Southampton vs Derby County Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
St. Mary's Stadium Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Southampton SOU
2 Winner 1
Derby County DRB
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 42 Regular Season
Taylor Harwood-Bellis - 69'
Leo Scienza - 62'
Goal
|
Goal
Carlton Morris - 38'

CONTEXT

The match is finished with Southampton recording a 2-1 victory over Derby County at full time. Southampton were the stronger side and entered the fixture with pre-match expectations heavily in their favor. The result showed only minimal deviation from those expectations, as the home team overcame a 0-1 halftime deficit to claim all three points through two second-half goals. This outcome aligned with the pre-match projection. Southampton dominated possession at 62 percent to Derby County's 38 percent. No red cards were issued, and the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations for the stronger team. With expected goals data unavailable, the final score still reflected Southampton's overall control and confirmed the pre-match view that they were likely to prevail with limited surprise. The win reinforces Southampton's status as the superior performer on the day, producing a result that matched both their efficiency metrics and the anticipated direction of the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Southampton showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Kitchen

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

O. Mackey

4th Official

G. Byrne

2nd Assistant

S. Hudson

1st Assistant

Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
VS
Derby County J. Eustace
J. Eustace
1.77
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.72
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wrexham Rank: W
Oxford United Rank: W
Norwich City Rank: W
Coventry City Rank: W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: D
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Stoke City Rank: W
Coventry City Rank: L
Birmingham City Rank: W
Portsmouth Rank: W
Millwall Rank: L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 9 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Southampton
97.43%
Draw
2.38%
Away Derby County
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Southampton
+2.2%
Draw
-2.2%
Derby County
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
42.07
25.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Southampton
Derby County
Power Score
42.07
25.44
League Position
5
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Derby County — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Southampton Derby County

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Southampton

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Derby County

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Southampton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Derby County
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.97
27.76
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.76
30.97
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Southampton +0.33 Efficiency Index
vs
Derby County -0.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Southampton
Derby County
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Southampton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Derby County
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Southampton Derby County
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Southampton Derby County
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Southampton
Derby County
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Southampton
vs
Derby County
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Southampton Derby County
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Southampton 0.18
Derby County 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Southampton Derby County
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Southampton 0.03
Derby County 0.02
Southampton
Derby County
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SOU had peak pressure around 22'.
  • DRB started the game with stronger pressure.
SOU Pressure DRB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SOU reached the top pressure at 22' (78.34).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Southampton SOU Home
17 matches
Derby County DRB Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
9
Draws
9
3
Losses
5
Goals
25
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
25
+6
Goal Difference
-6

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:07:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Peretz
Israel
41 D. Peretz
J. Bree
Substitution
England
14 J. Bree
T. Harwood-Bellis
England
6 T. Harwood-Bellis
J. Stephens
England
5 J. Stephens
R. Manning
Republic of Ireland
3 R. Manning
C. Jander
Germany
20 C. Jander
F. Downes
England
4 F. Downes
T. Fellows
Substitution
England
18 T. Fellows
F. Azaz
Substitution
England
10 F. Azaz
L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
Substitution
Brazil
13 L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
R. Stewart
Substitution
Scotland
11 R. Stewart
Pitch
R. O'Donnell
England
12 R. O'Donnell
M. Johnston
Substitution
Scotland
22 M. Johnston
M. Clarke
England
5 M. Clarke
D. Sanderson
England
28 D. Sanderson
J. Ward
England
23 J. Ward
D. Ozoh
Substitution
England
18 D. Ozoh
L. Travis
Substitution
England
27 L. Travis
B. Clark
Substitution
England
42 B. Clark
S. Szmodics
England
19 S. Szmodics
J. Banel
Substitution
Netherlands
34 J. Banel
C. Morris
England
9 C. Morris

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 11, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 42 · Regular Season
Stadium :
St. Mary's Stadium
Capacity :
32384
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Oliver Mackey
George Byrne
Shaun Hudson
Andrew Kitchen

Statistics

Possession
SOU
59%
DRB
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 4
84 Dangerous attacks 31
62 Possession 38
6 Corners 2
14 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

17 Dribble Attempts 11
14 Throwins 19
12 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 5
58 Ball Safe 71
5 Goal Kicks 12
14 Successful Headers 12
8 Successful Dribbles 5
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
2 Assists 0

Attacking

104 Attacks 83
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

460 Passes 290
83 Successful Passes Percentage 74
384 Successful Passes 216
63 Long Passes 68
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
14 Key Passes 7
35 Successful Long Passes 30

