney Chukwuemeka comes on for Nicolas Seiwald.
45
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Seiwald's left-footed shot is blocked.
45
Update Update
Offside.
45
Update Update
Offside.
45
Update Update
Offside.
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alejandro Baena Rodriguez with his right foot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Yamal takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Attempt Attempt
Aymeric Laporte takes a left-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Oyarzabal has a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Yamal's right-footed shot is saved.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mikel Oyarzabal scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Marc Cucurella.
36
Attempt Attempt
Shot! Mikel Oyarzabal scores with a left-footed shot.
35
Attempt Attempt
David Alaba takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Update Update
Offside.
33
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Oyarzabal takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Yamal's right-footed shot is saved.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Update Update
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Attempt Attempt
Dani Olmo's right-footed shot is blocked.
8
Update Update
Aymeric Laporte's header is blocked.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
6
Update Update
Offside.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Yamal takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Glenn Nyberg.

CONCLUSION

The 3-0 scoreline reflected Spain's dominance in possession and chance creation against Austria. With expected goals heavily favoring the home side the result followed expected patterns without notable variance. The halftime lead of 1-0 provided a stable platform for further additions in the second period. No disciplinary actions altered the structural balance of play. Overall metrics confirmed alignment between performance data and the recorded outcome. Spain maintained control across key phases while Austria struggled to generate meaningful opportunities. This performance underscored consistent execution from the stronger side in the fixture.

Spain vs Austria preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

World Cup, World View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Dan A

Dan A creates clear football match previews built around team form, performance trends, and practical pre-match insights.