Defensive

7 Interceptions 11
20 Tackles 23
3 Saves 3

Build-up

34 Total Crosses 17
6 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

8 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Andrew Kitchen

Starting XI ▼

41
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz Goalkeeper
3
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning Defender
5
Jack Stephens
Jack Stephens Defender
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis Defender
14
James Bree
James Bree Defender
15
Nathan Wood
Nathan Wood
Defender87'
4
Flynn Downes
Flynn Downes Midfielder
10
Finn Azaz
Finn Azaz Midfielder
24
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Midfielder75'
13
Leo Scienza
Leo Scienza Midfielder
23
Samuel Edozie
Samuel Edozie
Midfielder75'
18
Tom Fellows
Tom Fellows Midfielder
27
Kuryu Matsuki
Kuryu Matsuki
Midfielder64'
20
Caspar Jander
Caspar Jander Midfielder
11
Ross Stewart
Ross Stewart Attacker
9
Cyle Larin
Cyle Larin
Attacker64'
Referee : Andrew Kitchen

Starting XI ▼

12
Richard O'Donnell
Richard O'Donnell Goalkeeper
5
Matt Clarke
Matt Clarke Defender
22
Max Johnston
Max Johnston Defender
3
Craig Forsyth
Craig Forsyth
Defender67'
23
Joe Ward
Joe Ward Defender
28
Dion Sanderson
Dion Sanderson Defender
18
David Ozoh
David Ozoh Midfielder
6
Sondre Langås
Sondre Langås
Defender67'
19
Sammie Szmodics
Sammie Szmodics Midfielder
27
Lewis Travis
Lewis Travis Midfielder
15
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
Attacker84'
34
Jaydon Banel
Jaydon Banel Midfielder
37
Owen Eames
Owen Eames
Midfielder66'
42
Bobby Clark
Bobby Clark Midfielder
29
Oscar Fraulo
Oscar Fraulo
Midfielder9'
9
Carlton Morris
Carlton Morris Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Cyle Larin
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Nathan Wood → James Bree
10th Substitution
87'
84'
Event
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen → Lewis Travis
9th Substitution
Event
Shea Emmanuel Charles → Finn Azaz
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Samuel Edozie → Leo Scienza
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Header / 3rd Goal
69'
67'
Event
Sondre Langås → David Ozoh
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Craig Forsyth → Max Johnston
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Owen Eames → Jaydon Banel
4th Substitution
Event
Cyle Larin → Ross Stewart
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Kuryu Matsuki → Tom Fellows
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Leo Scienza
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
62'
55'
Event
Oscar Fraulo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
53'
Event
Dion Sanderson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Carlton Morris
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
9'
Event
Oscar Fraulo → Bobby Clark
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Southampton winning 2-1 against Derby County.
90
Update Update
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen of Derby County committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki of Southampton won a free kick in defense.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cyle Larin of Southampton receives a yellow card.
88
Update Update
Flynn Downes from Southampton won a free kick in defense.
88
Update Update
Owen Eames from Derby County commits a foul.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Nathan Wood replaces James Bree.
87
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Edozie from Southampton missed a chance with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen replaces Lewis Travis.
84
Update Update
Ryan Manning of Southampton won a free kick in defense.
84
Update Update
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen commits dangerous play for Derby County.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Samuel Edozie replaces Léo Scienza.
75
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Finn Azaz from Southampton.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Shea Charles replaces Finn Azaz due to injury.
73
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Finn Azaz from Southampton takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved.
72
Corner Corner
Derby County wins a corner after Taylor Harwood-Bellis concedes.
72
Attempt Attempt
Carlton Morris from Derby County had a left-footed shot from the center of the box blocked. The assist came from Owen Eames, who headed the ball.
70
Update Update
Cyle Larin commits a foul against Southampton.
70
Update Update
Oscar Fraulo from Derby County won a free kick in an attacking position.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Southampton 2, Derby County 1. Taylor Harwood-Bellis scores for Southampton with a header from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Ryan Manning's cross.
68
Update Update
Fouled by Flynn Downes of Southampton.
68
Update Update
Fouled by Oscar Fraulo of Derby County.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Craig Forsyth replaces Max Johnston.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Sondre Langås replaces David Ozoh.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Owen Eames replaces Jaydon Banel.
66
Corner Corner
Cyle Larin from Southampton misses a chance, heading the ball from a few meters over the goal and wide to the left. The assist came from Léo Scienza, who delivered a cross after a corner.
65
Corner Corner
Southampton wins a corner after Joe Ward concedes.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Kuryu Matsuki replaces Tom Fellows.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Cyle Larin replaces Ross Stewart.
63
Attempt Attempt
Jaydon Banel from Derby County misses a chance as his right-footed shot from the right side of the box goes over the goal. Oscar Fraulo provided the assist.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Léo Scienza scores for Southampton with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Finn Azaz.
61
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Sam Szmodics from Derby County takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Daniel Peretz from Southampton. The assist was made by Lewis Travis.
59
Update Update
Lewis Travis from Derby County won a free kick in defense.
59
Update Update
Lewis Travis from Derby County won a free kick in defense.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Ross Stewart - Southampton.
57
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Tom Fellows of Southampton headed the ball from a few meters out.
55
Attempt Attempt
James Bree from Southampton misses a chance with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Oscar Fraulo from Derby County receives a yellow card for a foul.
54
Update Update
Tom Fellows of Southampton won a free kick in defense.
54
Update Update
Foul by Oscar Fraulo of Derby County.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Dion Sanderson of Derby County.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dion Sanderson of Derby County receives a yellow card for a foul.
53
Update Update
Ross Stewart of Southampton won a free kick in an attacking position.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Matt Clarke concedes.
45
Update Update
Foul by Sam Szmodics of Derby County.
45
Update Update
Finn Azaz from Southampton was awarded a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Fouled by Flynn Downes of Southampton.
45
Attempt Attempt
James Bree's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Léo Scienza's cross.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Carlton Morris of Derby County won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Southampton 0, Derby County 1.
45
Update Update
Foul by Jaydon Banel of Derby County.
45
Update Update
Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton won a free kick in defense.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity for Southampton as Taylor Harwood-Bellis heads the ball from the center of the box, but it goes wide to the left. The assist came from Ryan Manning's cross.
44
Update Update
Foul by Dion Sanderson - Derby County.
43
Update Update
Léo Scienza from Southampton won a free kick on the left wing.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Ross Stewart for Southampton.
41
Update Update
Taylor Harwood-Bellis of Southampton won a free kick in defense.
41
Update Update
Foul by Joe Ward of Derby County.
40
Update Update
Offside called against Southampton. Tom Fellows is offside.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by David Ozoh of Derby County.
39
Update Update
Offside - Southampton. Tom Fellows is in offside.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Derby County takes the lead 1-0 with Carlton Morris scoring from close range with a right-footed shot into the top right corner after a corner.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after a concession by Finn Azaz.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Flynn Downes of Southampton.
36
Update Update
David Ozoh of Derby County won a free kick in defense.
36
Attempt Attempt
Léo Scienza from Southampton attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved by Derby County's goalkeeper Richard O'Donnell, positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Flynn Downes.
35
Attempt Attempt
Tom Fellows' left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Ross Stewart provided the assist.
33
Update Update
Léo Scienza fouled by Southampton.
33
Update Update
Jaydon Banel from Derby County was awarded a free kick in defense.
31
Attempt Attempt
Jaydon Banel's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Carlton Morris of Derby County had a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but it was blocked on the left side.
29
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Richard O'Donnell from Derby County.
28
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Manning from Southampton misses a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Carlton Morris of Derby County.
28
Update Update
Taylor Harwood-Bellis of Southampton won a free kick in an attacking position.
27
Attempt Attempt
Carlton Morris of Derby County attempts a header from the center of the box, but it is saved.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Joe Ward concedes.
21
Update Update
Offside called against Derby County. Sam Szmodics is in an offside position.
20
Update Update
Handball by Ross Stewart of Southampton.
19
Attempt Attempt
Caspar Jander's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Tom Fellows.
18
Attempt Attempt
Finn Azaz from Southampton missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box. Caspar Jander provided the assist.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Matt Clarke concedes.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Matt Clarke concedes.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Dion Sanderson concedes.
10
Attempt Attempt
Max Johnston from Derby County had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, but it went just to the left. Carlton Morris provided the assist.
9
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Oscar Fraulo replaces Bobby Clark due to injury.
8
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Bobby Clark of Derby County.
5
Update Update
Foul committed by Carlton Morris of Derby County.
5
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Sam Szmodics from Derby County takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, which is saved in the right corner by Daniel Peretz from Southampton. The assist comes from Jaydon Banel.
5
Update Update
Taylor Harwood-Bellis of Southampton won a free kick in defense.
3
Update Update
Carlton Morris of Derby County won a free kick in an attacking position.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by Taylor Harwood-Bellis of Southampton.
2
Update Update
Lewis Travis of Derby County won a free kick in defense.
2
Update Update
Foul committed by Caspar Jander of Southampton.
1
Update Update
Léo Scienza from Southampton won a free kick in defense.
1
Update Update
Foul committed by Jaydon Banel of Derby County.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Southampton exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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